The models as well as the synoptic pattern both are suggesting the possibility of snow showers for much of Kentucky Saturday night. The GFS shows a fast-moving piece of energy rotating through the longwave trough overnight Saturday which will help to reinforce the cold air for Sunday. The NAM shows a couple of pieces of energy moving through the trough as early as Saturday morning Continue reading
Update: 3/1 6:00 am: The SPC has upgraded western KY to a moderate risk of severe weather although the greatest risk of tornadoes remains south and west over MS, AL and TN. As in the previous update, the key will be how much sunshine we get Thursday ahead of the front and how far north the 60+ dewpoint air will advect.
Update: 2/27 2:00 pm: The SPC site is now working and you can read their discussion here. Both the SPC and the NWS Louisville office believe the greatest instability and hence, the greatest severe weather risk will be over TN, MS and AL although there is still a slight risk for severe weather, including tornadoes, across KY. The key will be how much sunshine we get Thursday ahead of the front and how far north the 60+ dewpoint air will advect.
Original post: For over a week now I have been suggesting that there will be a “return to winter” during the first week of March (see Bottom Line point #2) and that March should come in like a lion. The strong storm currently battering the West Coast will follow a similar path as the recent weekend storm and eject from the Southwest into the central Plains Wednesday, setting the stage for more severe weather across the southern tier states as well as anothern 12″+ blizzard for parts of the northern Plains. While this storm has a similar synoptic setup as the weekend storm, there are some very important differences that will affect the mid-south. Continue reading
While it is still early to project what type of hurricane season the Atlantic basin will have in 2007, it is worth nothing that computer models anticipate that La Nina conditions are expected to rapidly develop over the next few months. What does this mean for the 2007 hurricane season? Continue reading
The 2007 tornado season is off to a deadly start, as there have been nearly twice as many tornadoes as usual thus far (65 vs. 38) and many more deaths than usual (23 vs. 2). There is still the potential for a dangerous severe weather outbreak this weekend from the southern plains into the mid-south. Continue reading
Even though the last 30 days (1/20-2/18) ranks as one of the 10 coldest in the past 110 years, the wintry weather will be nothing more than a memory during the last week of February. Temperatures will surge into the 60s by midweek and the NWS says that 70 degrees is a possibility for Saturday (2/24). However, this return to spring also brings with it the possibility of severe weather (including tornadoes) for the mid-south. Continue reading
The NWS in Louisville is predicting 1-2 inches of snow for much of Kentucky Friday night/Saturday. There is some concern that a more northerly track will lessen snow amounts across Bowling Green. Read more here. With the warmup coming next week combined with the fact that March snowfall in Bowling Green is climatologically rare (only 0.1″ total since March 2002), this could be the last chance to enjoy snow until next winter.
Way back on the first ever post on this blog (“The winter thus far“) I talked about the incredible warmth of December and early January and how some climate researchers were already claiming that 2007 would be the warmest year in recorded history. However, at the very bottom of the discussion I made this prediction… Continue reading
At the halfway point of February 2007, the temperatures departures are quite impressive. Bowling Green is at -9.2 F, Louisville is at -12.3 F, and Lexington is at -13.6 F. Using the latest 7-day forecast from the NWS, by February 21st, the departures for the month should be Bowling Green at -9.2 F, Louisville at -12.1 F, and Lexington at -13.3 F with only seven days left in the month. So what can we expect for the last week of February? Even with a warmup, where will February 2007 rank among the all-time coldest? Continue reading
While we bask in 50+ degree air here in south-central KY Tuesday, a storm of historic proportions is ravaging the Midwest, mid-Atlantic and New England. There is an incredibly large area of blizzard warnings (minimum criteria – falling and/or blowing snow frequently reducing visibility to 35 mph.) stretching from western Illinois to eastern Ohio. Snowfall forecasts of 18-30 inches (with isolated areas of >40″) are being predicted for the area stretching from central PA to northern ME. Transportation along the major east-west interstates such as I-70, I-80, and I-90, could be shut down for up to a couple of days as winds gusting up to 35 mph will produce whiteout conditions and drifts of several feet through Friday. Temperatures behind this storm will be among the coldest of the year for the Midwest and New England, with highs in the teens and wind chills well below zero. The parts of NY that received over 11 feet of lake-effect snow recently will receive an additional 16-30 inches from this storm.