Bowling Green continued its streak of five consecutive months of below normal precipitation Saturday, March 31st. Since November 1st, Bowling Green has had a cumulative rainfall deficit of 8.63 inches, making it the 5th driest such period since 1893. March was the driest (3rd all-time) and warmest relative to normal (9th all-time) of the five-month period. But does the dry start to the year necessarily mean that south-central KY will have a dry summer? Continue reading
I did a short segment on the Bowling Green ABC affiliate WBKO this afternoon. To see my broadcast TV debut, click here. I acquitted myself well except for one small goof. Houses are generally not completely destroyed until winds reach 200 mph, not 100 mph as I said in the video. Actually, most modern houses are structurally designed to withstand winds of up to 100 mph (they should only lose windows and parts of the roof to this point). Beyond 100 mph is when they start to break apart. At 200 mph, nothing will be left but the slab.
For an excellent discussion on the differences between the old F-scale and the new EF-scale, click here.
NOAA has produced a report that shows that while winter (Dec-Feb) across the United States was near normal, globally, the winter of 2006-07 was the warmest such period since measurements began in 1880. You can access the entire report here. It is pretty apparent that this past winter was very warm world-wide when you look at an image like this. The good news is that precipitation was up globally.
After a two week absence that has kept the Southeast free of severe weather, the subtropical jet stream will make a return next week, which should help to alleviate developing drought conditions in this region. A look at the current upper level flow shows a ridge over California and the polar jet stream riding over the ridge and diving into the Midwest, which is the source of our cooler than normal weekend weather. This West Coast ridge has pushed temperatures to near the century mark over Arizona. A strong Pacific storm will lower heights along the West Coast and raise heights over the central plains, which will push temperatures into the 70s and 80s in that region. Continue reading
After a mild week, much colder air is expected to return to Kentucky for the weekend. I expect highs Saturday in the middle to upper 40s and highs in the low 50s for Sunday. Normal highs for this time of year around 60 degrees. Spring should return early next week as temperatures should soar back into the low 70s. There are no signs of severe weather for the mid-south anywhere on the horizon.
While the CPC is showing mild weather across the U.S. through 3/22, I expect this to be changed radically in the coming days. Both the GFS ensembles and the ECMWF show the return of a wintry pattern to the Great Lakes and Northeast. As mentioned yesterday, some of the ensembles had been hinting at a cold clipper breaking down the flat ridge over the midsection of the country. Today, nearly all of the GFS ensembles and the European suggest that winter is not over yet. Continue reading
NOTE: If you’ve noticed I haven’t had a weather post in over a week that would be because were are in a very tranquil weather pattern. March may have come in like a lion but it is definitely coasting through mid-month like a lamb, as I predicted back on February 26th (see the last sentence). Quiet times like this give me the opportunity to post on statistical climatology and global warming.
College students everywhere will be flocking to beaches over the next few days so I thought I’d produce a Spring Break forecast for popular vacation hotspots. If you are going to a place that I don’t mention, add a comment and I will update the forecast with the new location. Continue reading
From the Paducah NWS office website…
On Friday, March 16, WFO Paducah will host the Infamous Tornadoes Severe Weather Seminar, which will review our nationâ€™s deadliest tornado, the Great Tri-State Tornado of March 18, 1925, and our nationâ€™s deadliest tornado of this decade, the November 6, 2005 Evansville tornado. The conference will feature Dr. Charles A. Doswell III, who will share modern day research findings on the Tri-State Tornado, along with Ron Przybylinski, who will share research findings on the November 6, 2005 Evansville tornado. The conference will be held in Carterville, Illinois at the John A. Logan College Oâ€™Neil Auditorium. If you wish to attend please be sure to register using the link here. Additional information will be posted to this web page as the event draws closer.