Back in the first week of June I wrote here that Kentucky needed at least 4 inches of rain during June to either improve the drought conditions or maintain it at a moderate level. Unfortunately, much of Kentucky currently has less than one inch of rain through the 20th and many locations, including Bowling Green, could end up with the driest June ever. This will push our drought conditions to severe and possibly exceptional levels over the next few months and will likely make the drought of 2007 one of the worst in the past 100 years. Continue reading →

As predicted in my summer forecast posted here, the Climate Prediction Center has changed their summer drought forecast to reflect my idea that…

…I think the summer of 2007 could be the warmest since 1999 and I think drought conditions will worsen across the Commonwealth.

Continue reading →

Bowling Green tentatively set a new record high minimum this morning with a low of 78 degrees, breaking the previous record of 76 degrees set in 1933. This record is only tentative since the temperature may fall below 76 degrees during a thunderstorm this afternoon/evening or simply due to diurnal cooling before midnight.

UPDATE: The temperature at Bowling Green fell to 71 degrees at 12:53 pm following the thunderstorm, thus there will be no record high minimum today.

On Sunday I mentioned that “Mid 90 possible for later this week“. My forecast read…

I foresee highs in south-central Kentucky and the Nashville metro area as high as 92-96 for Thursday and 94-98 for Friday with lows in the lower 70s; take a couple of degrees off those highs each day for the Bluegrass. The limiting factor in reaching those highs (especially Friday) will be the interaction of a cut-off low progged to be located off the mid-atlantic coast with the cold front.

Well, the upper level low will be further out to sea which means we will experience a potentially historic one-day heat wave. Continue reading →

Back on March 31 I posted here about the potential for a summer drought based on the developing La Nina and I used some statistical information to show that the amount of precipitation that occurs over the winter is not necessarily a good predictor of summer rainfall. However, now that meteorological spring is officially in the books (Mar-May), it is possible to show that 2007 is very likely to be among top 30 driest years since 1895 according to past history. Continue reading →

The summer of 2007 is shaping up to be a hot and dry one for the mid-south. Here are the important factors…

1) A developing La Nina will keep the jet stream and storm systems to the north along the Canadian border

2) Quasi-stationary heat ridges supported by severe droughts over the Southwest and Southeast will weaken any storm that does move southward

3) Those same ridges could act as a saving grace by steering the remnants of an active Atlantic hurricane season into the mid-south

What does it all mean? Continue reading →

In my last post I mentioned the uncertainty of the models for the first full week of June

…”There is even great disagreement within the GFS ensembles as to how long the trough will remain in the Great Lakes. Ensemble solutions range from soaking rains for the mid-south to a strong ridge with 90+ temperatures.”

Well, it appears the 90+ temperatures is the solution that will verify. Continue reading →