A number of factors lead me to believe that August 2007 may go down as one of the all-time warmest and driest Augusts across the Mid-South.
1) August is the most stable of the three summer months, which diminishes the effect of convective processes to form thunderstorms
2) Severe to extreme drought conditions will lead to a feedback loop where lack of soil moisture will increase surface heating, which will in turn reduce soil moisture, which will increase surface heating…
3) Negatively-neutral ENSO conditions that are trending toward La Nina will keep troughs and cold fronts well north of the Mid-South
4) Short term models (GFS) show ridge maintaining position over central U.S. through at least mid-August and possibly through late August
Ranking of the 10 warmest Augusts in Bowling Green since 1888
1) 1936 | 83.5
2) 1900 | 82.4
3) 1995 | 82.3
4) 1918 | 81.9
5) 1980 | 81.7
6) 1937 | 80.8
7) 1983 | 80.5
8) 1947 | 80.4
9) 1909 | 80.3
10) 1924 | 80.3
2007 through 8/9: 85.7
Ranking of the 10 driest Augusts in Bowling Green since 1888
1) 1924 | 0.70
2) 1972 | 0.72
3) 1983 | 1.01
4) 1910 | 1.03
5) 1999 | 1.07
6) 1981 | 1.18
7) 1905 | 1.19
8) 1993 | 1.27
9) 1976 | 1.34
10) 1934 | 1.37
2007 through 8/8: 0.27
