Everything looks good for this storm from my previous post. As expected, the warm Gulf air mass and the SE ridge successfully advanced the line of scrimmage and pushed the storm track north and west, which will keep south-central KY mainly in the rain.
The storm will even track farther north and west than I originally thought so that the best snow will now extend from a Bloomington, IN to Cleveland, OH line (4-6 inches with more in NW Ohio).
The teleconnections suggest a split flow pattern with an active sub-tropical jet, which is also showing up on the GFS. I think the GFS is amplifying these storms too much in the long range, as the teleconnections do not support amplifying longwaves. With 4.55″ as of 12/14 in Bowling Green and 1-2+ inches of rain from the weekend storm, we could be looking at a 7 plus inch December with regards to precipitation, which would rank in the top ten. There are several wet-looking storms in the long range that will ride the sub-tropical jet, which will further help to eliminate the rainfall deficit for 2007.
I will be on hiatus for the next week (visiting relatives with dialup 56k modems) so I will not be looking at the weather until late next week.
