The GFS and ECMWF have very different interpretations of Easter weekend weather. While the GFS shows a couple of minor shortwaves rotating around the trough, the ECMWF has a blizzard for New England. How can two models that use the same physics equations and initialize with same data come up with such wildly different results? Continue reading →

Total snowfall accumulations at my house (6 miles east of Bowling Green) were 2.5″, with 2″ of that falling between 11 pm and 7 am this morning. Up to 4.5″ fell in western parts of Bowling Green where a nice convective band set up for several hours around midnight. Thus my forecast of 2-4″ total storm accumulations for Bowling Green with higher amounts in convective bands worked out well. The convective nature of the snowfall also illustrates why this type of storm is prone to major bust potential (ie., Paducah, Lexington). Continue reading →

Radar is showing convective banding taking place. The NWS in Louisville has even reported thundersnow from one of these convective bands. This will create tight snowfall gradients that will mean places within the same county could have wildly different snowfall totals. Continue reading →

A convective snow band with impressive vertical velocities gave Bowling Green a quick coating of snow this morning, but precipitation has turned back into a wintry mix of rain/sleet/snow as boundary layer temperatures are still above freezing. This first batch of wintry weather from the leading shortwave will come to an end by 8:30 am or so this morning. The models have not captured this well at all. Continue reading →

With all of the uncertainty between which model is right, which run, will it go east or west of the Appalachians, etc., I think it is important to step back and think about the synoptic pattern. The overall pattern idea of a two-part storm with frontogenetic cyclogenesis followed by phasing of the jet streams and subsequent deepening of the surface low still looks good. So why are the models trending colder when all winter the models have trended warmer as winter storms have approached the region? I’ll tell you why. Continue reading →

The synoptic evolution of the weekend storm appears somewhat similar to the Monday storm. Cyclogenesis along a cold front will occur as the northern and southern streams of the jet stream phase over the eastern United States. This will lead to two separate bouts of wintry weather: the first will occur from a leading shortwave Thursday night into Friday while the second will occur as the surface low along the Gulf Coast intensifies late Friday night into Saturday. Unfortunately, it appears that Bowling Green and Nashville will be on the wrong side of both of these systems. Continue reading →

The consensus of global forecast models develop a Nor’easter that will move up the East Coast this Friday. There will be accumulating snowfall on the NW edge of the precipitation shield somewhere over the TN valley. This means that places like Bowling Green and Nashville could see their first “big” snow of the year. Continue reading →