My last post two weeks ago ended with the following…

If this all happens as currently forecast, the 2nd half of June could end up cooler than normal due to a NW flow, but we may not see very much in the way of precipitation.

This turned out to be a good forecast, so much so that I haven’t even had to run the A.C. for the past week. Unfortunately, the lack of recent rainfall has me somewhat concerned since there doesn’t appear to be much relief in the long range forecast. Continue reading →

The 2nd in a series of weakening cold fronts will bring about a pattern change that will end the early-season heat wave and bring about a return to cooler weather. The first front will cross the Mid-South Tuesday and will knock 5 degrees off our highs (90 instead of 95) for Wednesday-Friday. The second front will cross the Mid-South Saturday and will knock another 5 degrees off our highs Sunday – Wednesday (85 instead of 90). By mid-June, most models show that a trough will return to the eastern United States, which will bring about cooler weather and possibly some rain. Continue reading →

One small change in the value of a teleconnection is all that was needed to change our weather from cool and wet to hot and dry. This is a perfect example of why seasonal forecasting is so difficult. Continue reading →