A complex two-part storm system will bring snow to the Deep South this weekend. Believe it or not, place like northeastern MS, northern AL, and much of the Carolinas could receive a couple of inches of snow while most of Kentucky gets a light coating. There is a good chance that places like Louisville and southern Indiana get shut out of this storm completely.
Current conditions Friday evening show two pieces of energy moving across the central U.S. A southern branch storm is evident over northern Texas and is associated with the stalled out cold front from the storm Thursday night. A northern branch feature is seen as a strong vorticity max over South Dakota and is associated with a snow shield over the central Plains. This northern branch feature is also associated with an arctic front. The models have had some difficulty trying to figure out whether or not these two features would merge, which would then serve to deepen a surface storm over the Southeast that could potentially run up the coast as a ‘noreaster.
The current model projections suggest that these pieces of energy will not merge. By Saturday morning, the southern branch surface low will be over northern GA while the northern branch vort max remains back over KS. As the surface low slides by to the south, there is a good chance for some light accumulating snow (maybe an inch) over central TN and southern KY, although it will most likely start as rain until the cold air from the arctic front turns the precipitation over to snow.
By Saturday evening, the overrunning snow from the southern branch surface low will begin the northeastward turn, which will bring some accumulating snow to the Bluegrass and eastern KY. The northern branch vort max will dive deep into the Deep South and bring some light accumulating snow to places that typically don’t see much snow (although this will be the second decent snow for the Deep South this winter).
Over the rest of the weekend, the northern branch vort max is expected to develop a surface low that could bring significant accumulating snow to parts of the Carolinas and into VA.