1. The majority of us in the mid south have seen periods of storms over the weekend, just enough to cancel those late afternoon and evening outdoor plans for some. However, Sunday night our friends to the north in Louisville saw the training of thunderstorms from south to north across the metro area and with rainfall rates over an inch an hour. This led to rapid rises in streams, creeks and other collectors of water. This was labeled a flash flood emergency by the NWS in Louisville with several water rescues. The forecast for this week is also included in this post.
link to NWS page on flooding.
2. This same disturbance should continue to develop several areas of showers and storms mainly across eastern sections of the mid south on Monday. Like Sunday heavy rainfall can add up quickly from any thunderstorms and lead to some flash flooding in a few spots. Highs should be around 80 after starting in the low 60’s.
Image of NAM radar for late Monday afternoon.
3. Several days ago the majority of the meteorological models showed a strong cold front with a chance of severe weather ahead and a fall preview behind it, even one run of the gfs had a close call with the S word. However, this front doesn’t look nearly as strong now on the models and the airmass behind it now looks to be pacific in origin which is a milder airmass. In fact the low from this front should cutoff over the plains for midweek. We will be ahead of this system which means continued southerly flow and the threat for more afternoon showers and storms for Tuesday and Wednesday, I don’t expect the spread in temperature to change much from Monday and with a very slow moving system cutoff from the jet any severe threat is very low.
4. There may be some leftover boundaries from this front on Thursday which may still lead to a passing shower or two. Again highs near 80 and lows in the lower 60’s.
5. Check back later in the week for my personal winter forecast for the mid south. I will give my view on the El-nino episode and more as well in that report.