Risk for 8-12″ of snow increasing; where is the question

Recent model trends of both the GFS (6z and 12z) and NAM 12z suggest that a band of 8-12″ of snow is increasingly likely for some portion of the Mid-South Friday into Saturday.

The models are now showing a stronger 500 mb shortwave and deeper surface low, which if correct, would result in more Gulf moisture being advected into the region. This coupled with the later start time to the storm would result in a band of 8-12″ snow amounts setting up somewhere around the KY/TN border. While it is too early to say if Bowling Green would be included in this band, I think the Bowling Green area is much more likely to see 6-8″ than 4-6″ from this storm. If the southern track storm does turn out to be stronger than modeled, then the higher snowfall amounts are likely.

What has me very intrigued about this storm is that the NAM, which had previously been weakening the surface low and only bringing 2-4″ of snow into the region, has now corrected course and is in agreement with the GFS, which has always shown 8-12″ for south-central KY. For what its worth, the last time Bowling Green received 8″ or more from a storm was March 1968.

Crystal Bergman

Wow! 1968? I moved to Bowling Green in 2001, and 2002 was the first winter I experienced there. I remember getting a snow that was probably around 5-6 inches, but I have never seen one of that magnitude since then. I remember from your Synoptic class that a low tracking across the Tennessee Valley puts BG in a very good position for snow, although it doesn’t happen very often. It will be interesting to see if it continues to hold that track!