Temperatures now are in the mid 20’s across the region which means when the snow starts it will stick to most everything. If you’re looking at the radar puzzled this morning it’s because of virga, precipitation that shows up on radar but evaporates before it reaches the surface this happens in the wintertime with cold and dry airmasses when humidity levels are below 75%,right now the humidity is a touch under 60%. looking at the radar the dark green shading area across western Tennessee is moving toward Bowling Green and that is fairly intense precipitation which would raise those humidty values quickly. The yellow is where snow could potentially fall at an inch per hour. Right now some light snow by 2 pm appears to be a safe bet based on the radar with moderate snow by late afternoon even with the roads well treated the evening commute will be hazardous.
As for storm totals I’m still sticking to the 5-9 as the gfs came in dryer keeping the mositure in thunderstorms to our south. the nam came in much wetter bringing a direct line of deep mositure into the region. From here on the meteorlogy will be looking at radar trends and observations. I also still can’t rule out a sleet pelet or two thrown in. My personal thinking is the gfs may be suffering to much from convective feedback while the 12z nam runs are often slightly to wet with systems than other runs.