With warmer-than-average temperatures finally here across the Mid-South, some showers and storms are sure to be on the way. It’s a beautiful day today across south central Kentucky with sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures soaring to 70 degrees, which is great considering the average for this time of year is in the mid-50s. We’ll have a very nice night as well since low temperatures should bottom out in the mid-40s. On Tuesday, a southerly flow will return to the area ahead of a strong low pressure center currently sitting over the central Plains. This low will bring showers to the area Tuesday night and into Wednesday complements of a low-level jet in the 35-40 knot range out of the south. It wouldn’t be surprising at all if we get some thunderstorms as well given the strong low-level jet, the available moisture, and the relatively cooler upper levels. However, there won’t be a lot of upper-level support for this system. The associated vorticity max at 500 mb will turn toward the north of the Ohio River, and the winds at 300 mb are not strong enough to create significant vertical wind shear throughout the wind profile, despite the fact that there will be decent wind veering.
So I expect some rain showers to arrive late tomorrow afternoon and evening, along with some thunderstorms that shouldn’t be severe in nature. The SPC says the low-level winds may be sufficient for supercellular development, but the probability appears to be low. These showers and storms will continue into Wednesday as well as the rest of the week given the slow-progression of this low across the Ohio Valley.
Enjoy the warm temperatures and Sun today, and check back on Wednesday for a look at the weather for the rest of your week.
