or rain.

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These graphics are from the cpc and noaa. As you can see  a transition to a moderate la-nina is likely in the coming months. Some analog years for a winter match up well with a transition from el-nino to la-nina, 95-96, 98-99, 88-89 and 07-08. 95-96 was  cold with lots of snow compared to normal while 98-99 had little snow and was very mild. A common occurrence is for a cold December in la-nina years a look at the cfs climate model above does show that potential.

The forecast for this weekend is below in the comments section or can be found @ http://people.wku.edu/leeperd/

1. Wednesday we had a frontal boundary move further south than expected with the last forecast update into the region at the same time a band of thunderstorms developed just south of the boundary which moved very slowly and west to east across the region resulting in flooding in particular for areas just north of Bowling Green. Today and Saturday a ridge of high pressure will break up and send the boundary northward leading to hot and muggy weather ( 90′s for highs and low 70′s for lows and heat index values of 100-105). Make sure to keep in this mind if outdoors as a heat advisory is in effect.

2. Tropical depression Bonnie is located just south of Tampa,Florida tonight and is expected to move northwest into the gulf making landfall early next week near New Orleans. This system looks very week now with the likelihood of becoming a storm again not that great sue to an unfavorable position of the upper level low and increased shear near it’s path. The moisture from Bonnie should move north into our region by Tuesday. At the same time another front will push south through the ridge enough to make it into the lower Ohio valley before stalling and weakening over our region. The combination of these two systems will lead to likelihood of afternoon and evening showers and storms with a heavy rain threat. Right now this front& tropical leftovers should be over the region with thunderstorm chances from the front on Sunday entering the region and the tropical moisture addition for Monday through Wednesday. Highs should be in the low 90′s Sunday and in the mid to upper 80′s Mon-Wed thanks to clouds and storms with lows from 66-72. Continue reading →

After a sunny and hot Wednesday with highs near 90 ridging will continue to build northeast into the region putting a cap on any cloud/ storm development. We will still have moisture moving north into the region with dewpoints rising to around 70 or the low 70′s on Thursday. Modeling currently projects highs from 94-99 on Thursday with the added moisture heat index values will likely range from 103-108  in the afternoon and evening. This level of heat is very dangerous and extreme caution should be taken, if outdoors wear light clothes and drink plenty of water. The next front will approach for Friday and Saturday with a chance for storms and cooler temps. These figures have been slightly adjusted downward after examining recent model trends with dewpoints and temperature forecasts. These heat index values are slightly higher than the nws based on the thinking dewpoints will stay in the low 70′s on Thursday similar to today for our region.

1. A cold front is approaching the region today with this front moving in and being along the edge of a summertime ridge bringing north a warm front clusters of thunderstorms will likely develop late tonight and last through Tuesday. Unlike past events this month more instability will be in place similar to June as the pattern once again favors the development of mcs thunderstorm complexes near the fronts  in addition to scattered heating of the day storms. Also with multiple fronts in the region shear and helcity values will be slightly higher increasing the threat for an isolated tornado or two in the region. However the usual suspects with mcs’s gusty winds, small hail and hvy rains are most likely in terms of severe weather. The timing of thunderstorms is still uncertain however we’ll have to watch for a mcs to form tonight to our west and move into the region overnight and Monday morning with another mcs threat Tuesday morning.  Highs should be in the mid to upper 80′s Monday and Tuesday with lows in the 60′s.

Continue reading →

Highlights:
- heat wave ending today
- Thunderstorms Friday
- warm and dry weekend

Forecast: A large ridge of high pressure which has been over the region for several days will be in place today with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 90′s. For Friday a cold front will approach from the west bringing a high likelihood for a period or two of thunderstorms as a result temperatures will be cooler with lows in the mid to upper 60′s and highs in the mid to upper 80′s. Expect similar temperatures for the weekend with fair skies behind the front.

A strong ridge has built across the region over the past few days the ridge will be hard pressed to move out-of-the-way this week. The end result will be thunderstorms over the plains and upper midwest around the ridge and a core of hazy, hot and humid, thunderstorm free regions from the Ohio valley into the northeast. This means that with high pressure in control skies should be mostly sunny each day through Thursday with increasing humidity from a moist flow off the gulf and highs in the low to mid 90′s with overnight lows only falling into the upper 60′s and low 70′s. Once again heat index values may make a run at 100 a few times this week. A frontal system with some of the deeper tropical moisture should bring a good chance of storms by Saturday. I’ll have a tropical update in a day or two.

The average tempearture in June in Bowling Green was 79.9*F which is 5.5*F above normal making it the 6th warmest June ever for the city of Bowling Green.