This meteorological summer Jun-Aug is the 3rd warmest on record. This summer will be noted for extremes in the number of hot days and the times it got above 100 in August.
This week portions of Western Kentucky are moving into moderate drought. The rainfall events we have had sinceMay have been have been less frequent than normal but the number of extremely heavy events is above normal in the Bowling Green region but not just to our west. Areas of the bluegrass region also have to be monitored for abnormally dry conditions as Lexington has had only .58 inches of rain for the month. Rainfall Sunday and Monday though scattered may help a bit, otherwise the deficit will increase by .15 each day. Without the May flood event the entire region would likely be in a moderate to severe drought today. Continue reading
1. We have an area of low pressure near the Louisiana coast which will move northward over the next few days. With this some deeper tropical moisture will move around the edge of the ridge establishing it’s self in the upper lakes. As a result this tropical moisture appears deeper than earlier thought leading to addition of shower and storm chances for Sunday afternoon through Monday. Coverage should be around 50% in our region on the far western edge of the ridge’s influence.
2. Hurricane Danielle is turning way out to sea getting caught in a atlantic trough, let’s say bye now. NHC maps. Continue reading
Over the next few days a very strong ridge will build over the eastern great lakes. For us here in the Bowling Green region this means several things Continue reading
1. Overall we have very good agreement between the gfs and euro models which should make this an easy forecast.
2. Monday and Tuesday will be sunny and still hot with little wind and highs near 90 as weak high pressure will be in the region. Of note throughout the week will be a stalled front along the east coast which may be a focus for tropical development.
3. Wednesday a front moves through the region, this front will have a Canadian airmass behind it but little precipitation ahead of it, right now only putting in a slight shower chance Wednesday as the models really don’t have any precip for our region. Highs should be in the low 90′s Wednesday with southerly flow/ winds.
4. Behind it we have a pattern change to northerly advection which means lower dewpoints with a drier/ cooler airmass. Highs should be in the mid 80′s with lows in the lower to mid 60′s both Thursday and Friday. The gfs has lows in the 50′s but prefer to stay warmer for now.
5. Tropical storm Danielle has formed in the Atlantic Nhc image below. Still going to wait a few days before giving my thoughts as is it well out there now. Continue reading
A complex of showers and a few thunderstorms is moving east and southeast into the region well in advance of the front. As a result rain and storms are moving in a little sooner than expected today. Right now periods of showers and storms will occur into the early afternoon hours. The most intense storm with hvy rain, lightning and gusty winds to 40 mph will move through Bowling Green between 9 and 10 am.
- still warm but drier
- scattered storms by the weekend
The front and disturbance which brought heavy rain to region Wednesday will be south of the region with only morning clouds and patchy fog today with highs in the upper 80′s. Friday will see a return to southerly flow keeping the humidity in place and sending highs back into the low 90′s with mostly sunny skies. Another front approaches the region bringing with it the threat for scattered storms from Saturday afternoon through Sunday with highs again near or just under 90. With the added summertime humidity lows are expected to be in the low 70′s.
lead forecaster: MWG
3.23 inches of rain fell today which broke the old mark of 1.72 inches in 1931.
we have had several rounds of storms today with hvy rains from a disturbance and moisture from td 5. The rainfall over 2 inches, some mesonet sites over 5 inches of rain has resulted in an increased flood threat today. Addtional storms may increase the flood threat again later this afternoon. Several reports of flooding have already come into broadcast media and the nws across the county. Turn around don’t drown.
1. The summer theme hot with severe storms has continued over the last week while I was away. So far this August has lived up to the summer outlook as being very hot.
2. Today we have a cool frontal passage through the region but the instability and energy for the atmosphere to work with is not as great as yesterday so even with the formation of scattered storms along the front I’m not expecting any widespread severe storms. However with increased low level lapse rates a few storms may be able to generate gusty winds. Highs should be able to get into 90′s once again.
3. Monday and Tuesday the front moves just to the south of the region taking down our storm chances to just isolated highs will still be in the low 90′s with the main surge of cooler air to our northeast. lows will range from the mid 60′s to low 70′s. Heat index values below 100 vs the 105-110 we’ve had this past week.
4. Wednesday a disturbance should travel along the old frontal boundary from the plains into the northeast. Both the gfs and euro models bring several rounds of thunderstorms Wednesday, increasing the storm chances to likely in this forecast. This also means we have a chance not to hit 90 on Wednesday as well. Continue reading