Highlights:
-Major rainmaker on tap for Thursday
-Cooler temperatures on Friday
-Active pattern setting up for next week

Forecast:
Warm front will move north past Bowling Green early Thursday Morning, bringing warmer temperatures and raising dew points. Moisture will be streaming northward in front of a center of low pressure that will deeping in Oklahoma. By noon this front will stall somewhere near the Ohio River and a sheild of precipitation will spread in coverage across Kentucky. By later in the evening, the low will ride up along this boundary and bring another round of heavy precip. Most of Kenucky is set to recieve widespread rainfall amounts of 2″+. The axis of heavier precipitation will reside along the Ohio river, where the greatest forcing exists along the stalled warm front. A potential exists in southern Kentucky for thunderstorms (with a small possiblility of severe) with heavy rain and strong winds being the main threat. Instability (energy) will be minimum at best, so as of now only thinking there will be a few rumbles of thunder and heavy rainfall. A cold front will andvance eastward, with this center of low pressure, and precipitation should come to an end Fri. morning. Temperatures on Fri will remain cool with highs only reaching the upper 40′s and lows Fri. night in the mid 30′s. Saturday looks to be dry and seasonalby warm with highs in the middle 50′s and lows in the 40′s. With a chance of rain returning on Sunday.

Highlights:
-Warm air and southwesterly flow bringing in higher temperatures
-Chance of showers increasing through the day on Monday.
-Cooler temperatures on Tues.

Discussion:
After warm frontal passage on Sunday, southwesterly flow will continue into Monday bringing with it some Gulf of Mexico moisture and a good chance of showers. A low pressure system will move across Indiana Monday night, dragging behind it a cold front which will drop temperatures Monday night into the low 30s.This front should be a focusing mechanism for precipitation, so expect better coverage towards the evening on Monday. Some of the rain showers could be mixed with flurries as cold air filters in Tues. morning, but no impact is expected from this as ground temperatures are too warm. Tues. temperatures will be much cooler with partly cloudy skies, and high temperatures in the upper 40′s.Temperatures increase on Wed. as southerly flow returns in the form of a warm front. This ahead of a late week low pressure system that will affect our area on Thurs. High temperatures on Wed. should top out in the upper 50′s.

Last week proved to be a very cold and snowy one in the Bowling Green area, with near-record lows and two separate accumulating snowfall events. First, on Monday, morning rain quickly changed to wet snow as a surface low passed just southeast of the area. This event produced 2.1 inches of snow in Bowling Green, with much higher totals in southwestern Kentucky where localized heavy bands of snow set up. 6 inches of snow fell at the National Weather Service office in Paducah, while Draffenville, KY hit the jackpot with 10 inches. On Wednesday, the Bowling Green area found itself on the northern periphery of a large area of snowfall over the south central U.S. This system dropped an additional 3.8 inches of snow in Bowling Green.

In the wake of this system, the deep snowpack combined with an arctic airmass characterized by calm winds and clear skies to drive low temperatures down well below zero in Bowling Green. The official low at the Bowling Green airport on Thursday morning was -3, while the Kentucky Mesonet station at the WKU farm just south of Bowling Green recorded a low of -7. Friday morning was even colder, with a low of -10 reported by the Mesonet station. A map of Friday morning lows from the Kentucky Mesonet shows that the coldest temperatures were over southern and southwestern Kentucky, where the most snow cover was in place. Lows were much “warmer” over eastern and northern Kentucky, where little snow fell from either system.

In the wake of the snow and cold, ridging aloft and southerly surface winds brought about a dramatic warmup for much of the eastern U.S., with highs reaching the lower 60s in Bowling Green yesterday. A cold front brought a temporary cooldown into the lower 50s today, but temperatures should be on the increase through at least Thursday before better rain chances return to the forecast on Friday.

Sorry for the delay with getting an updated forecast out. I’ve known  since this morning this is going to far west for snow. In my last post i discussed the westward model trend well the upper low is slightly stronger meaning a slightly more westward track and the main 1-3 snow band now goes through west ky. we are seeing warmer air ahead of the low and light rain which should change to some light snow showers for Saturday.

I’ll update tomorrow on a system Monday which would normally generate hype but is the middle child in this series of storms. I’m watching for low pressure to develop fairly quickly over TN Monday and ride northeast developing a period of precipitation with cold air rushing in behind the question is mainly a snow event then we make up for tonight’s 1-3 if a mix then more coatings.

The big deal next week will be Wednesday and Thursday I’m expecting temperatures in the 20′s this coupled with a gulf storm as well throwing moisture north ahead of a strong low pressure system right now I’m leaning more in the direction of Saturday’s 00z CMC, Friday’s 12Z ECMWF and Friday’s 18Z DGEX all of which bring a heavy snowfall to the region. This snowfall has the potential to be quite excessive due to the fact of high snow ratios so only .5 qpf gives us 10 inches. However the GFS model is further south but this is standard operating procedure with this model as we have seen with this last system trends say it goes further north and west with time on the track. Even with a northwest shift on those other models we’re still good for snow mid-week.

I’ll start going over these systems more tomorrow and then hands things off to Lee who will have a busy week next week.

First to recap this historic storm which produced tremendous amounts of ice and snow to our northwest along with very gusty winds for most of the country.

for regional recaps follow these links.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/?n=02_01_2011

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=tsa&storyid=63371&source=0

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=event_2011feb01_summary

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=63391&source=0

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=LSR

and for wind gusts in our region

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=63501&source=0

what a storm wish the blizzard would have hit here personally but no ice which is good!

Looking in the long range I see several signs that the unexpected cold and frequent snow of the winter will turn into more of a typical la-nina pattern around here meaning warm for the mid-south with cold over the northwest and more frequent rains  but that is still 2 weeks away.

Earlier this week I suggested while quite a few of the models were dry for Friday night and Saturday that would see periods of snow as a low tracking up the east coast would correct west with time on the models. This appears the case as an upper low will track from Texas into eastern Kentucky with one region of snow northwest of the track while the main surface low is along the east coast. Overall I expect .1-.3 qpf to fall a nice blend of the wet NAM the drier GFS and the SREF from Friday into Saturday. Light snow should develop late Friday afternoon with steady snow Friday night into Saturday. It may start out as rain for a hour or two Friday but quickly change to snow withaccumulations from 1-3 inches any track and strength change with the upper low could result in adjusting of snow totals.

NAM 500 mb map

- friday afternoon the energy is over Texas

By Saturday morning it moves into our region developing the period of snow for late Friday into Saturday.

temperatures will be in the mid to upper 10′s Thursday morning with Highs Thursday in the mid 30′s with fair skies. Lows Friday should be in the mid 20′s with increasing clouds during the day and highs from the mid to upper 30′s. Lows will be around 30 which could lead to some slick spots given the accumulation of snow expected, winter weather advisories may be issued for the region as a result.

This weekend we should warm-up some. This leads into next week one piece of energy should work through Sunday and Monday with a light rain to light snow deal with arctic air coming in behind. At the same time another piece of  energy is left behind in the southern Rockies and as a southeast ridge tries to build it could lead to a classic snowstorm track for the mid south from Texas through the southeast and up the east coast for Late Tuesday through Wednesday of next week if enough energy is left behind in the southern Rockies. Also cold air in the 10′s and 20′s would be pouring in to increase snow ratios more than a typical gulf storm or arctic wave. This should be watched closely as several of the GFS bufkit runs that were trying to form a storm in this timeframe had anywhere from 4 to 9 inches of snowfall at Bowling Green. Another possibility is for the first piece of energy to be stronger and cut into the lakes bringing rain showers to flurries then for the second piece to be very week and actually bring snow  to the gulf coast and track well to our south. right now modeling is split on this DGEX,NOGAPS,JMA and CMC all favor the bigger snowstorm while the UKMET and GFS favor the first piece of energy being stronger with the ECMWF trying to make two storms next week. For now my thinking is that the atmosphere should be to worked over for a storm Sunday into Monday just after two storms in the last week thus the majority of the energy should bundle in the southern Rockies and take that favored snowstorm track by the middle of next week that could be the first 6 snow in recent Bowling green history. But again could be wishful thinking in the long run. speaking of wishful thinking in the other direction A tanking (-) PNA an AO going positive and the long range charts of the ECMWF and GFS show a pattern flip to a typical la-nina pattern which is much warmer than this winter so far around the 15th.

I’ll update again on Friday. My forecast now is 1-3 inches of snow Friday night.

MWG