Right now my thinking matches up well with the 12z ECMWF and JMA from Saturday for later in the week and the Sunday 00z GFS for Monday.
Today should be a mostly cloudy day with highs in the 40′s ahead of the next frontal system. This front moves east on Monday bringing in another surge of cold air and temperatures from 32-36 from A Lexington to Bowling Green line northwest and upper 30′s to mid 40′s further east. At the same time another wave of low pressure will track from the deep south up the west slopes of the apps. Snow will break out from a BWG to LEX line northwest around noontime Monday with rain for the rest fo the region during the day this rain will change to snow by evening and precipitation will end by Tuesday morning with lows in the mid 20′s. I expect snow accumulation to mainly be on grassy surfaces Monday afternoon and evening but black ice may be an issue by Tuesday. the ECMWF is most robust with QPF around 1/2 inch , the NAM only has from .1-.2 with the GFS in the middle. For now I’ll go with the GFS on qpf with the modeling in good agreement on the low track. This suggests region that see mainly snow could get a few inches. Worth noting is thermal profiles are quite a bit colder with both thickness and 850 temps which may also allow for some dynamical cooling to kick in.
GFS qpf for this event
i’d figured on giving the GFS a little credit before ripping it and giving it a faling grade on the next storm.
On all the models I’m notcing diffuclites in where the low will form. The GFS Wednesday morning forms it over el-paso TX
let’s take a look at the 500 mb pattern for the overall flow. this low should move east.
but wait suddenly the low is north of Tampico mexico well south of Brownsville. this presents a disjoint between the low and the region with the best isentropic lift ( advection of pressure and moisture resulting in precipitation development)
thus the gfs is extremely disorganized with everything. the new 00z CMC is having similar problems with the addition of convective feedback. the UKMET also has this odd southern route.
still both of these models have snow although not much. The ECMWF and JMA 12z Saturday make the most sense a low that tracks east from el-paso to Georgia then off the east coast.
I’ll show the JMA due to copyright issues
I may have to give into the modeling and say we’re far south but I’m not buying it yet.
For now i stick with track 2
as you can tell I’m starting to worry a bit for the south and really getting worried for regions north of 1-64 that this will be a miss with TN and the deep south getting all the fun.
EITHER WAY THE LAST DAY OF WINTER IS FRIDAY AND THE FIRST DAY OF SPRING SATURDAY. it’s now or next winter.
Lee will keep the blog updated for the next week so check back to see how much snow we could get.