The mild winter influenced by La Niña and very positive NAO and AO continues as a ridge of high pressure is in place over the East Coast providing solid warm air advection into the Mid South this morning.

The day will start off cold, but the southerly flow will bring in more warm and moist air and allow temperatures to reach into the upper 50s, and set the stage for a rain event come mid week as a trough will pass through the area by Thursday. Temperatures will rebound quickly and a second system will send a wave of energy through the mid south bringing bigger chances of rain for Sunday.

For the midweek event, the GFS is not as aggressive as the NAM is with the cold air. Based on the abnormally warm nature of the pattern in place, a solution closer to the GFS is a good bet. As for the Sunday precipitation, the GFS is suggesting a very warm set-up—much too warm for any wintry precipitation. There could even be the chance for severe weather on Sunday, but that is a very remote possibility as of now. The SPC does not have anything plotted for Sunday in regards to convective activity.

lowering highs to 40-45 today
1. slower clearning expected
2. stronger CAA

The spring term has started at WKU. This means this site will continue to feature frequent weather updates with many authors about the upcoming weather patterns!

1. This weekend We will continue to see a zonal flow with a few week troughs moving through.

2. Friday our rainmaker departs with slowly clearing skies. I’m not expecting fog as winds should be from 5-10 MPH. After morning lows in the mid to upper 30′s highs should be around 50.

3. Saturday the first trough moves through with a very week cold front. Ahead of the front some WAA should keep lows in the mid to upper 30′s. Only expect a slow rise into the low and mid 40′s with CAA behind the front. This front should provide enough lift for clouds along with a very small chance of light rain or flurries. Winds should increase some with the front as well.

4. A week shortwave passes to our northwest Sunday Ahead of it  my thinking is enough sunshine and WAA should allow for highs in the upper 40′s more in line with the ECMWF after lows near 30. Another period of clouds late Sunday is likely as well, will keep Sunday dry though as moisture is even more limited than on Saturday.

5. Long range euro is the same as last week very warm and wet for Feb.

This is a long forecast given i will be in New Orleans from Saturday through Wednesday for the AMS conference. This means I will not be able to update any severe warnings Sunday Night/Monday. I may ask someone else to cover as well.

Here is a link to the AMS conference http://annual.ametsoc.org/2012/

Locally there will be a weather conference in February @ the Holiday Inn in Bowling Green. I hope to meet some of you there. A great chance to learn all about weather and meet meteorologists in the region!

http://kyem.ky.gov/Pages/default.aspx

Let’s get to the weather

1. A major bust by almost all meteorologists out there, even had to slap myself silly after missing this one. It only takes a small amount of instability with lots of shear to make a situation very threatening. Should have been watching the soundings closer. No watches were issued by the SPC this has happened many times in recent months including my time at NWS-PHL. Severe reports keep coming in and no watch is issued. UMM…..

2. Friday will see a boundary over our region which will lead to dramatically different temps across the state. Lows will be near 30 south. Highs Friday in the south may make the low 50′s with Southwest winds  increasing from 10-20 MPH. A low pressure system will track across the region Friday night bringing moisture with it interacting with the boundary and producing light rain known as isentropic lift. Friday night temperatures should rise into the low and mid 50′s. Some elevated thunder is possible as well but any instability should stay south of the region.

3. Temperatures Saturday should be in the 40′s as we clear out.

4. Sunday another surge of Warm air advection WAA  will bring much warmer weather and south to southwest winds at 20-30 mph. lows will start out in the 30′s maybe low 40′s  with highs in the 60′s. Sunday night a strong cold front should move through with rising temps once again at night. The overall trough will be negative tilted, a strong LLJ will also be present. A impressive vort max should be moving just to the west of the region as well.

A look at the 300 mb jet notice a nice piece of jet energy moving in

A look at the soundings shows the LLJ to be impressive from 60-80 KTS, helicity values should be the roof again a key indicator of updrafts needed for storm rotation. Sufficient instabilty appears to be present at this time for another severe weather event either Sunday night or Monday morning.

A squall line of thunderstorms should bring widespread severe weather sometime Sunday night or Monday morning with the frontal passage. High public impact. I strongly disagree with the SPC that this is a non event. That type of talk last time lead to a very bad forecast day there Tuesday. Apologies for not being able to post warnings in advance due to my absence.

5. Monday should clear out a bit lows will be in the 30′s with highs in the  40′s.  Tuesday and Wednesday I’m keeping dry with highs in the 40′s maybe low 50′s and lows in the 30′s to maybe around 40.

Last week the long range euro showed promise of colder times for the first half of Feb, this week’s run has been replaced by record warmth and lots of it.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=jan17_2012

Storm recap Above thanks to NWS LMK!  Great job getting the damage surveys done!

I will update on thursday real quick now. Then tommorow I’ll post my forecast from Friday through Thursday of next week.

A cold front will move west to east across the region with a chance for light rain showers. Lows will be in the mid to upper 20′s with highs in the upper 40′s.

Long term models are backing off the extreme warmth some and teleconnections are showing a more favorable pattern for snow and cold once Feb arrives.

A storng storm will move through Warren county in the next hour with gusty winds up to 60 mph.

. SPC mesoanalysis shows an advection of moisture dewpoints close to 60*F, Mixed layer CAPE values of 500 J/KG, Helciity values of over 500 m/s ^2 advecting into Western kentucky.

- A squall line of strong storms has moved into the Ohio River valley as well with severe storms just West of Louisville, won’t talke much mixing to get strong winds down to the surface.

- Threat for damaging winds across this entire region with a tornado threat further south and west today.

We’re on the snow board now with 1.4 inches for the season. The talk of a snowless winter actually ended Jan 2 where .2 inches of snow fell officially where many just saw flurries.

Hope you enjoyed the snow b/c we’re going back to the same old pattern I’ve hated all winter.

This – PNA forces a southeast ridge and dumps any cold into the west, it’s back where it was in NOV. And is the reason why any systems the next few weeks cut well to our west and most days are very mild through the end of Jan once this airmass in place leaves. Any cold shots are brief.

1. Monday will see a return to southwesterly flow which will cause some week isentopic lift to take place leading to increase in clouds, a light rain shower can’t be ruled out the best chance Monday should be from Little Rock to Indy where the isentopic lift is more pronounced. Lows should be in the  mid 30′s and Highs should climb into the  low 50′s. Winds will pick up from 10-20 mph.

2. A low pressure tracks in the lakes Tuesday bringing with it a strong cold front. Ahead of the front SW flow will lead to steady or rising temperatures Monday night. Will lean to the ECMWF with this since it handled the new years front well. Temperatures should rise into the low 50′s south and upper 40′s north Monday night. Southwest winds of 15-25 mph. Periods of rain showers will accompany the front, the SREF has .25-.5 of rain across the region I could see a few amounts near or just over an inch along I-71 which is well north of us. I’m going with  the slower frontal passage on all models not named the GFS. This should allow for a temperature spike from 60-65 on Tuesday for highs.

3. temperatures crash fast Tuesday night into the 20′s with highs getting close to 40 Wednesday. Skies will clear as the wind direction temporarily turns back to the northwest. Thursday may be interesting with a chance of light rain or snow. After that we should really warm-up, good thing my trip to New Orleans for the American Meteorological society is next weekend and I won’t miss any winter. Another blog author will be updating that week.

4. I continue to think around the 7th of FEB the pattern should change as we get another 10 mb warming event over the poles and the latest euro weekly forecast turns cooler around this time as well.  The end of this month should be a transition from the peak of warmth around the 23rd several storms will cut into the lakes, maybe some severe weather as well.

After taking a look at the new SREF in addition of the 12 models I think the best chance of snow around an inch does stay north of us.

- The best region of Omega lift and frontgenical forcing appear to be along I-64 this afternoon. slightly further north than what appeared on Friday’s models. This line of thinking matches the 12z US models which provide light snow from Lexington to Ashland later today.

Modeling has gone south with a very week clipper system expected to track across western KY and through the Nashville the region late Saturday afternoon and evening. Good clipper track for snow, but it’s a very week clipper. Due to the increase in clouds I’m lowering highs to the mid 30′s given lows may run slightly cooler than forecasted with the snow on the ground.

- Right now the clipper shows up over northeast Nebraska as a period of light snow. This should continue moving southeast toward our region arriving late Saturday afternoon. Since this is a very week system it may fall apart and not give any snow.

- One favorable point for snow is it should encounter a region where lift is a little better Saturday afternoon, this could be west of us in which case light snow would be likely, the NAM. Or it could be on top on east of us only giving southeast KY a period of light snow, elevation will help them as well.

- In my view this is a 50% of a period of light snow with a coating to an inch of snow. Snow if it does occur could once again makes things slick.

The SPC WRF is really bullish on this snow while the RUC has no QPF. May be morning before we know what to expect.