We have another threat Friday for severe weather I’ll update on this later today.
the severe weather is clearing out. However the heavy rain from today has led to a chance for some flooding this afternoon.
This storm is heading toward the city of Bowling Green and a tornado warning remains in effect.
This one inclues the city of BG. untill 12:15
Some week rotation is present on doppler radar northeast of BG seek shelter now!
A thunderstorm will track over Warren county with winds up to 60 mph, small hail and heavy rain. a flood advisory is also in effect.
A squall line has been very slow to move southeast. Gusty winds approraching severe limits and small hail are possible. Helicity values are still very high and rotation may quickly form in any storm as well.
Thanks tor the storng overnight LLJ a squall line deelvoped to our west and has moved into areas to our north and west. A tornado has already touched in Madisonville,KY this morning. A extreme amount of shear exisits ahead of the squall line (helicity values over 700 m/s^2). This promotes the chance that any storm may turn tornadic. Strong gusty winds are the other main threat. Should a stronger storm track over Warren county some hail may occur. This squall line will redelevop and strengthen to our southeast as the last update indicated. Southeast KY and northern TN will have a very nasty day and the SPC has upgraded these regions to a moderate risk.
A warm front is still expected to move through overnight. A strong Low level jet (LLJ) will transport moisture into the boundary and provide the lift needed for a period of showers and storms in addition to keeping temperatures rather steady around 60 overnight. Southerly winds will increase as well. Along this warm front, shear will be more than sufficient for severe weather. The majority of this activity I expect to be elevated with means just heavy rain and thunder. However due to the large amount of shear any isolated storm which does become surface based overnight may produce a tornado.
The question is can enough instability materialize for some severe storms Wednesday afternoon with the cold front?
Wednesday afternoon the cold front moves through and will likely develop another round of showers and storms. With daytime heating and a continued transport of warm unstable air into the region I do think at least marginal instability should be present across the region. By early afternoon though the front could very well be closing in on our region. The best lift for storm development is just ahead of the front making the most likely regions for round 2 Wednesday afternoon further southeast. Storms will have a damaging wind/ isolated tornado threat through the afternoon and early evening. Regions ahead of the front should see a temp spike into the 70′s as well. I’ll update any warnings overnight tonight as needed. tomorrow morning we’ll use the RUC and HRRR to actually see where the front will be in the afternoon and pinpoint the exact regions that will see storms. At this point it is to early to call if the front will be through BG before thunderstorms form.
Modeled rainfall on the GFS is overdone due to convective feedback in my view. The NAM, EC and SREF are much less than the 12z OP GFS. Overall rainfall should be from 1/2 to 1 inch perhaps some slightly higher totals in storms.
Friday threat looks more favorable for timing across the region. I’m suspecting another squall line event in fact instability may be a touch more than this Wednesday event. I also feel either Sunday or Monday we’ll be stuck with 40′s for highs and a rain/snow mix. I’m seeing other forecasts back off of 60 and sunny for this time frame.
1. After starting out around 40 Monday temperatures should rebound into the low and mid 60′s for highs. Will trend above guidance with temps. A mix of sun and clouds should also be present with a southwest wind of 5-10 mph.
2. Tuesday the southerly winds should increase perhaps on the order of 10-20 mph. Cloud cover will also increase ahead of a warm frontal boundary. An advection of some instability and moisture should occur but mainly Wednesday. The threat for severe weather Tuesday night looks very similar to last Thursday, marginal. Showers will be likely with a few thunderstorms. Storms may have gusty winds. Any increase in the modeled instability may bring a severe threat into the mix, however this appears unlikely at this time for Tuesday night. Timing is not favorable for severe weather being after midnight Tuesday night for the highest rain chances. The system passing well north of the region on Monday should be culprit in the limited northward advection of moisture and in fact may send in some low level cold air keeping lows in the 30′s Tuesday. Highs should reach the 60′s.
3. A strong LLJ will keep temperatures in the 50′s Tuesday night. The cold frontal boundary will be slow to cross the region. I suspect a temperature spike occurs ahead of the boundary with continued strong southerly winds. Highs will top 70 perhaps reaching the mid 70′s. Along the cold front I suspect enough shear and instability will be present for another round of showers and storms this time with a severe threat. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes would be the main threats However the front may pass east of east of our region before peak heating hours. Any changes in timing could alter the high temp and instability advection into the region Wednesday.
4. Don’t expect much of a cooldown behind the front. A mostly sunny day should occur with lows in the 40′s and highs in the 60′s. The next severe threat with another front moves into the region Fri/Sat.