Friday has continued throughout the week to becoming more promising for a chance at severe weather for Bowling Green. The Storm Prediction Center has placed Bowling Green in a slight risk for storms for Friday.
A surface boundary left over from a decaying MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) will be the focus for the first round of severe weather expected to move through Bowling Green in the early afternoon Friday. A line of storms is expected to move through the Bowling Green area between 1-2pm CST. The main threat with this first round of weather will be damaging winds and hail.
A second wave of severe weather is expected to move through in the later afternoon/night Friday. This wave will be associated with a larger potent low pressure system that has been evolving over the past few days to the west. A shortwave trough is expected to deepen and dig in from the east pushing along a strong cold front out ahead of it.
This system will have upper level support in the way of a potent trough axis with upper levels blasting around it in the 110 kts at 250 mb to 90 kts range around the 500 mb level. The 500 mb jet streak with peak winds around 90 kts will help provide support to a low level jet providing extra lift. A potent cold front will also provide added lift to this system as it sweeps through Friday evening/Saturday morning. In the low levels, moisture will be readily available with dew points across Kentucky in the 60’s and 70’s. Bulk wind shear values spanning from 40 kts-60 kts will provide organization to any storms that develop. The main threat with this event will be damaging winds and large hail. Bowling line segments could develop within a greater squall line in the event that the line is influence by a strong rear inflow jet.
After the passage of this system Saturday, a dry out is expected as the cold front moves out to the east. Due to the intense nature of this front, a major cool off is expected with almost fall like temperatures in the low to mid-70’s for highs and 50’s for lows on Saturday and Sunday.
Friday: Severe storms expected in rounds beginning in the early afternoon and concluding Saturday morning. High , 90. Low, 75.
Saturday: Major cool down after passage of cold front. Showers and storms continuing into the morning. High, 73. Low, 52.
Next Update: 9/8/12