We’re back! For those that noticed the lack of forecasts this past week it was because 11 WKU meteorology students (including your forecaster) traveled to Austin, TX for the 2013 American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting. I’ll post a recap of the trip later but for now back to the weather.
When I last posted, we we’re talking about a warm up in the days to come and warm up it did. Bowling Green reached 70 degrees on Friday which broke the old record of 68 set in 1916! Meanwhile temperatures have hovered in the upper 60s to near 70 again today. Besides the warmer weather, rain has been the other story. We have seen a little over an inch of rain this past week in the county and more heavy rain is on the way. This will bring up the threat for flash flooding and minor river flooding. The NWS has issued a Flood Watch for Warren Co and most of south-central Kentucky through tomorrow evening as up to 3+ inches of rain is possible. Currently there is a low pressure in NE Texas with a warm front extending from the low through Arkansas and into Indiana. The aforementioned low pressure will ride along the front and will pass to our north but a cold front extending south from the low will pass through Sunday. This system will be the focal point for the heavy rain through Sunday night. Very heavy rain will be possible especially around midday tomorrow as moist air will be streaming in from the Gulf. A very strong low-level jet between 50 and 60 knots will be responsible for bringing in such moist air.
NAM forecast precipitable water values Sunday morning are in excess of 1.5 inches over most of central Kentucky.
Precipitable water values will be over an inch and a half for several hours during the middle of the day tomorrow. With the intense rainfall flash flooding will be a very real possibility especially because of the amount of moisture already in the ground due to our recent rains. In total between 1.5-3 inches of rain will be possible across much of south-central Kentucky. It can’t be ruled out that some locations could see more than 3 inches. The official forecast from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is for between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain.
The HPC rainfall forecast indicates 1.5-2.5 inches of rain over south-central KY.
Behind the front which will pass through Sunday MUCH colder air will move into the state. The cold air mass that is currently over much of the Midwest (which provided the cold air for the Broncos vs. Ravens game in Denver) will be moving in (though it won’t be as cold as it is at the game). Temperatures will begin falling by early afternoon and temps will be in the 40s by 6 pm. Temperatures may be cold enough tomorrow night before the precipitation ends to allow the rain mix with or transition to sleet or even freezing drizzle. Overall any wintry precipitation should be light and shouldn’t create any impacts. Colder air will be in place for much of the early part of the week with temperatures generally in the 40s for highs. The front which will pass through here Sunday will stall across the southeastern US and a couple of disturbances along with this front will create at least the chance of precipitation both Monday night and Tuesday. Models disagree on how much if any precipitation will fall in south-central Kentucky and thus this system bears watching. Furthermore with the colder air in place especially at night some of the precipitation could be of the wintry type. Check back in for the early week update on this system. Furthermore another system next Friday could also bring a chance of some wintry weather or it could just be all rain but time will tell.
Daily Forecasts:
Tonight: FLOOD WATCH Cloudy skies and warm with temperatures steady in the upper 60s; low near 66. 50% chance of rain after 1 am. Windy with south winds 15-22 mph.
Sunday: FLOOD WATCH Rain, rain will likely be heavy at times and some thunder is possible. High near 65 early but temperatures will drop throughout the day into the 40s by 6 pm. Winds will switch from the SW to the NW throughout the day; winds from 8-15 mph. Rainfall totals between 1.5 and 3 inches.
Sunday Night: 50% chance of rain before 10 pm with a slight chance thereafter. Some sleet or freezing drizzle can’t be ruled out. Temperatures cooling to a low near 28. NNW winds from 5-10 mph.
Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy and cool with high near 38. North winds from 5-10 mph.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy to cloudy with a 40% chance of light rain possibly mixed with sleet. Chilly with a low 29 and a high near 40.
