After a rainy start to the weekend on Saturday morning, weather conditions certainly cleared up for a gorgeous Sunday. The day got off to the chilliest start of the fall season thus far though. The low was 34 at the BGWC Regional Airport while the low dropped to the freezing mark at the Warren County mesonet site just outside of BG. The wall-to-wall sunshine helped to warm us into the low 60s by this afternoon, however that is several degrees below our average high for the date of 70. With such cool temperatures there were some areas of frost along with areas of fog to start Sunday.
Our cool weather is thanks to a cold front which passed through Saturday and also an upper-level trough located over the upper-Midwest which has setup a fairly zonal flow over the Ohio Valley. Associated with this trough is the next weather system poised to impact Kentucky. There is an associated low pressure system which is currently over the Great Lakes and a cold front extends from the system through Illinois and into Texas. Ahead of the system southerly winds and mostly sunny skies will allow for temperatures to rise into the upper 60s. It should be a phenomenal fall Monday but clouds will begin to increase into the afternoon hours, with cloudy skies likely by sunset thanks to the approaching system. The low pressure system itself will pass well to our north but the cold front will slide through the Commonwealth on Monday night. The frontal passage marks the first of several weak fronts to pass through this week which will usher in much cooler air. There is a slight chance of a few showers with the front, though any showers will likely be in the early morning hours Tuesday morning and thus go unnoticed by most. Rainfall will very light totaling no more than a tenth of an inch.
This NAM model forecast indicates light rain along the cold front valid for 4 am on Tuesday. Behind the front cooler air will move in, and after another system moves by on Tuesday night, more cool air will spill in for mid-week.
Clouds will move out temporarily on the day Tuesday though yet another weaker system will approach by Tuesday evening bringing with it more cloudiness. Due to the very dry air which will already be in place, showers are unlikely with this system. However cool air will come crashing in. By Wednesday, mostly sunny skies will dominate but temperatures will struggle to climb. After starting out Wednesday morning near 40 highs will only reach the low 50s. Yet another weak disturbance will move toward the Ohio Valley by Wednesday night/Thursday morning and depending on its exact timing (which the models currently disagree on) will determine just how chilly it is to start Thursday. Either way it will likely be in the 30s. This very weak disturbance will again bring in more cool air in for the end of the week and it looks quite likely that our first real freeze of the season will occur Friday morning as temperatures are expected to drop to near 30. Cool below average temperatures are expected to continue right into next week as you can see predicted by the Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day temperature outlook. They are giving at least a 70% chance of below average temperatures through next Wednesday.
At least a 70% probability of below average temperatures is predicted by the Climate Prediction Center for this weekend into early next week. Thus cool temperatures are here to stay for a while.
Daily Forecasts:
Monday: Mostly sunny to start the day though clouds will increase after 3 pm, becoming cloudy by 7 pm. Highs will warm to near 68. Southwesterly winds at 5-12 mph.
Monday Night: Cloudy skies with a 60% chance of showers primarily after midnight. Showers will remain light with rainfall totals less than 0.10”. Low around 44. Light winds from the northwest.
Tuesday: Clouds will clear early becoming mostly sunny during midday. High near 61. Clouds will again increase by the evening. 5-12 mph winds turning back from the southwest.
Tuesday Night: Cloudy skies with a low near 39 with westerly winds at 4-10 mph.
Wednesday: Clouds will clear early for a mostly sunny day but cool with a high only around 52. Northwesterly winds from 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night: Low near 37 with increasing clouds.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy to start the day with skies becoming mostly sunny by the afternoon. High in the low to mid 50s.
