If you have stepped outside today you know just how nice the weather is! The warm weather moved in yesterday and will last throughout the week ahead. Temperatures in the 70’s look like a good bet through Friday. The weekend will bring a slight cool down, but no “polar vortex” as you heard a few times this winter.
With the warmer weather comes a chance for thunderstorms which we will experience for much of the week. There is a chance for an isolated shower tonight, but all rain will likely be out of the area by sunrise. Tuesday will remain mostly sunny, but by Wednesday, thunderstorm chances increase. Thursday and Friday will most likely be accompanied by thunderstorms. Some of the storms could even be severe later in the week.
We may see some pretty heavy rain at times this week, especially if you find yourself under a thunderstorm. A general 2-3 inches by the end of the weekend looks likely for most areas in south central Kentucky. If we do receive several inches of rain, minor flooding would be a possibility. However, with it being rather dry the past couple weeks, major flooding is not likely. Keep in mind, If several thunderstorms happen to pass over the same area, rain totals would be higher which may lead to isolated flooding.
5 day rain prediction from the WPC shows nearly 1.25 inches of rain for Bowling Green
7 Day rain prediction from the WPC shows over 2 inches for Bowling Green
Aside from the potential for heavy rain, storms look likely later in the week. Several waves of showers and storms will roll through the area starting Wednesday night. The round coming through during the Friday/Saturday time frame is worth keeping an eye on as it has the highest severe potential.
A shortwave trough will become more negatively tilted as it heads east. It will encounter relatively large CAPE values across portions of the Midwest, stretching as far east as the western tip of Kentucky.
The day 4 outlook shows the zone of highest probability for storms due to most favorable conditions.
The conditions will become less favorable across south central Kentucky as the low level jet will most likely outrun the rich moisture axis and the CAPE will be lower to the east. However, severe potential still exists and needs to watched. A further analysis of our severe potential will be posted on Wednesday.
As for the remainder of the afternoon and tomorrow, get out and enjoy the weather if you can!
Tonight: Isolated showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. South wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. West wind 6 to 9 mph.
Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the evening.
Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. South wind 7 to 15 mph.
Wednesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 61. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 70. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a low around 60. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday Night: A slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 60.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 40.
Sunday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.