After a fantastic start to the week, rain and storms are set to roll into the area. The remainder of the day will by no means be a washout, but keep an eye on the weather as a few storms may move into our area later today. While there is a slight risk for severe weather in our area this afternoon and evening, the main threat exists tomorrow afternoon and into the overnight hours. The severe threat should exit the region Friday morning.
Today’s severe threat:
Increasing convection this afternoon will pose a risk for several storms to move in later this afternoon into the evening hours. The main threat will remain to the west, but a few isolated storms may sweep across the area. However, confidence is still rather low as to how far east storms will be able to fire due to weak forcing in the area. If storms do fire early enough, strong low level shear, decent CAPE and moisture would support supercells with an isolated tornado risk. Regardless, rain and a few thunderstorms will roll through later this evening and overnight tonight.
Here is the severe outlook for today:
The Storm Prediction Center has Bowling Green right on the edge of the 2% tornado probability and a 5% probability to the west. As you can see, the main threat remains to the west.
The current CAPE and Bulk Shear across the area are sufficient to support storm development.
CAPE is currently approaching 1000 J/kg in Bowling Green
The bulk shear is near 50 knots over Bowling Green.
The HRRR shows storms approaching the area late tonight. This is the simulated reflectivity at 10pm tonight.
If storms are able to fire in our region, they do have the potential to become severe. The main threat with any storm this evening would be damaging winds and an isolated tornado. Again, the threat for severe weather this evening is relatively low, but it still needs to be watched closely.
Thursday into Friday storm chances:
Tomorrow evening’s storm chances look better. Rich moisture and higher CAPE along with the increasing low level jet will provide the ingredients for a line of storms tomorrow evening. To the west across Arkansas, Missouri, and western portions of Tennessee and Kentucky, there is a moderate risk for severe storms. This is the area where the tornado threat is highest. The map below from the SPC shows tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. The red is the moderate risk while the yellow is the slight risk.
The moderate risk remains about 100 miles to the west of Bowling Green. Isolated supercells will develop across the western and central portions of the moderate risk area and later form a squall line that will impact our area. The main threat with the squall line will be damaging winds, hail, and an isolated embedded tornado.
Here are some severe storm parameters for tomorrow:
Both the NAM and GFS show roughly 1500 J/kg CAPE tomorrow around 6pm.
GFS CAPE
NAM CAPE
The NAM’s supercell composite is a composite of several severe storm parameters and shows the areas where supercell development is most favorable. You can see the greatest risk for supercells remains to the west. This is because a squall line will most likely be what impacts our region late Thursday into Friday. There is a slight chance for isolated storms to develop in our region late tomorrow afternoon, with the possiblity of becoming severe.
The Significant Tornado Composite is similar, but shows areas where tornado development is most favorable. The greatest threat is to the west, but an isolated tornado in our area is not out of question.
Here is a look at the simulated reflectivity from the NAM tomorrow around 6pm.
Here is the NAM reflectivity Friday morning. It shows the squall line coming through between 5am and 6am Friday morning.
Overall, a slight chance for severe weather exists in our area beginning tonight and again tomorrow afternoon and going through Friday morning. Storms tomorrow will likely move into the area later in the afternoon with the possibility of some being severe. The main threat will come from the squall line moving into the area late Thursday into early Friday morning. This line of storms will bring heavy rain, strong winds, possibly some large hail, and a chance for an isolated tornado. The squall line will most likely move through the area between 12am and 6am Friday morning.
Keep an eye on the weather as tomorrow progresses and make sure you have your weather radios out and ready to go before you go to bed Thursday night.
Weekly Outlook:
Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. South wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 73. South wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday Night: Periods of showers and thunderstorms. Low around 60. South wind 13 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Friday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 66. Breezy, with a south wind 16 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 40.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 56.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 38.
Sunday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 61.
Sunday Night: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 47. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday: A 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60.
Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40.
Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 60.
