Pleasant Breezes for Fall Season

Good afternoon folks!

Tuesday’s forecast is set to be a beautiful day in Bowling Green, Ky. Today would be perfect to get outside and enjoy the weather, there won’t be any complaints with this one. A sustained high pressure hanging on the southeastern coast for dear life keeping the temperatures warm – highs well into the 80 degree mark. Gusty winds out of the South up to 20 miles per hour suites for a decent push of air throughout your Tuesday. Conditions won’t be too terribly humid today partly because of these winds and some cloud cover. This trend of onslaught moisture is soon to end after Wednesday, then a cold front pushes from the north dwelling into the Mid-South region by Thursday morning.  Surface observation valid for Tues., around 11AM displays the south-easterly flow of winds and the pressure rising for areas along the MS Valley/Mid-South region. Expect to see some low clouds this afternoon but not as much moisture associated with the wind power, so Tuesday stays dry for the most part.

Surface Obs. of Regional U.S showing that distinctive boundary out in the OK panhandle into IA. (courtesy of WPC)

 

Wednesday shapes up to be sort of wonky for your weather forecast. Like I said earlier, a high pressure zone continues to linger bringing some fairer skies to the Mid-South region. However, on oncoming cold front associated with a surface low has been developing and shifts into the Midwest region by Wednesday. This shortwave trough will create slight disturbances along with it’s formation and some lifting of clouds. Meanwhile, an increase in humidity and moisture for Wednesday’s forecast is associated with Hurricane Michael right off the Gulf coast. NAM model guidance is revealing a possibility of popped showers for the afternoon hours. Depending on how fast moving this shortwave of cold air squeezes into the region the less rainfall we’ll tend to receive for Wednesday. Thursday and Friday tend to be parched for moisture feeling a lot like the fall season after the cold front approaches.

1000-500 mb Thickness just prior to the noon hour on Wednesday displays the temperature difference at different height levels. Advection along the MS Valley into the Midwest region. (courtesy of PivotalWeather)

Dew points are relevant to the conditional state of how much moisture is in the atmosphere. For Tuesday dew points will be fairly comfortable with readings of upper 60’s, as the gusty winds give a rather breezy feeling than overwhelming humidity. Wednesday dew points reading low 70’s, which that interval of 5-10 degrees between the two conditions is a very noticeable difference. Both NAM and the GFS are in agreement with saying that dew points will reach up to low 70’s. Expect Wednesday to be hot and humid again with some increasing of clouds. This mechanism is expected to cause rainfall and the possibility of a thunderstorm Wednesday evening.

Dew point temperature readings for 21Z (4PM) showing that southern intake of moisture. (courtesy of PivotalWeather)

FORECAST:

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. A few clouds in the area but we’ll stay dry for today 0% chance for rain. Gusty winds ranging from 10-15 mph out of the S/SE. Temperatures feeling perfect with dew points in the upper 60’s and breezy conditions.

High: 86/ Low: 70

Rain: 0.00″

Tuesday PM: Partly cloudy. A pleasant breeze and an overnight low temperature of about 70 degrees. Less humid air for the evening with dew points in the low to mid 60’s. 10% chance of rain overnight into the early AM hours.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy during the day, although clouds will increase with humidity and moisture on the incline due to Hurricane Michael. Medium chances for showers mostly in the afternoon and evening… 70% due to the moisture factor. A persistent breeze of about 5-10 mph from the South before the cold sector shifts the movement North overnight into Thursday.

High: 84/ Low: 59

Rain: ~0.05″

 

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