Storm System to Impact the Area this Weekend

Good afternoon Folks!!

Forecasters around the area have been keeping their eyes on a potential storm system that could impact the region heading into the weekend. I will dive into the details on that later on in this post!

High pressure over the southeastern part of the United States will continue to drift eastward off the southeast coast during the afternoon and evening hours later on today. This will keep the area mostly dry throughout the day. Winds will ramp up from the SE throughout the day, which will help temperatures rebound back up into the middle 40s. A weaker cold front will drift southeastward across the area during the evening and overnight hours. This will give the Bowling Green area a slight chance of a rain/snow mix during the overnight hours. Temperatures for tonight will dip back down into the lower 30s right around the freezing mark.

High pressure will build in across the region heading into Friday, leaving the area with partly cloudy skies throughout the day. High temperatures on Friday will rise close to the 40° mark. Temperatures during the nighttime hours will fall back into the upper 20s across southern Kentucky.

A relatively strong shortwave trough will continue to develop across the southwest and move into the Texas Panhandle heading into Saturday morning. Rapid cyclogenesis (Cyclogenesis is the development or strengthening of cyclonic circulation in the atmosphere) will strengthen the shortwave into an area of low pressure as it crosses the state of TX.

Below: 500mb Relative Vorticity, 12/06/18 09Z – 12/09/18 18Z

The video above shows the spin or rotation of air at 500mb ( ~18,000 ft above the surface). This area of low pressure will continue to move across the south throughout the weekend and move off the coast early next week. While that happens, a strong mid-level disturbance will track towards the SE across the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley throughout the weekend. The area of low pressure passing off to our south throughout this weekend has the chance of bringing potentially significant winter weather across the area. Overall model guidance is in agreement with each other with the possibility of winter weather across the region.

Overall confidence in a storm system impacting the area throughout this weekend remains high but, the confidence in the evolution, potential impact, and track of the storm system stays relatively low.

Below: Composite Reflectivity, Precipitation Type, 12/07/18 09Z – 12/09/18 18Z

REMEMBER, the animation above is only one model output!!

For further updates on this potential winter storm, tune into WKU Meteorology Blog, White Squirrel WX, or NWS Louisville.

Forecast

Thursday: Partly cloudy skies, high near 44°. Southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph, gusts up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Slight chance of rain/snow showers, low of 31°. Light winds shift from W to N throughout the night.

Friday: Mostly cloudy skies, high temperature right around 40°. Slight breeze from the N.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy skies, low temperature of 28°. Slight breeze from the NE.

Saturday: Slight chance of rain in the afternoon, mixing with snow during the evening hours. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies, high temperature right around 37°. Winds out of the NE at 5-10 mph.

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