WKU Meteorology

It is not often when an 8-12″ snowstorm can be considered a “surprise”, but that was the case Sunday in SE Iowa and parts of NW Illinois. (more…)

My previous post outlined some caveats that represented uncertainty over the pattern evolution over the 2nd half of January. Recent data has diminished the uncertainty which means that a wickedly cold pattern should begin across the northern plains later next week that will eventually plunge much of the northern tier states into a similar pattern as the December 1-15, 2007 period. In fact, it is possible that for many northern tier states, which currently are around 10F above normal for the first 10 days of the month, January’s early anomalous warmth could be canceled out by anomalous cold. (more…)

NWS forecast for the higher elevations outside Mammoth Lakes, California for January 4.

Today: Periods of snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 25. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 100 to 105 mph decreasing to between 80 and 85 mph. Winds could gust as high as 145 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 45 to 51 inches possible.

Tonight: Periods of snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 13. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 75 to 80 mph decreasing to between 55 and 60 mph. Winds could gust as high as 130 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 39 to 45 inches possible.

The official hurricane forecast from NOAA is for 13-17 named storms including 7-10 hurricanes. These numbers are very similar to what would be expected from the statistical average of a La Nina summer. Over three months ago I posted here that a simple statistical analysis suggests that the 2007 Atlantic hurrican season should be above average based on the idea that a weak La Nina was expected to form during the summer. The most recent ENSO diagnostic discussion continues to suggest a weak La Nina is expected. Here is that original post.

Original Post: February 22, 2007
While it is still early to project what type of hurricane season the Atlantic basin will have in 2007, it is worth nothing that computer models anticipate that La Nina conditions are expected to rapidly develop over the next few months. What does this mean for the 2007 hurricane season? (more…)

Some of you may be wondering what exactly subtropical storm Andrea was and how it was different from a typical tropical storm. A subtropical storm is a hybrid between a tropical and extratropical storm that exhibits characteristics of each. (more…)

My April 12th post titled “Major League Baseball and cold April weather” has attracted some media attention. Jayson Stark of ESPN mentioned my article here (scroll down 2/3 of the way and look under “Cold Spell”). A sportswriter from the Canton (OH) rep wrote an editorial on it here. A cable weather show in Pennsylvania produced a 3 minute segment you can see here (click the green box on the bottom row) that featured my results. I was also linked to the baseball website Hardball Times here. It just shows that you never know what kind of research will get people interested.

Sunday 9:00 pm CDT update: What you see is what you get. No changes. See below for more details. Good luck!!

Saturday 9:00 pm CDT update: No changes to the forecast. See the Friday update for more details. This has been well-modeled from the being and it looks like the low will be centered over southern CT during the race. The heaviest rain should end by early morning but showers will be expected throughout the race. Final update will be Sunday evening. (more…)

The recent record-breaking cold April 6-9 that led to the cancellation of the Cleveland-Seattle series at Jacobs Field has had sportsradio people questioning why Major League Baseball schedules games at cold weather cities without a domed stadium during the first week of April. I decided to analyze the historical frequency of how often cold and/or snowy weather can be expected to occur at six cold weather non-domed baseball cities; Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Boston, and New York. (more…)

Storm #1 is currently underway across the central portion of the United States. A couple of lines of thundershowers have moved across south-central KY Wednesday with several inches of snow occurring north of I-80 in the Midwest. For the latest on the severe threat I will defer to the experts at the SPC. Storm #2 is currently over California and will move across Texas and into the Mid-South Friday-Saturday. The models are suggesting this storm will take a dramatically different track from previous runs and signs are pointing to a major Northeast Blizzard for Sunday-Monday. (more…)

Don’t put away the sweaters and winter jackets just yet. We have not seen the last of cold temperatures across the Midwest and Mid-South and areas near the Great Lakes have not seen the last of the white stuff either. (more…)