WKU Meteorology

Weekend with mixed results

mitchell.gaines673 — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 00:02:15 +0000

1. This looks like a half and half weekend for the mid south with more sunshine Saturday and more clouds Sunday.

2. I expect Saturday to feature high pressure over the Ohio Valley with sunny skies and light winds. Temperatures should be near40 at the start of the day and around 60 by days end. The one wrinkle for Saturday is for early morning fog Saturday due to high relative humidities and light winds in the morning. Nam model image for Saturday afternoon.

3. Sunday will feature a wave heading from the gulf coast northeast up the eastern seaboard for us this likely means an increase in clouds with the slightest shower chance. Lows should be in the lower 40’s with highs kept down in the mid 50’s due to presence of more cloud cover. Nam model image Sunday evening.

4. An update on the last post, I still think there is a chance of snow flurries either early thanksgiving morning or later on in the evening with a upper level impulse coming thorough and model projections of lows close to freezing. My thinking is based off model runs, while other organizations use a different forecasting method called MOS which forecasts temperatures primarily off normal values that is why they have highs near 50 to end out next week. A longer look into December shows A NAO trending negative, A positive PNA and a negative AO that could set the stage for a cold stormy pattern across the mid south for December.

Long Range Preview: A Cold Thanksgiving???

mitchell.gaines673 — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 06:30:11 +0000

The majority of the models used to predict the weather for the past several days led by the GFS have been hinting at a quick cool shot for late thanksgiving week with a low pressure system over the east coast or upper great lakes putting the mid south in a nw flow pattern with some wind and well below normal temperatures.

let’s take a look at Wednesday’s run of the 00z (early morning) gfs for thanksgiving day. 850 mb temp map, surface temp map, and thickness map . Note the the surface temps thanksgiving afternoon are in the 40’s but both temps at the 850 mb level and thickness values are cold enough for snow. Looking at just this model run I would go mid 40’s for highs with sprinkles then flurries at night for the mid south on thanksgiving.

A look at the same run for next Friday late afternoon. 850 mb temp map, surface temp map and thickness map. From this I would judge highs in the upper 30’s with scattered snow showers and flurries in this set-up, some rain would still potentially mix in.

Tuesday’s runs of the Canadian and Japanese models back up this GFS run to some extent while the 00z euro also has a deeper low with some snow potential at the end. For now expect a mid week front next week with a quick cool blast to get us into the winter spirit behind it for your thanksgiving plans.

I’ll be updating later this week on the Weekend forecast. One thing about the model images is they do update daily, so by Wednesday night most of them will be for different times.

Some Rain Finally in the Forecast??

mitchell.gaines673 — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 04:35:27 +0000

1. The first part of the month has been very dry across the mid south with many locations having only trace amounts of rain. However, with a large surplus heading into the month we’re still above normal in terms of annual precipitation.

2. A low pressure system which produced a snowstorm over the Rockies will continue to move east and cut-off (GFS 500 mb height image) from the main jet over the Mississippi river valley. For us this means mostly cloudy skies will continue through Thursday with this very slow moving low pressure system. Southerly flow ahead of the cut-off low will allow for ample moisture to be drawn northward into the low for Monday night through Tuesday night across the region with a likelihood of showers. The southerly flow and moisture transport will be cut-off as high pressure moves (GFS 850 mb temp image Wed pm) into the deep south by Wednesday leading to only low chances for showers on Wednesday and Thursday. Highs should be in the low 60’s on Monday and Tuesday and in the 50’s for Wednesday and Thursday as overcast will be present for the entire period. The good news is by Friday the cut-off low should dissipate and the influence of this system will be no longer present across the mid-south past Thursday.

3. This week is winter weather awareness week for Kentucky and Indiana. Now is a good time for all of us to review our winter terminology and get prepared for what mother nature may have in store for us this upcoming winter. Speaking of the winter signs are pointing to a turn to a much colder across the mid-south by the end of the month, I’ll have more on this around the middle of the week.

Weekend Forecast

robert.roberts538 — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 17:15:29 +0000

After a quiet week weather wise, you can expect a quiet weekend as well. If you don’t have any plans for the weekend I would recommend doing something outdoors. This weekend is going to be warm and beautiful. Today highs will reach the mid 60’s and the low tonight will will drop to near 40 degrees. The remainder of today should remain mostly sunny. For Saturday and Sunday expect sunny skies with highs near 70 degrees thanks to a south wind that will be warming our area. The lows shouldn’t be as cold for Saturday and Sunday night, with a low on Saturday of around 46 and Sunday 49 degrees. Get out and enjoy the weather this weekend. Thanks for checking your weekend forecast.

Wednesday Night Update

robert.roberts538 — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 01:58:15 +0000

Look for the rest of the week to remain very quiet. Our next chance of rain looks like it won’t come till early next week. With clear skies it will get a little chilly tonight with lows dipping down to around 37 degrees. Tomorrow and Friday both look to be bright blue sunny days, thanks to the influence of high pressure over our area. We can expect highs on Thursday around 60 and a high on Friday near 65 degrees. The weekend is shaping up to be a good one, come back Friday for your complete weekend forecast.

The week ahead

robert.roberts538 — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 18:47:57 +0000

There is not much going on in our area this week. Most of the week should remain pleasant and dry with the exception of a slight chance of showers on Tuesday. Your Monday should remain mostly cloudy with high temperatures around 70 degrees and a low around 50. Tuesday’s rain chances are associated with a cold front passing over are area and an increase in gulf moisture thanks to tropical storm Ida. Tuesday we can expect a high around 67 and a low around 47 degrees. The cold front will not drop the temperature too much with temps in the lower 60’s on Wednesday and temperatures rebounding as the week progresses. This weeks big weather news is tropical storm Ida. The biggest concerns for Ida will be the rain impacts across the deep South. Depending on the path, parts of Alabama and Georgia could pick up substantial amounts of rain. Ida should not affect our area in terms of rain but will help to keep us cloudy on Monday and Tuesday. As Ida drifts off to the east on Wednesday and Thursday, the clouds will go along with it. Come back Wednesday for your mid-week update.

A welcomed pattern

landon.hampton — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:58:46 +0000

Not too much going on in the weather world. Nice pattern of partly sunny skies and fall like temperatures have keep up a repetition through the early parts of the week. Things should remain calm throughout our area, with surface high pressure dominating the Ohio valley. Zonal flow is also expected to continue throughout the week. Temperature today will hit the lower 60’s before dropping to a low of 40 tonight. A bit cooler tomorrow with a high of only 52, followed by another chilly night with a low hitting right at freezing.

Weekend looks cool, but nice

anthony.bedel713 — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 03:23:18 +0000

After a soggy evening overnight tonight, the current storm system should continue to advance on to the northeast, leaving clear and sunny conditions behind. The weather over south central Kentucky was quite breezy and warm on Friday. In fact, the high temperature soared all the way to 79, which is 15 degrees above the normal high for October 30th. You have to go back to 2004 (82) to find a warmer high temperature for Bowling Green on October 30th. Furthermore, the low temperature this morning (67) was 26 degrees above normal. Winds were also quite steady out of the south all afternoon with gusts reaching near 40 mph. But as the rains have moved into the area, the winds have shifted to the west, steadily dropping our temperature overnight. It appears that the low temperature tonight will bottom-out in the low-50s. We should receive about 0.75 inch of rain before the system finally moves out before sunrise on Saturday.

The low temperature tomorrow morning will hardly budge despite generally clear and sunny skies during the afternoon. Continued steady winds of about 10 mph out of the west should keep the high temperature down in the low- to mid-50s. Tomorrow night the winds will finally die down and allow for optimal radiational cooling overnight. This will result in a very typical and chilly late October evening for your Halloween festivities, as the temperature should fall into the mid-30s. And expect more of the same for your Sunday as the high temperature should climb back to the mid-50s with plenty of sunshine and light winds.

Enjoy your weekend, and have a safe and happy Halloween!

Clouds linger today, rain returns Thursday night

anthony.bedel713 — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 16:42:10 +0000

While stubborn overcast conditions remain over the area this afternoon and evening, the skies should clear out tonight for a generally nice Thursday afternoon ahead of more rain and thunderstorms tomorrow night. The clouds should stick around for awhile today, but we’ll gradually clear out overnight. The high temperature this afternoon won’t get much higher than 60 given the overcast situation, and the low temperature tonight should fall to near 50 once the skies clear out. We’ll begin tomorrow with sunny skies across south central Kentucky that should continue into the afternoon. It will also be somewhat breezy out of the south as the low-level jet should intensify out ahead of the next advancing storm system. The GFS suggests that the jet at 850 mb will be around 30 knots by late tomorrow afternoon. This will pull moist air into our area from the Gulf and raise our dew point temperature to near 60 by tomorrow evening. Coupled with sunny conditions that will raise our high temperature into the low-70s, this would normally be shaping up for a fairly severe weather event.

This will likely not be the case for south central Kentucky, however. The storm system that is currently slamming the central Rockies with a bitter winter storm will advance into the Plains overnight tonight. The low pressure center currently over New Mexico will advect warm, moist air from the Gulf into the ArkLaTex region, eastern Oklahoma, and even southern Missouri tomorrow morning and afternoon. The SPC believes that these areas will experience damaging winds from a MCS that will develop out ahead of this system, with possible supercells and tornadoes ahead of the MCS in the warm sector.

But by the time that this system rides the jet stream northeastward into our area, it will be well after sunset and into the overnight hours. So we should expect some rain and thunderstorms for our area, but nothing severe appears likely. It looks to be a soggy start to the weekend as the bulk of the rain should arrive in our area Friday morning and afternoon.

Check back on Friday for a look at the rest of your weekend.

Showers for your Tuesday

anthony.bedel713 — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 02:29:38 +0000

After a nice Monday that saw temperatures climb into the upper-60s, rain showers will enter the area on Tuesday evening.Tonight should be quite clear across south central Kentucky, allowing for radiative cooling to drop our low temperature into the mid-40s. We begin tomorrow clear and sunny across the region. Clouds, however, will begin rolling into the area during the afternoon hours, keeping our high temperature down around 60. By about 4 or 5 in the afternoon, spotty showers will develop over south central Kentucky. While the upper-level support is not at all impressive, a significant vorticity maximum at 500 mb will track from our southwest into the region and should provide enough lift to produce some rain showers. I don’t anticipate that these will be soakers though since the winds at 850 mb will be very light, meaning that our area will be cut-off from any major moisture sources. Once the rain showers move off to the northeast, around a quarter inch of rain will have fallen across the area. The overnight low in the low-50s on Tuesday will be regulated somewhat by cloudy skies. Wednesday is shaping up to be quite nice for us, as sunshine and clear skies will dry us out and raise the high temperature to near 70.

Meanwhile out in the west, a serious-looking jet streak of 150+ knots will be diving south along the Pacific coast during the day on Tuesday. This streak will carve out a very strong trough over the southwest. The insuing meridional pattern appears to be so deep that the 540 thickness line may reach the Mexican border along Arizona and New Mexico by Wednesday. This trough, on top of some significant vorticity and a strong low-level jet, will develop and track northeastward where it will produce severe weather during the day on Thursday across eastern Oklahoma and Texas.

It remains to be seen just how potent this storm system will be for us on Friday. At this time, it appears that the strong jet streak mentioned above will have reached the eastern leg of the trough by Thursday, meaning it will help raise the trough back into a more zonal pattern. This would certainly hamper our chances at thunderstorms and severe weather.

Check back in on Wednesday for an updated look at this developing weather scenario.