1.  Friday will be a great day! Fair skies and highs from 70-75 after morning lows in the upper 40′s.

2. Saturday a low pressure system will develop along the gulf coast advecting clouds and moisture northward into the region. As a result, nighttime lows will be warmer around 50 with highs in the mid to upper 70′s. A little warmer due to return flow. I can’t rule out a shower or two late based on the timing with some of the modeling.

3. Sunday The low pressure system will continue to track along the gulf coast This will result in widespread showers and rumbles of thunder mainly across the south. There is quite a difference in model QPF. However several of the GFS ensemble members are wetter than the operational. I also feel that the ECMWF is to aggressive with QPF. I’m thinking a 1/3-2/3 inch of rainfall for Sunday. Lows will be around 60 with highs only around 70 due to clouds and rain.

4. Next week this system may be a slow-mover which can dent the rainfall deficit. The WKU field methods course out in the plains also starts next week Should be a few active days to start. They will update the blog starting next week for the duration of the trip.

5. Already seeing some tropical interest peaked on the GFS around memorial day with a hit to the southeast U.S, a very long ways away and I don’t think it is likely.

6. From all of us who are graduating this spring and summer we thank you for checking out this site for weather information. This has been an important resume and forecasting skills builder for many here in the meteorology department!

GAINES

1. Monday a front will move into the region. With this will bring a likelihood of showers and storms in the afternoon and night. instability will be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms with hail and gusty winds. I don’t expect widespread severe weather due to the lakc of shear in place. Highs will be in the low 80′s after morning lows in the low 60′s. My main concern is for the storms to be slow moves with training and slow eastward progression, this may lead to some isolated high water  issues as well.

2.  Tuesday the front checks up to our southeast. As a result, clouds and a few showers may linger . Lows will be around 60 with highs in the mid 70′s. Wednesday may feature similar conditions. Lows in the upper 50′s and highs in the low 70′s.

3. Thursday will be sunny with lows in the upper 40′s and highs in the upper 60′s.

4. Overall the pattern into the middle of the week establishes an east coast trough for week 2 of May as pointed out by the ECMWF weekly model last week. My thinking is more fronts and storms to keep the heat in check till the last week of the month.

GAINES

Sorry for the break in coverage on the blog. However I will be forecasting for you till the close of the semester.

1. Today we have a Stationary front parked over the Ohio river and a cold front with low pressure over the central plains. This will transport warm and moist air into the region. The frontal boundary may also serve to trigger some scattered storms primarily to our north. A sufficient amount of instability will be present today, marked by steep low level lapse rates ( change in temperature with height) and CAPE values of 1500-2500 J/KG. This may promote a threat for damaging winds and large hail with any storm. Highs will be in the 80′s today with mostly sunny skies. Storm chances are only around 30%.

2. Sunday and Monday the stationary boundary to our north lifts a little further north as a warm front and the cold front stays over the plains. This allows ridging to continue to build over our region. This results in sinking air at the surface preventing convection development and keeping any storm chance isolated (15%) at best with mostly sunny skies. Though once again  instability will be sufficient for any isolated storm to become severe with similar threats to today. lows will be in the lower 60′s with highs in the low to mid 80′s. Winds through Tuesday should be out of the south and not to gusty.

3. Tuesday the cold frontal boundary approaches which is the trigger needed to increase storm chances to likely. Also shear will increase as well giving us our best chance of severe weather for the forecast  period. Though if storms arrive to early then instability will lack due to cloud cover. Lows will be in the lower 60′s with highs in the 70′s.

GAINES

Unseasonably warm conditions continue to be the story across much of the eastern half of the US, as seen in the surface temperature map provided by TwisterData.com for Thursday at 18z (1PM).  A large upper level ridge is parked over the area bringing high temperatures in the lower 80s and low temperatures in the 60s.  The record for yesterday (March 14^th) was 82 set in 1967 and yesterday’s high was 81.  These warm conditions will continue for the weekend and early next week.  These warm and moist conditions will also produce summer like storms.  Expect an increase in chances for your Thursday and Friday as an upper level disturbance moves through the area.  These storms will likely not be severe, but heavy rain and small hail are not out of the question.  Since the convection will be mostly unorganized you might want to check local radar for the next several days if planning outdoor activities.

By: Dustin Jordan

A band of heavy rain will move through this afternoon and evening bringing rainfall totals from 2-3 inches. small streams and creeks will likely rise quick later today.

Would not be surprised to see totals near an inch. The secondary low for Saturday appears to be Sunday timing instead with warmer conditions so no threat of frz rain. enjoy the rest of spring break!

2. Tuesday skies will be sunny with some southerly flow. I expect a quick warm-up with highs in the mid 60′s.

3. Another sunny day Wednesday with southerly flow lows will range from the mid to upper 40′s. Highs will be in the 60′s.

4. A split flow pattern evolves by mid-week with a cut-off low over the desert southwest and a front moving across the great lakes. Increasing clouds Wednesday night and southwest winds may keep temps in the 50′s.

5. The cut-off low forms a low over the Arkansas region Thursday. Severe weather stays south of our region since the low track is south. However periods of rain are likely from Thursday afternoon into Friday. Temperatures Thursday should rise into the 60′s before falling into the 40′s early Friday with highs in the 50′s on Friday.

6. Low level cold drills in by Saturday morning lows may be in the  low 30′s. Our frontal boundary moves south of the region, the most likely case is what the models are showing a sunny cold day Saturday. However I would not be surprised to see a secondary low along the front make a run at the region with a freezing rain/rain mix.

NWS report on the southern supercell from Friday

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
432 PM EST Mon Mar 05 2012

...Damage Report for Simpson and Warren counties in Kentucky...

Damage Type: Straight Line Wind Damage

       Date: Mar 02 2012
 Begin Time:  4:48 PM EST
   End Time:  5:05 PM EST

Begin Point: 4 NNW Franklin
  End Point: 2 SE Alvaton

 Wind Speed: 80-90 mph

   Injuries: 0
 Fatalities: 0

Damage Type: Tornado

       Date: Mar 02 2012
 Begin Time:  5:05 PM EST
   End Time:  5:07 PM EST

Begin Point: 2 SE Alvaton
  End Point: 2 E Alvaton

   EF Scale: 1
 Wind Speed: 95 mph

Path Length: 2 miles
 Path Width: 60 yards

   Injuries: 0
 Fatalities: 0

Narrative:

Straight line wind damage along and north of the super cell moving
through Simpson County uprooting shallow-rooted hardwood and
softwood trees and destroying a tool shed on Evans Rd.  As it moved
into Warren county it damaged barn roofs and produced golf ball size
hail which penetrated siding on numerous vinyl sided houses.  As it
reached 961 east of Alvaton in Warren county, it spawned an EF1
tornado with winds estimated at 95 mph destroying a barn and tool
shed.

$$

WEW/RJS

Here are some youtube videos

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWEeE8kgqoM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBZXKoOW7yk

CNN news article

http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/03/us/severe-weather/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

Here is a radar image from the Washington post and Stu Ostro of the weather Chanel.

This is an image of a supercell storm at peak intensity, you can see the hook portion heading into west Liberty.

Radar image. the different colars measure the wind sepped going from and toward the radar. Where they meet you have the tornado.

image from texas storm chasers

I would post more but I’m sure have many of the same searching methods as I do. I’ll post final numbers sometime next week.

The clipper will take a climatological track north of BG Sunday night. Louisville, Lexington and many of the tornado affected regions of east KY may see a inch perhaps a few of snow. For BG expect some scattered rain showers, maybe a little mixes in, temps stay above 32.

I’m signaling the all clear. I’ll post if anything on damage in the region later tonight or Saturday.

A tornado warning is in effect till 4:30.