Rain Chances are on the Increase Heading Into this Weekend!

Throughout the rest of this evening and heading into tomorrow morning, slightly warmer temperatures will advect into the Ohio River Valley, thanks to light winds out of the south. Overnight temperatures around the area are going to be a lot warmer than they have been over the past few nights. Temperatures will hover around the 50° mark throughout the night and into tomorrow morning. Rain chances are on the increase heading into the overnight hours as a weak shortwave disturbance propagates just to our north. This disturbance will tap into some of the moisture located in the lower levels of the atmosphere and spark off some shower activity. QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) will remain fairly light, with rainfall totals by daybreak right around a tenth of an inch.

Below: HRRR Composite Reflectivity 11/30/18 08Z (2 AM CST)

Heading into your Friday, extensive cloud cover will limit the temperatures from rising too much throughout the day, but temperatures will still remain well above average. The high temperature on Friday will hover right around the 60° mark. Shower chances will remain on the higher side for Friday night, as a boundary will hover around the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys, triggering some showers around the area. Models are in agreement, indicating that a half to three-quarters of an inch of rain could fall by Saturday morning. The LLJ (Low-Level Jet) will crank up out of the southwest as a surface warm front moves north through our area. Low temperatures for Friday night, heading into Saturday morning will remain in the mid-50s.

Below: NAM 12-hr Accumulated QPF (in) 12/01/18 12Z (6 AM CST)

Any shower activity lingering around the will move on out of the area by the mid-to-late morning on Saturday. Slightly drier air will try to nose into the region, breaking up some of the cloud cover, areas west of the I-65 corridor could experience some sunshine during the early afternoon hours. As of right now, the area still has a shot of seeing some strong thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center has the Bowling Green area under a marginal risk (1 out of 5 on the Categorial Outlook Legend) for severe weather. Stay tuned to the WKU Meteorology Blog and White Squirrel WX for further updates.

Forecast

Tonight: Chance of showers, low right around 50°. Winds out of the south at 8-10 mph, precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch.

Friday: Showers likely with cloudy skies, high of 61°. Winds out of the southwest at 5-9 mph, precipitation amounts below a quarter inch.

Friday night: Chance of showers, low of 54°. Winds out of the south at 8-15 mph, precipitation amounts between a half and three-quarters of an inch.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon, a few storms could be on the strong side, high of 67°. Winds out of the south at 15-20 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph, precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch.

 

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Brrr! It’s Cold!!!

A powerful cold front equipped with gusty winds has impacted those high temperatures at the start of the week. Temperatures are going to be in the upper teens for both Wednesday and Thursday morning in most of the Mid-South Region. Temperatures will then excel into the 20°F margin by sunrise and into the upper 30°F due to a little Sun exposure. A report from the NWS discusses the Winter Advisory for some areas north of us…

“The Bluegrass region will have the longest residence time under the stratus deck and continuing light snow showers so will keep the Winter Weather Advisory going in that area for light accumulations of snow, and some impacted roadways. In addition, the current Special Weather Statement looks good through Midnight in all of the counties not in the Advisory but still under the stratus deck as it continues to snow. Slick spots should be more patchy in nature in these areas along with any light accumulations a half an inch or less. Will likely be able to trim some counties out of the SPS at Midnight, but will also probably have to extend some of the counties further north and east deeper into the overnight.” -NWS Forecast Discussion

The downstream trough leading into a ridge will become pivotal towards bringing colder air and the windy conditions throughout your Tuesday and Wednesday evening. Be sure to be careful while driving on the roads and be sure to secure the wheel with both hands! Bundle up those glands this week for the wind chill will cause temperatures to decrease below freezing for much of your day. Gloves, earmuffs, mittens, toboggans, are all to be included for Wednesday’s forecast. Thursday warms up just a tad with some sunnier weather adventuring from our west and we could possibly see 6o°F by Friday.

WEDN: 37°/17°F; Mostly sunny skies with a calmer wind gust. Dry air conditions due to lower dew points as that northerly flow converts to westerly. No precip

THURS: 43°F/28°F; Slight overcast and increasing clouds with systematic low off the Gulf coast. Some chances for early morning showers at 30% and afternoon showers at 50%.

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What a Cold Front!

In the past 24 hours, the air temperature has dropped 26 degrees. Yesterday we were sitting at a very comfortable 62 degrees; today, we’re sitting at 36. It’s nothing out of the ordinary for temperatures to swing like this during this time of year, but that doesn’t make experiencing the swing any easier. But if you hold on tight for the duration of the current temperature rollercoaster, you’ll be rewarded with a welcomed warm-up later this week. Let’s get started!

Today has been cold and very windy. Temperatures will stay in the 30s for the rest of the afternoon and drop into the mid 20s tonight. Those westerly winds will be calmer tonight that what they were yesterday, but they will continue to add an extra “bite” to the already cold conditions. Dense cloud cover will remain for the evening and nighttime hours.

GOES-16 satellite picture of the heavy cloud cover we had all day. Notice the snow in the upper left-hand corner in portions of Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri. -Courtesy of College of DuPage Weather

Tuesday will be a clone of today until the evening rolls around. Cloud cover will decrease throughout the afternoon resulting in clear skies overnight into Wednesday morning. The removal of that deep cloud layer allows the longwave radiation emitted by the earth’s surface to escape into the upper levels of the atmosphere. Just like removing a blanket during the middle of the night, the loss of clouds will make for a very cold night: temps will reach deep down into the lower 20s for BG and potentially into the upper teens. This will be especially true for areas outside of the city limits.

After a very cold start, Wednesday will be a little warmer than today and Tuesday. Temps will edge right up to 40 for the high as southerly winds and clear sky conditions add some warmth to South Central KY.

And here’s a sneak peak at rising temps late on Thursday:

18Z GFS 2m temps, 10m winds, and pressure Thursday night. -Courtesy College of DuPage Weather

 

Tonight: Low of 25, but gusty conditions will make it feel like it’s in the teens. Winds from the West at 10 mph, but gusts will be around 16 mph.

Tuesday: High of 36, winds will still be gusting to near 20 mph.

Wednesday: Cool start of 20, but warming up to 40 by mid-afternoon.

Thursday: The first taste of the warming trend. High temps will be in the low 50s throughout the southern half of the Commonwealth.

Continue tuning in to see just how high our temps will go the closer we get to the weekend!

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One Month Before Christmas!

Well as my title says, we are at one month until Christmas Day! After getting full of Thanksgiving goodies I imagine many families cranked up the Christmas tunes, got out the eggnog, and put up the tree. While today won’t exactly feel Christmas like, the rest of the week will as a cold front pushes its way across the area. Right now winds are coming from the south east but will shift to the northern directions. We will experience some heavy later because of this.

GOES 16 satellite imagery

Satellite imagery is showing some upper level clouds as well as that heavy fog that’s been talked about. There is an advisory out at the moment for that fog so please be careful!

We will see some showers later on into tonight so make sure to keep an umbrella with you. As temperatures head towards freezing for Monday morning, it is possible to see a few pop up flurries.

A high pressure system will come through Monday to dry things up for Monday and Tuesday. It will be cold, but uneventful.

SUMMARY:

  • Sunday:
    • High: 67
    • Low: 35
    • There is a 40 % chance of rain later today going up to 60% this evening. A potential for flurries in the early hours.
  • Monday:
    • High: 39
    • Low: 22
  • Tuesday:
    • High: 37
    • Low: 23

Have a fun and safe week everyone!

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Turkey Weekend Forecast

Greetings!

Hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving Day and if you participate in Black Friday hope you found great deals. The weather yesterday was a perfect November day. Today will not be as great. With the southerly flow there will be an increase in clouds as the day progresses  and gusts up to 20 mph. The high temperature will be similar to Turkey Day, around average for this time of year, this is caused by the warm air advection. As a low pressure from the plains heads into our area, we will see soaking night potential to see half an itch total of rain over tonight.

At midnight, the NAM is showing about .27″ around the area. Increasing till day break on Saturday when it looks to mid .30″.

Saturday temperature are looking to be  around upper 50s and lows to be around low 40s. There is also a chance to see rain showers throughout  Saturday. Sunday could be well above average with temperatures with in the mid to upper 60s in some places and there are some indications to see low 70s in other places. There will be a dramatic drop in temperatures with the rainfall overspreading the area and a low races to the great lakes and will bring cold northwest winds into the area. Monday highs could be in the lower 40s, a good 20-25 degree drop from Sunday.

Summary:

Friday: 55/46 with a great chance to see rain tonight

Saturday:  60/42 with a slight chance to see rain throughout the day

Sunday: 64/32 With a great chance to see rain starting in the afternoon into the evening  clearing at night

Monday: 37/23 with winds at 10-20 mph

 

 

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Thanksgiving Day Forecast

Ah… It’s finally that time of year!  Turkey, stuffing, mashed potatoes, casserole, mac and cheese, pies- you name it, I’m certainly about to eat it!  This year’s Thanksgiving should be a great one across much of the US, and Bowling Green is no exception.  Thanksgiving day will be a beautiful one, spend some time outdoors if you can before more unsettled weather returns!

Here’s a run of the 0z NAMNEST, showing that it should be clear across much of our region Thursday.  Outdoor Thanksgiving plans are a go.

Your Thanksgiving Day forecast:

Clear skies!  No chance of rain.  High of 59, Low of 37.  Thankful for the nice weather this Thanksgiving!

Friday: High of 56, Low of 49- Showers likely towards late afternoon/evening

Saturday: High of 62, Low of 44- Showers early, clearing in the morning

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Thanksgiving Travel

As the short school/work week draws to a close, it’s time to focus on drawing near to our loved ones. But before we can do that, we have to get to them first! Whether you’re flying or driving, here are the forecasts for some big cities and interstates that you’ll probably pass through or use.

Driving:

I-65: From Nashville, Tennessee, to Mobile, Alabama, this route will be clear of any weather related problems both Tuesday and Wednesday. But keep a cautious eye out because traffic problems still tend to occur all along this road even without wet weather. From Nashville to Louisville, a couple light showers are possible early Tuesday. Once you cross over the Ohio River, those rain chances will change to light snow especially as you approach the Windy City early Tuesday morning. The second half of Tuesday and all day Wednesday looks clear for the entirety of this interstate.

I-35: Splitting the East from the West, this road through the heartland will be clear from Minneapolis to Dallas both Tuesday and Wednesday.

I-80: From New York to Chicago to San Francisco, this path could experience some problems on the ends closest to each coast. In New York and Pennsylvania, drivers need to watch out for intermittent snow showers for most of the day Wednesday. On the western end, rain showers will increase greatly during the evening hours for the northern half of California.

I-95: The longest interstate along the East coast will experience some midday showers points South of Charleston, SC, and a rain/snow mix points North of New York City for most of the day and night on Tuesday. Wednesday looks clear as can be, but watch out for slick spots caused by leftover snow or frozen puddles from rain the day/night before if you are driving North of Boston especially.

Flying:

Nashville (BNA): High temps in the mid to upper 40s both days with an overnight low deep down in the lower 30s. Dry

Atlanta (ATL): Temps in the mid to upper 50s both days with an overnight low dipping into the upper 30s.

New York (JFK/LGA): Tuesday could squeeze out a high around 40, but will dip down into the 20s overnight and remain in the 30s all day Wednesday.

Los Angeles (LAX): Mid 60s (near 70 for some) on Tuesday and dropping into the low 50s overnight. Temps will only creep back into the low 60s on Wednesday.

US Road Map- Courtesy of Wallydogwear.com

 

If you’re staying around Bowling Green, high temps will be in the mid-40s both days and drop to the mid-20s during the night Tuesday in Wednesday. Tuesday will be mostly cloudy while Wednesday will clear out very nicely.

Safe travels and have a Happy Thanksgiving!

 

 

 

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Much Improved Temperatures

Good afternoon everyone!

If you haven’t had an opportunity to step outside, please do! It feels like we should in April or May not November. There are some clouds floating about, but there is still plenty of space for the sun to shine through. Here’s a quick picture I grabbed outside my dorm:

There is a stationary front laying horizontally across Kentucky at the moment with a cold front on its backside meaning today’s amazing temperatures will not last into the rest of the week. As the cold front passes through, winds will change from the south and south west to coming from the north.

https://climate.cod.edu/data/surface/US_zoom/contour/current/USZOOM.fronts.gif

GOES 16 Satellite Imagery

Radars are showing some showers to the south west that may make their way into the area tonight and tomorrow.

There’s around a 40% for tonight and around 50% chance for rain.

SUMMARY:

  • Sunday:
    • High: 63
    • Low: 37
    • Enjoy the warm whether while you can!
  • Monday:
    • High: 54
    • Low: 41
    • There is a 50% chance Monday.
  • Tuesday:
    • High: 41
    • Low: 32

Have a safe Thanksgiving everyone!

 

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Warmer but Cloudy Weekend

Shortwave IR Satellite (Source: COD)

It looks like a great start to our morning with few clouds and lots of sunshine for our Saturday. Temperatures will be much warmer compared to these last few days, with highs today heading up to the mid 50’s, and lows into the mid-30’s. A short-lived high pressure center moving through will attribute to these sunny skies. Despite this, we are looking into a cloudy weekend.

The above image is a map of projected cloud cover, and Sunday is projected to be a cloudy one, but there will be times that skies are more clear. Highs will be similar to Saturday, with temperatures in the mid-upper 50’s. Lows for Sunday will be in the mid 40’s. As we head overnight and into Monday afternoon, there is a small chance for rain showers. Highs will be cooler than what we’ll see for this weekend with temperatures in the mid-upper 40’s; lows will be in a similar range to the highs for Monday in the mid-lower 40’s.

Forecast:

Saturday: Sunny and warm, High: 58, Low: 33

Sunday: Overall cloudy and similarly warm to Saturday, High: 56, Low: 44

Monday: In the morning, 30% chance of showers, otherwise generally cloudy, High: 47, Low: 44

 

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A Change of Pace This Weekend

Greetings!

I do not know about you, but I am ready to see the sun and feel the warm air again. The weekend looks to bring that to us. Friday will start mostly cloudy with chilly temperature in the low to mid 30s. However, in southern Kentucky with clearing skies as the day goes progresses we will see highs in the upper 40s into the lower 50s.

In the over night hours there is an increase in moisture in the lower levels mixed with the cooling could lead to the formation of fog in central Kentucky. There is potential for freezing fog with temperatures with the lows into the lower 30s. This shouldn’t be to   impactful with ground temperatures above freezing.

The dark blue is were the moisture is located.

Saturday looks to be lovely and above average for this time of year. The high around low 60s and the average is in the mid 50s. with the low is in the upper 30s which the average low. As the high pressure moves away there are indications of small rain showers moving in the area in the later afternoon into the evening hours

If the rain can not beat the dry air on Saturday, then there is a better chance Sunday afternoon to see some light rain showers.

Summary:

Friday: 51/30

Saturday: 59/39 very small chance of rain, mostly sunny

Sunday: 54/37 increase in rain chance in the evening hours.

 

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