Here Come The Cold Shots…

Over the next week and a half, much of the U.S. (including us!) will experience multiple shots of cold air.  The models have been remarkably consistent with the cooler pattern taking over, at least for now.  The first cold shot will be Friday night into Saturday morning-  you can expect upper 20s for our region with chilly winds around 12 mph.  Bring all your plants and pets indoors!  The run of the NAM shown below really helps to illustrate how deep this cold will get:

With each shot of cold air, there is some slight potential for- you heard right- snowflakes!  For the period of Friday into Saturday, some of the short range models have started showing the possibility for a few stray snow showers in the region.  This will be something to keep an eye on over the coming days, however the better chance at seeing flakes actually comes with the second blast of cold air Monday into Tuesday:

Above is the GFS for that second blast of cold air.  Temperatures could fall into the 20s again, and have yet another chance at seeing a few flakes.  It’s still pretty far out from now, so we’ll have to watch how this unfolds over the coming days!

There is a third blast of cold air after next week on the horizon- or at least the signal for it is there.  No doubt you’ll be needing your heavy coats at times over at least the next few weeks.

Tonight: Low of 36, Partly Cloudy

Tomorrow: High of 54, Low of 40 , Scattered Showers

Friday: High 47, Low 29, Rainy and Cold- chance of a snowflake late

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Cooling Factor Ahead

Good afternoon WKU!

It’s Tuesday and Happy Election Day young citizens! This is a great day to get out and cast your vote for the upcoming state elections. Voting is very important as a democratic nation, and since the rain has ceased revealing perfect fall weather, there won’t be any excuse to defy the odds before polls close at 6pm. But first, a quick weather recap of Monday’s rain accumulation.

Monday’s rain totals were just several notches away from two inches in Bowling Green, Ky.! The final observation was calculated to be 1.79″ of rainfall (courtesy of NWS Climatological Report).

Tuesday will be less of a rain threat due to the moisture being wrung out of the area from a cold frontal passage. Skies began to open up this morning unveiling partly cloudy skies with a glimpse of sun. Maximum temperature for today will be 65°F but conditions start to get drastically colder after this evening.

A second cold sector sweeps through the Mid-South area associated with a fast moving cold front. Considerably, maximum temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will be in the middle tier of 50°F. Rain chances will be prevalent for Wednesday morning before 7am but will soon clear out for a chilly and breezy day.

Overall, Tuesday is Election Day! This year’s votes involve congressional, Kentucky House and Senate, mayoral, city council and judicial races, and a constitutional amendment, among others. Temperatures are suitable enough to get out there and make your voice heard.

GO VOTE!

Tuesday: Partly sunny with a slight westerly wind, drier conditions due to passage of cold frontal boundary. 65°F/48°F

Tuesday PM: Mostly clear with a calming wind of about 3 mph. Overnight low of 49°F.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy; Morning scattered rain chances of 30% then deteriorate to a drier atmosphere and windier conditions.  53°F/39°F

 

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Potential Severe Weather Tonight

As Kelli mentioned yesterday, a line of strong to severe storms will push through South Central KY this evening and into the overnight hours. Previously, the Storm Prediction Center placed Bowling Green in an enhanced risk for severe storms, but BG has been downgraded to a slight risk as of this morning. However, that does not mean you can let down your guard! Let’s walk through the components for severe weather and which of these conditions we expect to have today and tonight.

For strong storms to develop, one should look for 3 big things: moisture, lift, and instability. A fourth ingredient – wind shear (speed and directional) – provides additional support for the development of severe storms, specifically supercells and possibly tornadoes.

12Z NAM showing DPs increasing throughout the afternoon and evening to values in the low to mid 60s. – Courtesy Pivotal Weather

Ahead of the storms, we’ll see moisture and warm air advect from the southwest. The dew point temperature and air temperature in Bowling Green right now (1pm data) are 53 and 64 respectively. A warm front will be pushing into our area during the early evening hours and increase our those values into the low 60’s and upper 60’s respectively. One thing reducing the potential for additional lift attributed to warm air temps is cloud cover. Because of the decent cloud cover we have experienced throughout the morning to noontime hours and the additional cloud cover we will have during the peak heating hours, this will keep our temperatures cooler and reduce (but not eliminate) at least one ingredient for severe weather. Currently, we’re experiencing a clearing trend, so the sun is having its first opportunity to add more significant energy to the lowest levels of the atmosphere.

12Z NAM showing MUCAPE values around 500 J/kg just ahead of the arrival of the QLCS. – Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

The amount of instability typically required for severe storms can vary greatly depending on what time of year the storms occur. Summer time storms require massive amounts of CAPE (convective available potential energy), but storms during the Fall don’t need values nearly as high. Expected CAPE for this event will be around 500 J/kg, which is enough to fire up some storms; however, if storms develop ahead of the Quasi-Linear Convective System (QLCS) that we’re expecting, they will consume some of the required CAPE to create a severe environment for the main line of storms.

12Z NAM depiction of rain (first frame at 3pm, last frame at 3am). – Courtest of Pivotal Weather

One final thing to consider is the amount of rain that will fall during this relatively short period of time. Models are pointing to a widespread area of an inch of rain, but many places could receive upwards of 2+ inches if they experience storms ahead of the QLCS. Be extra careful if you are out and about during the late night/extremely early morning hours. Turn around, don’t drown.

With all of this in mind, there will be sufficient moisture and decent CAPE (instability) and decent lift to create severe weather, but lift and CAPE will be reduced if cloud cover over our area remains throughout the day and if storms fire off ahead of the QLCS. Therefore, make sure to tune in to your favorite weather source tonight, whether that’s TV, radio, or social media. Also, stay safe by having a plan for your entire family. This includes everyone knowing where to take cover (an inner room on the lowest floor of whatever building you’re in with no windows) and having a weather radio on hand.

Weather concerns: mainly winds greater than 60 mph, slight chance for a tornado, flash flooding possible, no significant large hail threat for our area.

For updates during the event, you can follow any of these WKU Storm Team social media accounts:

Facebook: WKU Storm Team

Twitter: @wkustormteam

Instagram: @wkustormteam

 

 

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In the Cold November Kentucky Rain

Last Thursday Louisville’s Meteorologist in Charge, John Gordon, asked Twitter to give the names of some famous rain songs. Of course, two that had to be mentioned were “November Rain” by Guns n’ Roses and “Kentucky Rain” by Elvis Presley. The start of this week will be the perfect time for both songs. A cold front out to the west with a low pressure system centered in Iowa is making its way towards the area this evening. With it will come cooler temperature along as well as rain.

https://climate.cod.edu/data/surface/US_zoom/contour/current/USZOOM.fronts.gif

GFS is showing some low end bulk shear coming through the area starting Monday night going into Tuesday. This along with winds gusts and increased vorticity shows for the potential for severe weather stating tomorrow night. Right now it looks like everyone should keep an extra eye out starting around 6 pm tomorrow.

GFS vertical vorticity

Models are showing rain fall totals between 1 and 2 inches. I believe there will be areas that see 2 or more inches. Winds will have the possibility of knocking limbs out of branches and could cause some to lose electricity if gusts reach high enough.

SUMMARY:

  • Sunday:
    • High: 61
    • Low: 47
    • Some precipitation
  • Monday:
    • High: 69
    • Low: 55
    • Rain along with strong winds.
    • NOTE: There is the potential for severe weather staring tomorrow evening. There will be strong winds with gusts up to 65 mph, potential for flooding as well as isolated tornadoes.
  • Tuesday:
    • High: 65
    • Low: 45
    • Chance of precipitation.

As always: please be safe and have a good week!

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Weekend Warming (with a end to Daylight Savings)

A ridge has allowed for Bowling Green citizens to enjoy sunny skies for our Saturday. It won’t be so warm today with highs only in the mid-50’s, and lows getting down to the low 40’s. However, as we conclude our weekend, we will experience a radical change in weather conditions. The conclusion of this weekend also spells the end of daylight savings time. Remember to set your clocks back one hour and enjoy your extra hour of sleep.

Sunday is facing a chance of rain as the afternoon progresses; nevertheless, there will be warmer temperatures, with highs into the upper 50’s and lows in the mid to upper 40’s.

Monday will face a greater chance for rain into the evening and overnight, with otherwise little activity for the morning. Highs will be in the low 60’s and lows will be in the low 50’s as Monday will face more warming towards the evening.

Summary:

Saturday: Sunny skies, High: 59, Low: 41

Sunday: 50% chance for rain in the afternoon, High: 60, Low: 48

Monday: 80% chance for rain in the evening hours, High: 60, Low: 50

 

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Weekend Forecast

Greetings

I am sure everyone notice that temperature drop that happened in the evening into the night time.  The cold front that is currently in Mid-Atlantic came through the area yesterday evening. Expect the rest of today to to stay dry, but the clouds to stay and  the cold air behind the front make the temperature barely get over the 50s.

There is a trend in the models indicating a short wave passing through this afternoon to spark a slight chance of isolated showers in the early evening hours. The NAM and the GFS are not agreeing about the slight rain chance this evening.

Saturday looks to be a beautiful day with a high pressure ridging axis going northwest will bring some warmer weather with the highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s through-out the area. However, Sunday into Sunday night looks to be wet again. As a low pressure coming from the west bringing a chance of rain to us Sunday afternoon. GFS 06Z is putting the rain here at 21z, 4 pm Central time.

Forecast:

Friday: 54/38 with a slight chance of rain this afternoon

Saturday: 61/47

Sunday: 66/50 with a chance of rain

 

 

 

 

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Soggy Start to the Month of November

Good evening folks!!

The rain from earlier today associated with an area of low pressure has moved on out of here. Cloudy skies will remain over the area for the rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Winds that are currently out of the S and SW will shift thanks to a cold front that will slowly drift eastward. Temperatures behind the front will drop into the 40s throughout the area with winds out of the NW at 15 mph with occasional gusts to 25 mph. Low temperatures for tonight will drop to around 44° in the Bowling Green area.

Below: IDV Surface Temperature 11-02-18 12z

Heading into Friday, scattered showers will linger around the area as the area of low pressure continues to move off towards the northeast. As it moves towards the northeast, it will drag a weak frontal boundary or a weak axis of convergence that will hover across the Ohio River Valley. This area of convergence could spark off some scattered showers and drizzle across the area. Highs across the area should remain right around 50° thanks to winds out of the WNW and extensive cloud cover.

Below: IDV Surface Temperatures & Winds 11-02-18 18z

Slight chance of showers will remain around the area heading into Friday night with lows dropping to around 40°. Temperatures for the first half of the weekend on Saturday will rebound thanks to a weak area of high pressure building in from the west. High temperatures on Saturday should top out around 60°.

Forecast

Thursday night: Slight chance of rain mainly before midnight with a low of 44°. West wind at 10 to 15 mph.

Friday: Slight chance of showers with some scattered drizzle. Cloudy, high temperature topping out around 51°. Northwest wind at 5-10 mph.

Friday Night: Slight chance of showers before midnight. Cloudy, low temperature of 40°. Light and variable winds.

Saturday: Mostly sunny skies, with a high of 62°. Winds out of the south at around 5 mph.

 

 

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Halloween Rain Scare

Happy Halloween!!

Thankfully, treat-or-treating is a go for much of the Bowling Green area and beyond!  The focus of the heavy rain shifts further towards our north and west, as bands have already been moving through that area over the past few hours.  I even managed to snag a few photos of a shelf cloud moving through parts of Kentucky that were peaking with fall colors earlier:

But what does this next system have in store for us?

The WPC keeps us near the edge of a slight risk for excessive rainfall.  The rain bands that move through will be quite narrow, meaning the heavy rain stays over a relatively small area.  Latest models are beginning to hint at Bowling Green missing the brunt of it by miles:

That doesn’t, however, mean we won’t see a good bit of rain through tonight and tomorrow as this other model run illustrates:

With that in mind, keep those rain jackets on hand- especially tomorrow.  The system should clear out by tomorrow evening, leaving only some small lingering showers Friday and into your weekend.

Tonight: Breezy, rain showers.  Low of 63

Tomorrow:  High of 67, shower and storms.

Tomorrow night: Low of 45, showers clearing

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Fall Is That You?! Or Halloween Rain Chances?

Good afternoon WKU!

Today’s weather is one that will make your plans enjoyable if you’re going outdoors. Although, if your looking for Halloween’s weather to be like this one, then I can’t make any promises. However, I can say that heavier rain will hold off until Thursday morning. Halloween evening will most likely conclude with light rain showers.

Tuesday morning started off slightly cool with a morning low of 38°F. However, a nice warm gradient throughout the day makes our weather pleasant. Currently temperatures are 69°F in Bowling Green, Ky and mostly sunny skies. Thanks to our fair weather maker, a high pressure associated with an upper level ridge creates clear skies and mild temperatures for Tuesday. Model Output Statistics (MOS), a tactic for interpreting numerical model data output shows a slight variation in temperatures. GFS mod. guidance is more accurate than the NAM, focusing on the highs being predicted to reach up to 75°F. Due to some windy conditions though, highs will reach to about 72°F.

Temperatures for TUES will be above average because of a slight heat index from an oncoming warm front from the MS Valley. Winds up to 20 mph from the south keeps conditions a little drafty but pleasant compared to a northern breeze. A build-up of moisture and as a result, instability will cause warmer dew points and more fall-like weather. Is this beautiful weather bound to continue??? How will Halloween be???

1500Z Surface Analysis (11:30am) showing the weather features for a small-scale observation of 12 hours. Observe how due to the warm front in the SW temps were already in the upper 60’s and low 70’s in parts of the South. As the new trough swoops through the Great Plains associated with a low pressure system we will start seeing clouds and rain chances for Wednesday.

Halloween, is set to be mild like Buffalo wings as well, effectively from that warm front to our SW. Even with scattered clouds increasing to overcasting skies by the late afternoon, temperatures will be sure to surpass 70°F for the maximum temperature. Depending on the amount of cloud cover during the day, WKU could reach middle-values due to humidity. Dew points are to be in the low tier of 60°F making the weather a bit more muggy. Wind shear from our south will push northeast-ward into the Mid-South, associated with that moisture factor, but will oppressively battle with a cold sector in the Midwest.

Additionally, this format brings in the scenario of conveyor belts towards which the warm air lifting parallel ahead of the cold front that is moving at a more rapid pace. In fact, a warm conveyor belt will bring in light rain for Halloween evening. Don’t be surprised to hear a rumble of thunder due to the amount of instability and the approaching of the cold-sector. As the moisture from the south counteracts the cold front, heavier rain chances will be possible for Thursday morning into the afternoon. OH BOY!

TUESDAY:

72°F/38°F; Mostly sunny but clouds will be few in number as the day concludes. Winds pick up to about 20 mph throughout the day (SSW). Beautiful weather maker today so go enjoy it!!!

WEDNSDAY:

74°F/60°F; Scattered clouds progressively into overcast skies by late PM. Lght rain chances 30% during the day but increase to 60% in the evening, accumulation estimated to be trace (0.01″). A thunderstorm possible (30%) around 1-4pm.

THURSDAY:

65°F/56°F; Cloudy skies and chances for heavy rain in the morning and afternoon hours (>70% chance). Rain values will vary but will be abundant for after 10am (1.0″<rain<2.0″). BE SURE TO GRAB AN UMBRELLA!

 

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What a way to start off the week!

After a week of pomping, midterms, difficult homework assignments, cheering on the Tops, and a lot of costume and candy shopping, the end of the Homecoming activities was welcomed with open arms. Just to put it into perspective, many WKU students slept most of Sunday away, with reports of students sleeping for 16 hours straight! And if that rest wasn’t enough to get people ready for another work/school week, maybe today’s magnificent Monday weather put smiles on their faces. But one day just isn’t enough, so let’s see what the next few days will bring us.

Tuesday will be nice and warm with mostly clear skies. Highs will be in the mid 70’s. This is the perfect type of day to shed the sweatshirt and start raking those big, orange leaves from the maple trees that are prevalent throughout Bowling Green. If you’re a student, it will be a great day to Eno under the cherry trees or play a little ultimate frisbee on South Lawn. Just don’t miss out on tomorrow’s great conditions because they will change quickly as Wednesday rolls around.

Yes, Halloween Wednesday will be a little less spooky and a little more soggy. As the kiddos (or 20 year olds) head out to trick-or-treat, rain will be moving in ahead of a cold front.  While the front itself will pass through around noon Thursday, the rain chances will begin around dinnertime on Halloween. With the wet weather in mind, make sure to adjust your plans accordingly.

Depiction of rainfall from Wednesday into Thursday from the 0Z NAM – Courtesy Pivotal Weather.

0Z GFS showing center of low pressure system moving directly over South Central KY. Temp and wind change mid-afternoon Thursday. – Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

Southerly flow will keep our temps in the 60’s all night long Wednesday into Thursday, so our high temperature Thursday will actually come during the morning hours just before the front passes through. As the front moves off to the East, temperatures will drop into the 40’s by mid-afternoon and stay there for the rest of the day. The umbrella will be a necessity Thursday since this will be an all-day rain event.

When all is said and done by Friday, portions of South Central Kentucky could see total rainfall amounts of a couple inches or more.

Tuesday: high of 74, mostly clear skies. Enjoy it while you can!

Wednesday: high of 70, rain starting during the evening hours and continuing throughout the night.

Thursday: Continuous moderate rainfall, high of 64 around midnight with temps dropping into the low 40’s throughout the day. Winds shifting from South to North by the end of the day.

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