Clear and Comfortable Weekend

For our early morning, we see patches of fog return, so if you intend to commute, do so carefully. The culprit for such fog is the cold front that is passing by this morning as well, causing temperatures to fall low enough to match the dew points.

10Z Surface Map (Source: College of DuPage)

A smooth ridge like the one below allows for calm weather conditions. Such allows for strong high pressure areas as you see on the map above. With this in mind…

11Z 300mb heights, winds, divergence (Source: Storm Prediction Center)

Expect nothing more than a sunny day for your Saturday. Today will only get as high as the low 70’s. As we head into game night, temperatures will be in the low 60’s to the upper 50’s as we head towards the end of the game. If you plan on attending, wear longer sleeved clothing and bring a light jacket to keep yourself warm.

09Z RAP SFC Temperatures (Source: College of DuPage)

The same conditions seen today will persist as we conclude our weekend Sunday, with high’s into the upper 70’s, and the lows in the lower to mid 60’s; however, there exists a possibility of rain as we start the next week. Monday afternoon shows a possibility for showers, and as Monday evening, starts, a possibility for rain.

06Z GFS Preciptation Map (Source: College of DuPage)

Summary:

Saturday: Morning fog with an otherwise sunny day; High: 71, Low: 59

Sunday: Nice and sunny; High: 77, Low: 66

Monday: 50% chance of rain, High: 79, Low: 68

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Fall Like Temperatures!

Greetings!

Friday is starting to be a chilly foggy morning with temperatures in the mid 50s with a layer of dense fog. This fog is caused by the high pressure bringing cooler temperatures over the saturated ground. The fog will clear out in a couple hours and will lead to a mostly sunny day!

The cold front over a portion of the Mid-West will come south closer to our area. The cold front will lead to more fall temperatures and the potential for another foggy night/morning.

The high today looks to be around the low to mid 70s in central Kentucky with dew points in the mid 50s which will feel great! This is the fall temperatures you hear that people want on social media, maybe a little lower in the high, but this will still feel great.

This weekend is looking to be a beautiful weekend with a slight warm up to the 80s on Sunday. Models are indicating for system to push through at the beginning of next week.

As of right not, it is showing that the rain moves in around Monday afternoon and leaving Tuesday night. It should not be a system that goes non-stop through that time window, there will be breaks.

Summary:

Friday : 74/52

Saturday: 76/55

Sunday: 82/66

Monday:79/68  with a chance of rain.

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Sunshine and Blue Skies are on the Way

Good afternoon folks!!

This wet and gloomy pattern will make its way out of the area as we head into the weekend, but first, the rainy conditions will make its presence known for the rest of today. The rest of your Thursday consists of off-and-on rain showers as a stationary boundary positioned over the Tennessee River Valley continues to shift off towards the southeast. Strong upper level winds combining with a southwesterly flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere will provide enough forcing to enhance shower coverage across southern Kentucky. Extensive cloud cover will keep temperatures down across the region with highs topping out in the low to middle 60s.

Below: Frontal Analysis 18Z Wed 26 2018

Drier air will make its way into the region tonight as high pressure pushes in from the west. Temperatures through the night will drop into the low to middle 50s. Dew point values in the low to middle 50s will pose a threat for some fog in the early morning hours, especially in the low lying areas.

Below: NWS Tips For Driving in Patchy Fog

Fog will lift by 10:00 A.M. Friday morning and give way to sunny skies. An area of high pressure will dominate the region during the day on Friday, this will be the trend heading into the weekend. Friday looks spectacular with mostly sunny skies and autumn-like temperatures. High temperatures will rebound peaking in the middle 70s. Friday night temperatures will drop into the lower 50s, don’t be surprised if a few areas drop into the upper 40s.

Below: 2 m AGL Temperatures 21Z Fri 201-09-28

Forecast

Thursday: Cloudy skies with scattered showers, highs topping out in the middle 60s, winds out of the north at 7-10mph

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with fog developing in the early morning hours, lows in the lower 50s with calm winds

Friday: Mostly sunny skies with highs topping out in the middle 70s, light winds out of the north

Have a GREAT day!!

 

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Happy Frontal Passage Day!

What a relief!  Thanks to a cold front approaching from the west, today will be cooler and much less humid than the past few weeks have been.  Fall is here!

In Bowling Green, we’ve likely already had our high temperature for the day- 72 degrees!  Over the next few hours, the temperature will actually drop further with passage of the cold front.  Using the 16Z HRRR model above, we can see dewpoints originally in the lower 70s earlier today drop dramatically to the mid 50s bringing us drier, less humid air.  Perfect windows-down weather is on tap for later this afternoon.

Will it last?

Thankfully, much of this week should be relatively cool.  The next few days ahead as well as into the weekend look to be beautiful days with cool temperatures and finally a break from the constant rain we have had over the past few days.  However, we could see the heat return at times in the coming weeks.  The 06Z GFS (shown above) paints a picture of a disruptive weather pattern as the jet stream fluctuates over the United States, giving us an idea that with the changing of the season the next few weeks could be quite the show.

 

Today: High of 72, Low of 67.  Scattered showers until the cold front passes!

Tomorrow: High of 68, Low of 59.  Overcast, very small chance of isolated showers.

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Risk for Rain and Severe Wx

Tuesday takes on another gloomy day, although less rainfall than yesterday. Monday contributed to a little over an inch of rain in Bowling Green, Ky. (1.11″ according to NWS Louisville Climate Report) causing some risks for flooding. Thankfully, today hasn’t had any rain in the bucket so far for Warren County but not so much the case for further western portions of the state (Paducah). Temperatures in BG began in the low 70’s across the region but have gradually overcome the 80 degree mark this afternoon. After a slight clearing, weather conditions are once again relatively humid this afternoon. With rapid winds coming out of the Gulf, these winds moving up to 20 mph are inclusive to creating a more humid atmosphere. After a rain-less morning, this additional moisture will slowly increase cloud coverage into this evening. As a result, rain will be likely this evening, a 50% chance with a 10% chance of a thunderstorm.

Flash Flooding will be of a concern heading into the evening as those dew point temperatures will keep the hopes alive for receiving rain. These storms could be severe in some areas particularly in the western portion of Ky. If the atmosphere can contain enough instability before Wednesday’s cold front, then there could be some severe weather to reckon with.

Wednesday, is set to unveil a new trend of the model guidance data that has been prevalent to mention. A predominant cold front that is set to hit the Mid South region later on this week. This frontal boundary will bring cooler “fall-like” temperatures with low temperatures in the mid 50’s! Drier air and higher altitude of heights for the middle-to-end of your week creates a seasonal atmosphere. Just in time for October! But with that boundary beholds some observation of severe weather stretching along the Ohio Valley. This severe weather outlook keeps Bowling Green in tact, so much as to say that there will be a chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening hours.

Here’s my forecast…

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy skies with a southerly wind making the day rather gloomy, and windy. An increase in clouds due to rapid speed of winds makes the atmosphere at a slight risk for rain and severe weather later in the day. High temp in the low 80’s and a low temp in the upper 60’s.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with a medium risk for rain showers (50%) that will attribute to less than a quarter of an inch if any. A small risk for thunderstorms as well with moisture becoming heavier in the atmosphere and a distinctive change in wind direction.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with temperatures reaching a morning low temperature of 72 degrees. With the contribution of the cold front, low temps looking to get into the low to mid-50’s. Ah!

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Is There a Stop Button for Rain?

Today is one of those curl up in a big blanket and read a book kind of days. It has been raining since most of us woke up and will continue to rain until most of us hit the hay. And it won’t stop there: both Tuesday and Wednesday display high chances for rain. However, there will be a distinct difference in how the rain occurs. Today’s rain has been a constant drizzle to moderate rain, while Tuesday’s rain showers will be more sporadic with a low chance of a few severe storms. Wednesday’s rain will come during the first half of the day ahead of a cold front; therefore, we’ll see some big changes in the second half of the week compared to the first half. The passing of the cold front will be our “stop button” to the rain. But before we see those changes, it’s worth noting that the recent and future rainfall amounts have prompted flash flood watches from National Weather service in Louisville for a majority of Kentucky, including Warren County. The flash flood watch for our area will continue until Wednesday at 1 pm. If you ever come across a road covered by water, ALWAYS turn around, don’t drown. The possibility for water to cover up a washed away section of the road or its ability to carry your car off the road always exists.

The following GIF shows the change from a very moist air mass (the purples and fuchsia) to a dry air mass (the browns and greens) after the cold front passes.

GFS PWATs from Tuesday morning to Friday morning- Courtesy of Pivotal Weather.

 

Temps will drastically cool off Wednesday evening and stay cool for Thursday and Friday.

GFS temperatures for Wednesday (1 am CST) through Friday (1 pm CST)

 

Today: Rain will continue with overcast skies keeping temps throughout South Central Kentucky at or below 75.

Tomorrow: Rain chances continue, but will be more sporadic. If cloud cover decreases, as some models indicate, the potential for severe weather will increase as the sun provides more energy for potential storms. Temperatures will also vary based on the amount of sunshine received. Places receiving  lots of sun could see low 80s, while cloudy areas will stay in the mid 70s.

Wednesday: Rainy and windy conditions will end just after the noon hour as will the flash flood watch. Once the rain ends, temperatures will quickly drop from the mid 70s to the low 60s with the passage of the cold front. Overnight into Thursday, lows will bottom out into the 50s.

The cold front will provide low dew points, and skies will be clearing Thursday through the weekend. This will create the prime conditions for cool nights and pleasantly warm days. For those of you in Bowling Green for the weekend, come on out to WKU and enjoy all the festivities of “Parents’ Weekend” and the following football game against Marshall at the Houch!

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Fall Has Officially Begun!

As we approached the autumn equinox conditions improved tremendously to fit with the incoming season. While Friday saw some strong storms with high winds, conditions cooled and calmed to gentle rain for Saturday, today, and will continue through until Thursday.

Photos taken by author as storms approached Friday

NOAA radar showing continuing rain

Looking at the GFS model the air will be muggy but with the cooler temperatures and increasing winds, it should not make for uncomfortable days. The increased winds will reach up to  30 knots or about 35 MPH on Tuesday. This will be fairly strong so watch out for your hat!

 

GFS wind conditions through Tuesday night

Thankfully the highest we’ll see temperatures hit between today and Wednesday morning will be 81. Today will stay in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Temperatures through Tuesday night

SUMMARY:

Sunday will see a high of 71 and a low of 69 with periodic rain showers throughout the day and night.

Monday will reach a high of 75 and a low of 68 with rains continuing off and on throughout the day and night.

Tuesday’s high will be 81 and have a low of 69 and again rains will continue throughout the day and night.

Note: With as  much rain as we are seeing, there is a strong chance of flash flooding. Please be careful and remember:

 

 

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Off to a Wet Start on the Autumnal Equinox

Surface Map 10Z (Source: College of DuPage)

It is the first day of autumn, where the world gets an equal amount of sunlight, and with the recent passing of the cold front, it is going to feel like it, too. However, rain isn’t out of the question despite such. A strong cyclonic system within Texas will push in more instances of precipitation to start our morning, and wet conditions will continue into our afternoon, and into our evening.

13Z GOES-16 Satellite Image (Source: College of DuPage)

12Z HRRR Reflectivity (Source: College of DuPage)

The map above suggests that it will rain all day. With this in mind, expect wet conditions over a long period; any time you need to go out, be sure you bring an umbrella or a rain jacket to keep you dry.  With the recently passed cold front and the rain, temperatures won’t get really high; expect temperatures that can get up to the low 70’s and upper 60’s.

21Z SFC Temperature (Source: College of DuPage)

Summary:

Saturday: 90% chance of rain throughout the day and into the evening; High: 73, Low: 65

Sunday: 60% chance of showers, otherwise cloudy; High: 71, Low: 63

Monday: 60% chance of rain; High: 77, Low: 67

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Evidence of a Cooler Trend

Greetings!

On Friday, 9/21, the weather will start out warm and muggy with the high pressure over North and South Carolina swinging gulf moisture into our area. This moisture is colliding with the cold front currently north-east of Kentucky and is kicking off storms in portions of the Midwest.

That cold front is set to arrive in Kentucky in the late afternoon into the evening hours. The HRRR is showing storms reaching western Kentucky around 17z, 12 pm central time. But not reaching central Kentucky till around 20z, 3 pm. There are some trends in different molds showing the system weakening and then strengthening again once it reaches lower Ohio valley.

(Disclaimer: models are used to get an understanding as to what might happen, not this is going to happen right then.)

13

This looks to be the start of a wet weekend. There are some indications showing that our area will be hit with a couple rounds of rain and storms through-out the weekend into the beginning of next week.

This will bring cooler temperatures into Kentucky behind that cold front.

The high today will be around low 90s with the high of Saturday being around the low 70s. As of right now it looks to stay around low to mid 70s for the majority of next week with a little warm up around Monday and Tuesday then back into the 70s.

In summary:

Friday: 90/66

Saturday: 70/64

Sunday:74/67

With chances of rain all weekend, starting Friday late afternoon.

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Rain and Cooler Temperatures on the Horizon

Good Afternoon!

It has been quite a toasty one out there today thanks to a upper level ridge centered over the Tennessee River Valley, but an active weather pattern and cooler temperatures are on the horizon. High temperatures for today will top out around 94° with a heat index right around the century mark, 100°. Skies will be mostly clear for the rest of the day with the exception of a few scattered clouds. Tonight will be on the warmer side with lows hovering in the lower 70s with mostly clear skies.

Below: 20Z Thu 2018-09-20 HRRR 2m Temp (°F)/ 10m Wind (Kts)

Tomorrow will be very similar to today, except for increasing cloud cover later on in the day thanks to a strong area of low pressure over the northern Great Lakes and eventually moving into the Canadian Province of Ontario tomorrow. The area of low pressure will drive a cold front southeast into the Ohio River Valley. With a lot of moisture and instability in place ahead of the cold front, shower and thunderstorm chances are not out of the question later in the day as the cold front approaches the area. Temperatures tomorrow  will top out around 90° with increasing cloud cover and scattered showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger into the overnight hours with a low around 67°.

Below: 21Z Fri 2018-09-21 NAM 2m AGL Temperature (°F)

Rain chances stick around for the first half of the weekend on Saturday. A weak shortwave across the southern Great Plains will exit and make its way across southern Kentucky and northern Tennessee. Temperatures on Saturday will be cooler with highs across Warren County topping out in the middle 70s.

Below: 18Z Sat 2018-09-22 NAM Surface Temperature Anomaly (°F)

Forecast:

Tonight: Mostly clear skies, with a low of 71°. Calm winds out of the south.

Friday: Mostly clear skies throughout the morning into the early afternoon with increase in cloud cover with scattered showers in thunderstorms, high of 90°. Winds out of the southwest at 5-10 mph with gusts reaching 20 mph.

Friday night: Showers and thunderstorms are likely with cloudy skies, low of 67°. Calm winds out of the north.

Saturday: Chance of showers and thunderstorm with cloudy skies, high of 75°. Winds out of the northeast at 5-10 mph.

 

 

 

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