Cooler Temperatures On Their Way

WPC 10-12-16 Forecast Map

WPC 10-12-16 Forecast Map

With a low pressure system just north of Texas that is driving a cold front into our region Wednesday evening into Thursday, we can expect chances of rain and thunderstorms.

The polar jet is starting to creep into the far northern parts of the country with the subtropical jet still over the southern part. This is going to create interesting weather, similar to what we saw in the spring when this same event occurred, just in reverse.

The surface low will continue moving southeast while pulling the cold front through Kentucky. This is what will bring rain. The aftermath will feature cooler temperatures as high pressure sets in. The cooler temperatures are not expected to stay very long.

Tonight: A bit warmer than this morning, 56 degrees. Partly cloudy with rain chances into the early morning hours.

Tomorrow: 20% chance of rain, primarily in the morning with a high of 67. Cooler temperatures as that cold front passes through.

I will be back Friday to discuss what happened and your weekend forecast.

Thanks for reading!

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Hurricane Matthew Aftermath and Bowling Green Forecast

Before I start my forecast for Bowling Green, KY I want to talk a bit on Hurricane Matthew. I know that the other blog posters have talked to great detail on Hurricane so I won’t go too in depth.

Hurricane Matthew was a devastating hurricane that reached Category 5 strength. This means the wind reached at least 157 mph sustained, categorized by the Saffir-Simpson Scale. This hurricane has sadly caused the deaths of over a thousand people along thousands of others being left  without food, water, or shelter. The most devastation has been seen in Haiti, who obtained the bulk of the deaths and damage to homes. The Hurricane was at it’s strongest through the Carribbean Sea. My thoughts are with the people most effected.

WPC Map 10/10/16

Bowling Green has been and is currently seated in a center of high pressure. Keeping skies clear and temperatures warm. The past week has been unseasonably warm for October. Not until Sunday did the temperatures cool to what is typically expected.

With showers and thunderstorms to our west Bowling Green is going to see more beautiful weather over the next few days. Thursday a low pressure system is expected to pass through and may bring rain chances, I’ll talk more on that Wednesday.

As for my forecast

Today and Tonight: More sunny skies with a high of 74 degrees. Tonight will cool down, much like this morning. Partly cloudy with a low of 50 degrees.

Tomorrow:Sunny skies once more, with a high of 76. Wind from our southwest will provide warmer temperatures. Tomorrow’s low is again 50 degrees. So tomorrow morning for your commute, I would recommend a light jacket.

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Records Set by Hurricane Matthew

As of today, Hurricane Matthew continues to move along the east coast. It has weakened significantly since its brief peak as category 5 on Sept 30th, and as of today sits as a category 2 hurricane. However, over the past few days Hurricane Matthew was able to break some notable hurricane records.

Category 5 Records
Hurricane Matthew was declared a category 5 hurricane on September 30th, breaking two records as a category 5 before weakening back down to a category 4 and making landfall in Haiti:

  • Matthew became the first category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin in 9 years, with the last being Hurricane Felix in 1995.
  • Matthew became the southernmost category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic Basin, beating out Hurricane Ivan, the previous record holder.

Longest-Lived Records

  • Hurricane Matthew is the longest-lived Category 4-5 hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean with 84+ hours. The last record holder was Hurricane Ivan in 2004 with 66 hours.
  • Hurricane Matthew is the longest-lived Category 4-5 hurricane for the entire month of October.
  • Hurricane Matthew is the longest-lived major hurricane(category 3 or higher) in the Atlantic Basin that formed after September 25th, with six and a half days.

Landfall in Haiti Record

  • Hurricane Matthew made landfall in Haiti at 6 am CDT, which was the first Category 4 hurricane to make landfall in the country in 52 years.

Major Hurricane Landfall Drought Continues
The current major hurricane drought record goes unbroken after Matthew. A category 3 or higher hurricane, known as a major hurricane, has not made landfall in the United States since 2005. While the US has seen many notable hurricanes since, such as Hurricane Sandy and Hurricane Ike, none have been over a category 3 while making landfall. There was a chance Hurricane Matthew was about to break this 10 year major hurricane drought.  However, Matthew never made landfall along Florida while it was a category 3 or higher. Instead, the storm went parallel along the Florida shoreline.  With the storm now at a category 2 and continuing to weaken, any landfall from here on out won’t be considered a major hurricane landfall. Thus, the record remains unbroken, and the major hurricane landfall drought continues.

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Hurricane Matthew and Tropical Storm Nicole

After pushing over Haiti and along the eastern coast of Florida, Hurricane Matthew continues to push up the east coast as it weakens. 214531w5_nl_sm

As it can be seen above, the NHC is expecting Hurricane Matthew to weaken into a tropical storm by Sunday 2pm, and affect areas no further north than North Carolina. By Sunday, the storm is expected to turn back out into the Atlantic and head south toward the Bahamas as a tropical storm.

An satellite view of Matthew taken from GOES-East on Oct 7th, 1:30 pm CDT: 
latest_9

This satellite imagery not only shows the impressive scale of Hurricane Matthew, but also shows Tropical Storm Nicole developing in the Atlantic off to the southeast of Hurricane Matthew. According to the NHC, Nicole is not expected to head any further west and instead head north toward Bermuda.

The forecast for Tropical Storm Nicole from the NHC:
203541w5_nl_sm

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Cooler Weekend Ahead

The warm trend of this past week will be coming to an end with a cold front pushing through the Bowling Green area, making for a cooler weekend and a cooler start to next week. Interestingly, this fairly strong cold front moving into the area will not be bringing any precipitation along with it. Thus, the skies will remain clear or mostly clear throughout the weekend and even into early next week. After the cold front pushes through the area, we will be met with a large region of high pressure that will keep the skies clear and the temperature stable throughout the weekend.

noaa

Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53. North wind 3 to 8 mph. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.

Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 71. North wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

Saturday Night
Clear, with a low around 47. North wind 3 to 6 mph.

Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 70. Northeast wind 3 to 8 mph.

Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 48. Light northeast wind.

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Hurricane Matthew

What was Tropical Storm Matthew just a little over a day ago is now a strong Category 4 Hurricane Matthew with maximum sustained winds at 150 mph and central pressure at 945 mb. This is one of the most impressive systems in the Caribbean Sea in several years now, and the strongest since Hurricane Omar in 2008.

Here are some of the latest forecasts and graphics from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):

Current Atlatnic Synopsis - Courtesy NHC

Current Atlantic Synopsis – Courtesy NHC

Hurricane Matthew position and 5-day forecast cone - Courtesy NHC

Hurricane Matthew position and 5-day forecast cone – Courtesy NHC

As you can see above, Hurricane watches have been posted for Jamaica where a possible landfall may occur on the eastern portions of the island Monday afternoon. From their its forecast to continue northward across Cuba and into the Bahamas.

Satellite imagery is looking impressive:

GOES-E infrared imagery - Courtesy of NASA MSFC Earth Science Office

GOES-E infrared imagery – Courtesy of NASA MSFC Earth Science Office

Its worth taking note that Florida will be at risk as well as any jog westward in trajectory will cause worsening weather conditions for areas along the east coast.

Below is a graphic depicting wind speed probabilities of as least 74 mph.

Hurricane-force wind speed probabilities over the next 120 hours - Courtesy NHC

Hurricane-force wind speed probabilities over the next 120 hours – Courtesy NHC

Hurricane Matthew will continue to be monitored by the NHC in the coming days and will be the talk of the meteorological community as well.

Meanwhile, we continue to deal with the upper-level low (ULL) over the Ohio Valley , but its expected to start drift NE out of our area in the next couple of days. Warmer temperatures and lower precipitation chances are more likely as a result.

Also, stay tuned to the High Plains on Tuesday as severe weather is expected there. A negatively tilted trough is approaching from the Pacific Northwest and is going to set-up an atmosphere capable of severe convective weather as a result.

Nonetheless, stay tuned as interesting weather in the mid-latitudes cranks up!

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Upper-level Low Persists Over Ohio Valley

Our first shot of fall-like weather came with a trough axis just a few days ago. Guidance at that time suggested this trough would detach from the polar jet stream, and it certainly did so. Dynamics have now led to a deepening upper-level low (ULL) pressure system which has now moved in from the Great Lakes region and is settling over the Ohio Valley. It will be persistent and stick around for the next several days, and will be dictating our weather conditions as a result.

Take a look at 500 hPa winds and vorticity below, its clear to see the ULL spinning over the Ohio Valley and how its become cut-off from the jet stream well to the north now. (Clickable images courtesy of CoD Meteorology website):

NAMUS_500_avort_018

NAM 500 hPa Absolute Vorticity and Heights valid for 12 Z Thursday

NAMUS_500_spd_018

NAM 500 hPa Wind Speed and Heights valid for 12 Z Thursday

The forcing provided by the vorticity in this ULL will help to trigger scattered showers during the afternoon and evening hours over the next few days with the help of daytime lower-boundary layer destabilization and steep lapse rates up through the mid-levels.

Expect fog in the morning in some low-lying areas before giving way to clear skies in the mornings. Once heating takes place be prepared to bust out the umbrella if necessary!

For Thursday: we should see temperatures topping out in the upper 60’s and near 70 in some places. Afternoon scattered showers are a likely bet. Lows into upper 40’s and near 50 in some areas.

For Friday/Weekend: Gradual warming into the mid and upper 70’s closer to the weekend as the ULL eventually starts to weaken a bit and retreat to the north. Guidance suggests it will be into next week before any warmer weather may start to creep back into our area. Scattered afternoon showers still remain possible.

Seen below is the GFS suggesting the weaker ULL eventually meandering off to the NE:

GFS 500 hPa Wind Speeds and Heights for 12 Z Sunday.

GFS 500 hPa Wind Speeds and Heights for 12 Z Sunday.

Other relative weather news includes Tropical Storm Matthew which has recently formed east of the Lesser Antilles. This particular storm seems more organized and is forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to become a Hurricane by Friday afternoon.

Current Atlantic Basin tropical weather situation & water vapor imagery. Courtesy NHC

Current Atlantic  tropical weather situation & water vapor imagery. (Courtesy NHC)

Forecasts from the NHC have Matthew making a rather sharp turn to the north and possibly affecting the Jamaica & Cuba regions by the start of the next work week. This system will continue to be monitored and tracked with satellite and aircraft reconnaissance in the coming days.

Current forecast cone from NHC

Current forecast cone for Tropical Storm Matthew from the NHC.

Overall, more active weather has arrived for us here in the Bowling Green area and for the entire state of Kentucky as well. Cool temperatures were bound to happen eventually!

A Friday post will address the changing weather scenario for us here as we expect warming conditions to eventually move back into our picture, as well as bring updates to the tropical activity (Matthew).

#WKUWeather #WKUMeteorology

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Fall Cool Down is Here

Currently: Ridging has been persistent over the eastern portion of the contiguous US for quite some time now with little variations in the jet stream pattern as a whole. As a result, heat and high humidity have been seemingly relentless over the past several weeks across the Ohio Valley. However, this trend is starting to break down, as we would typically expect this time of year as we now have more nighttime than daytime hours in the Northern Hemisphere. Resultantly, the thermal distribution begins to shift southward towards the equator, and the jet stream responds accordingly with a similar shift south with more prominent Rossby wave activity.

Nonetheless, lets look at our setup for this upcoming week. These are images of good news for us as relief from the persistent heat is arriving:

500 hPa wind speeds and isoheights indicate ridge over Ohio Valley at 00 Z Monday

500 hPa wind speeds and isoheights indicate a ridge over Ohio Valley at 00 Z Monday

NAMUS_sfc_thetae_012

Surface Theta-E and 10 m wind vectors show clear boundary between warm/humid airmass and cooler/dryer airmass to NW at 00 Z Monday

Monday: With approaching cold front to the NW late Sunday, it is expected to arrive in the overnight hours and morning commute time period of Monday the 26th. This is particularly good news as daytime highs will dip into the low 70’s for Bowling Green and the surrounding region, rather than the lower 90’s as we’ve been experiencing lately. Light rain is possible with the passage of the front as well but should taper off throughout the day.

Trough axis and NWerly winds at 500 hPa will usher in relief for days to come. Image Valid for 00 Z Tuseday.

Trough axis and WNW winds at 500 hPa will usher in relief for days to come. Image valid for 00 Z Tuesday.

This week: Guidance suggests this cooler/dryer airmass will stick around for awhile with daily high temps expected to stay in the 70’s throughout the upcoming week. This is likely as it appears the upper-level low is expected to detach from the primary branch of the polar jet and allow for NW winds in the upper levels to dominate our stable and dryer weather pattern for the days to come.

In short, expect fair skies with highs in the low to mid 70’s for the week. Lows near 50 every night and similar dewpoints throughout the week in the low 50’s. Oh so nice! Seasonal fall weather is here and we all hope it stays for awhile!

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Gameday is Going To Be Hot!

Hey everyone, as the week nears the end, the upper level trend of dominate ridging is phasing out. Temperatures are expected to stay in the low 90s dipping to the mid 60s at night through Sunday. The high temperature for Bowling Green today was 90 degrees according to the Kentucky Mesonet.

500Mb Geopotential Height Shown to Visualize Ridging over Kentucky (College of DuPage)

500Mb Geopotential Heights Shown to Visualize Ridging over Kentucky (College of DuPage)

Forecast for Weekend:

Tonight: Expect Clear skies and a low around 65 degrees.

Saturday: Sunny and hot with the high temperature around 92 degrees.

Saturday Night: Clear skies low temperature about 64 degrees.

Sunday: Sunny and hot with the high temperature around 91 degrees.

Sunday Night: Clear skies with the low temperature around 63 degrees

Saturday is game day on the hill, enjoy the clear and warm weekend everyone and Let’s Go Hilltoppers!

-Andrew

 

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Warm Start to Fall Season

Good Afternoon! As the summer comes to an end today, and the change officially to the autumn season begins tomorrow Thursday, September 22, the warm temperatures continue. A dominating upper level ridge continues to stall over the Mid-South region and Ohio Valley allowing the continuation of high temperatures and clear skies.

 

Surface Pressure Map of United States (WPC)

Surface Pressure Map of United States (WPC)

Today’s maximum temperature was recorded at 89 degrees Fahrenheit.

Maximum Temperatures Recorded by Kentucky Mesonet Stations (KYMesonet.org)

Maximum Temperatures Recorded by Kentucky Mesonet Stations (KYMesonet.org)

Here is the outlook for the remainder of the work week:

Tonight: Clear skies low temperature around 64 degrees, light winds.

Thursday: Sunny and warm with a maximum temperature of 90 degrees.

Thursday Night: Clear with a low temperature around 65 degrees with light winds.

Friday: Sunny with a high temperature of 90 degrees.

Friday Night: Clear skies again with light variable winds, low temperature around 65 degrees.

Enjoy the warm sunny days everyone, I will be back Friday with an weekend outlook as the WKU Hilltoppers take on the Vanderbilt Commadors this Saturday at L.T. Smith Stadium!

-Andrew

 

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