Looking at the 15z run of the RUC model, the severe weather threat for today seems almost non-existent. An already rain-cooled air mass will not receive any extra convective energy from the sun as cloud cover will be extensive throughout the day. This will put an end to any significant threat for the Bowling Green area and state of Kentucky.
Clouds will stop any real severe threat today
Despite the absence of a meaningful severe weather threat today, heavy rains are still probable across much of the state. The latest 500 mb analysis puts the rain-shield sitting across the region continuing its movement toward the northeast.
Storms will continue to swing around the trough axis toward the northeast, placing most of KY under the heavy rains for the remainder of the day
PWAT values are very high and could mean that very high amounts of rain will fall before the night is over. By tomorrow morning, SREF guidance suggests that close to 1 inch of rain will fall. Bowling Green has already recorded 0.3 inches at the mesonet station, so the SREF forecast of around 0.85 inches by tomorrow morning is not completely out of the question.
Very high precipitable water amounts will lead to very heavy precipitation today and into tomorrow.
Damaging winds may still be possible today and this evening, as bulk shear values still range between 40 and 60 knots. Some momentum transfer is possible, but winds are not expected to meet severe criteria.
Shear values could indicate some strong winds later tonight.
