Wet Weather Moving In

While we are dry for now, showers have already pushed into Western KY and will continue moving eastward throughout the day. This first broken line of showers will arrive in BG in the next few hours. The majority of these showers will be light in nature and become more scattered as they approach Warren and the surrounding counties. The evening looks dry, but heavier rain showers will move in overnight. Despite the warm push of air from the south, dense cloud cover will keep us right around 60 today.

Friday will start off wet, but we should dry out for the evening hours. Models indicate that we could see rain totals of 1-1.5″ once all is said and done. Morning lows will be quite warm, only dropping into the upper 40s. They won’t move much throughout the day with highs hovering in the low 50s.

Saturday will be cool and start off rainy much like Friday, but the rain will be lighter in nature. Highs will once again hover around 50 and skies will be cloudy throughout the day.

Sunday will be the dry day over the weekend and skies will clear out early to make for a nice day. Temperatures will start off in the mid 30s and rise to the mid 50s. After the cool weekend, things will warm up closer to 60 for the first couple days next week.

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Early Travel Forecast

We are a week out from one of the biggest travel holidays of the year! Whether you are flying across the country or driving across the county, weather can have a major impact on your travel plans. Here’s a quick look at what we are expecting for KY and TN next week.

After a fairly mild day Tuesday, a cold front will be moving across the Commonwealth of KY and the TN Valley bringing with it a line of showers on Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures will be in the upper 40s throughout both states on Wednesday with morning lows dipping below freezing on Thursday. Thanksgiving day will be cold just like the previous day and even a little breezy at times with periods of rain. If your family is taking any photos to send with those Christmas cards, they’ll likely have to be done indoors this year. But the rain doesn’t stop on Thanksgiving Day: there’s a chance for rain each day Friday-Sunday. At least there will be a warm up expected for the weekend as temperatures jump into the 60s on Saturday.

Overall, an early look at the weather doesn’t quite look like it will be cooperating throughout most of the Holiday celebrations; however, we are still a week out, so things still have potential to change for the better. Just keep in mind that your flight planes might be changing to and from your Holiday destinations if you are flying out of or into Louisville or Nashville next week.

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A Little Warming Trend Ahead

Overall it has been a cold first half of November; in fact, we are on track to be the fifth coldest November on record with an average temperature of 41. The particularly cold spell at the beginning of last week helped get us to this point, but our chance of staying in the top ten coldest Novembers will diminish as we warm up over the next few days.

Tonight will be cool and calm, with a chance for some fog throughout the region overnight. Morning lows will start in the mid-30s, so don’t forget to grab a jacket before heading out the door tomorrow.

Wednesday will be mostly sunny and mild with a high of 55 as high pressure moves directly over the Commonwealth.

Wednesday night will continue to be warm with clouds increasing overnight ahead of an approaching system.

Morning lows on Thursday will dip to only 40, and it will stay mild throughout the day as a warm front brings additional heat and moisture to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Cloud cover will be dense most of the day, but highs will top out around 64.

Thursday night will start to take a turn late as rain develops ahead of a cold front. Temperatures will stay in the low 50s throughout much of the night. The rain will likely hold off until the early morning hours on Friday.

Friday through the weekend will be cooler with increased rain chances for the first half of the weekend.

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Cool and cloudy days ahead

Tuesday morning temperatures will be in the upper 30s under overcast skies, with the chance for some light sprinkles throughout the morning. It will remain mostly cloudy all day, as temperatures rise into the mid 50s, with a slight chance for some more light rain around 2:00pm.
Tuesday night will be dry but cloudy, keeping temperatures in the low 40s overnight. Cloud cover will remain all day Wednesday, limiting the high temperature to a cool 48°F.
Wednesday night the temperature will drop back to 40°F before midnight, however a warm front will move through the area early Thursday morning, raising the temperature back to the mid-40s by sunrise. The warm front will also bring more some more showers into the area early Thursday afternoon.

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Mercury at perihelion

   I wouldn’t like to miss this a unique astronomical event that is happened this week because we don’t do a public direct observation of solar system planets all the time. This time on November 11, 2019 Mercury passed directory in the front of our sun and it was visible through telescope. It was a small beautiful black dot crossing the sun`s face (see fig 1). It was visible here in US because the transit began at morning time.  Note that the last transit of Mercury was in early 2016 and the next one we might see won’t be until 2023.  The current location Mercury today at this time is at perihelion which mean the location where the Mercury close to the Sun.  

Figure 1: Left hand side, Mercury is crossing the Sun. Right hand side: Mercury at perihelion at 11:05 CST on 16 Nov 2019

The Current weather conditions at Bowling Green is fair and the temperature will reach to high 40s °F. The night will be cold with low temperature at mid-20s °F with mostly clear. No significant weather during this weekend by analysis the synoptic scale we could related the stable condition to the surface high pressure dominate at the region (see fig 2). Therefore, the weekend will be dry weather and sunshine mixed with clouds in some times.

Figure 2: Current surface map at 11:00 CST: NWS

Summary

Day and time Condition High(°F) Low (°F)
Tonight Mostly Clear   25
Saturday Sunny 49  
Saturday Night Mostly clear   25 
Sunday Mostly Cloudy 51  
Sunday Night  Mostly Cloudy   32 
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Snowy Start to the Week

Winter made it’s first appearance a little early this year! With a cold front sweeping through the Commonwealth last night and a serious shot of cold air behind it, the moderate rainfall we had late afternoon changed over to sleet and then all snow just after the dinner hours. With the early snow came some record breaking conditions: a record snowfall of 1.2″ for Nov. 11th and a record snowfall of .1″ for Nov. 12th. We also saw a new record low max temp for the 12th with today’s high reaching only 27.

Tomorrow’s record low temp of 13 set back in 1911 is also in jeopardy as temps will drop into the teens tomorrow morning and wind chills in the single digits. With sunny skies and high temps back into the 40s, it will be much more pleasant than today once we get past noon.

Thursday’s low will be much warmer, but still far below freezing. High temps will be a lot warmer with highs reaching close to 50, and it will be sunny once again.

Friday will be a little cooler as highs drop back into the low to mid 40s, but at least skies will be clear all day long.

The weekend will be warmer as temps move into the mid 50s with continued sunshine.

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Cold and Snowy

Today we reach a high temperature of 62°F, however the temperature quickly dropped as a cold front moved into our area this afternoon, bringing rain and now snow with it. The snow is should continue until shortly after midnight, although not much accumulation is expected on roadways, however, bridges and elevated roadways may freeze. While the snow may be ending tonight, the cold isn’t. Tuesday morning temperatures will be in the low 20s and will remain in the 20s all day. Brisk wind will accompany the cold air, causing single digit windchills for your morning commute, rising to the mid-teens later in the day.

Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will be even colder, with an overnight low in the upper teens. The temperature will rise above freezing during the day, with a high around 40°F before dropping back to the mid-20s Wednesday night.

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32°F

I came to WKU this morning as usual by my motorbike but this time I felt sharp pain in my ears because the temperature was 32°F (0 °C) when I was riding the bike. I think I will stop coming by this way and start using the bus. 

It is sunny right now but cold, the temperature won’t rise up too much this afternoon but in low 40s °F. the night will be extremely cold and low temperature will be upper 20s °F. it is clear and dry due to a strong high pressure over the Mississippi Valley and will move to Ohio Valley later on (see figure 1).

Figure 1: Current surface map: Friday morning: NWS

  I prefer this time to look at SPC surface plumes to see how the temperature will oscillates during this weekend (see figure 2). All weather modules almost agree that the temperature will drop off below 0 °C this night to low 23 °F. Then the temperature will rise up on Saturday to high near 52 °F and upper 50 by Sunday due to moving the high pressure to the east. This movement will allow to warm up the area through this weekend but the low will touch again the freezing point, as plume curve shows at 6Z to 12Z. Monday will be another story because we might see snow after rain at night due to upper level flow will deepen upper level trough  and a cold front will push southeast at the same time.

Figure 2: SPC surface plumes for Bowling Green, KY

Summary

Day and time Condition High(°F) Low (°F)
Tonight Clear   23
Saturday Sunny 52   
Saturday Night Mostly clear   34 
Sunday Sunny 60  
Sunday Night  Mostly Cloudy   40 
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Rain Returns Wednesday

Today was another cool fall day, our high temperature reached 60°F. We stayed dry today, however, that is a trend we will soon break
Tonight will be a frigid night, as temperatures fall back into the mid 30s. Wednesday we can expect temperatures to climb into the mid 60s. We have a chance for showers Wednesday afternoon, with rain chances increasing for the overnight hours as a cold front moves through our region early Thursday morning.

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Chilly Temperature

It seems we start the new month with a chilly temperature. My family w so sad yesterday because they couldn’t do the Halloween activities due to frozen temperature during all yesterday and night. The Freeze Warning was published yesterday until this morning. It is hard to think about it, how the temperature sharply dropped down but this is how the weather and climate work out in our life.

To analysis the cold event that took place yesterday, we must take into account the synoptic scale. A massive cold front moved and approached from north west toward south east, causing a severe cold weather last day (see figure 1). Not only that, but another cold front is coming and follow up the same scenario (see figure 2). Therefore, we might see another freeze warning during this fall. Additionally, a high pressure is located over central of US which in turn made the blue sky for the day with low temperatures, a high 40 °F and low 30 °F during night.

figure 1: Current surface map: NWS
Figure 2: Tomorrow forecast for surface map. A cold front is moving toward to central Kentucky

Summary

Day and time Condition High(°F) Low (°F)
Tonight Clear   30 
Saturday Sunny 52   
Saturday Night Mostly clear   28 
Sunday Sunny 54   
Sunday Night   Mostly clear   33 
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