Student Research Conference; Also, Happy World Meteorological Day

Surface Observations (Source: College of DuPage)

Today marks our 49th Annual Student Research Conference, the 69th Anniversary of the World Meteorlogical Organization, and marks a wonderful sunny day. High pressure all across Kentucky will ensure sunny skies and calm winds for our Saturday. Highs for today will reach the upper 50’s, and lows in the upper 30’s.

Unfortunately, as soon as Sunday begins, the sunshine will start to end. Rain will start to head down Sunday afternoon. There can possibly be thunderstorms, but the chance for them to become severe are low. Highs for Sunday will be in the lower 60’s, and lows in the lower 40’s. Monday will see some similar chances for rain and storms, with highs in the upper 50’s and lows in the upper 40’s.

12Z GFS SLP and Precipitation (Source: College of DuPage)

I’d like to cheer on those who are participating in the Student Research Conference and hope they do well!

Forecast:

Saturday: Sunny; High: 57, Low: 34

Sunday: 60% chance for rain and thunderstorms in the afternoon; High: 63, Low: 44

Monday: 50% chance for rain and thunderstorms; High: 56, Low: 49

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Shaping Up to be an Awesome Weekend!

Currently, there is an upper-level low circulating off to the north of the Commonwealth bringing in the cloudier skies. This feature will move out of the Ohio Valley and move into the Mid-Atlantic later on this evening. Skies will begin to clear out of the area later on tonight, the clear skies that we will be experiencing will help the temperatures drop to around the freezing mark.

Figure 1: 2m Temperature, NAM 12Z FRI MARCH 22

High pressure begins to settle in heading into your Friday, with most of the area experiencing nothing but sunshine, with the exception of a few stray afternoon clouds. Highs around the area on Friday will rise into the upper 50s. Heading into Friday night, the ridge aloft will strength and settle over the Ohio Valley, this will result in clear skies during the night time hours. Again, the clear skies during the night time hours will aid in temperature dropping below zero, with temperatures early Saturday morning struggling to get above the 30 degree mark.

Figure 2: Avg. Total Cloud Cover, NAM 12Z SAT MARCH 23

Saturday looks spectacular with sunny skies and highs around the area rising into the upper 50s. Another storm system will begin to push into the area heading into Sunday. The rain chances will increase throughout the day on Sunday and heading into Sunday night/Monday morning.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 35. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 58. West wind 7 to 13 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 57. Northeast wind 3 to 5 mph.

Sunday: Rain chances increasing throughout the day, especially after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62.

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Warm But Wet Midweek

Thankfully we have a nice high pressure system on top of us right now allowing for some mild, sunny weather. Hopefully everyone was able to step outside for a little bit. We’ve been having some especially beautiful sunsets lately as well. You should definitely consider putting on a light jacket to check it out.

Satellite imagery is showing high clouds over the area. Unfortunately as we move through the night a low pressure system with some rain attached will push through lasting through Thursday. I don’t think that the actual rain will hit us until night if not waiting until early Thursday.

This increase in clouds could prevent us from getting a good view of the Full Worm Moon that will help finish off the first day of spring.

Believe it or not there is good news attached to all of this. Temperatures will be warm and will stay fairly warm. Of course there could still be outlier days but the overall temperatures are on the up.

  • SUMMARY:
    • Tuesday:
      • High: 56
      • Low: 35
    • Wednesday:
      • High: 62
      • Low: 41
    • Thursday:
      • High: 54
      • Low: 36
      • Get those umbrellas and rain boots out! It will be a rainy day.

Stay safe and have a good week!

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Staying High and Dry

With a cold front moving through our region yesterday, we are feeling cooler temperatures to start off our work week. Luckily, lots of sun will continue as a high pressure system has made its way into the Ohio Valley. This high pressure system will allow us to continue staying “high and dry” for the next few days until a slight chance of some showers come mid week. These showers are due to a low north of the Great Lakes that could tail in a chance of some light scattered showers Thursday.

Today and most of the day tomorrow will contain lots of sun before clouds build tomorrow afternoon. Other than the slight chance of showers mid week, we will remain mostly dry with sunny skies until the later part of the weekend when the potential of our next weather maker returns. The temperatures will also increase as we move through the week, giving us a shot at temperatures in the mid to upper 60’s by this weekend.

NAM 6Z Cloud Cover

FORECAST

Today (3/18): Mostly sunny and cooler
High: 53
Low: 31
Tonight: Mostly clear

Tuesday (3/19): Mostly sunny and mild with clouds increasing in the afternoon
High: 55
Low: 33
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy

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More Sun to end your Weekend

The sunshine will continue for our Sunday despite the weak mid-latitude system up in Indiana. Nevertheless, the cold front that will pass today, will make tomorrow a bit cooler.

SFC Observations (Source: College of DuPage)

Highs for Sunday will still be in the mid-upper 50’s and lows will still be in the lower 30’s. Monday will be a bit chillier as mentioned before, with highs in the lower 50’s, and lows in the lower 30’s. Tuesday will see an end for pure sunshine as the cloudiness will increase as the day progresses. Highs for Tuesday will be the mid 50’s, and lows will be in the mid-upper 30’s.

6Z GFS Cloud Cover (Source: College of DuPage)

Forecast:

Sunday: Sunshine, High: 56, Low: 33

Monday: Sunshine, High: 54, Low: 32

Tuesday: Increasing cloudiness in the afternoon; High, 56, Low: 36

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Sunshine for Saturday and Sunday?

While the conditions for our Saturday are starting to reflect a spring-like atmosphere, the temperatures are not. We are currently having temperatures in the thirties.

Surface Observations (Source: College of DuPage)

With a high pressure field centered over in Oklahoma, the next few days will be more uneventful compared to Thursday. Today will be quite sunny,with highs in the mid-upper 50’s, and lows in the lower 30’s. Sunday could see minimal clouds, with highs in the mid-upper 50’s, and lows in the lower 30’s. Monday will be sunny, with highs in the mid-upper 50’s, and lows in the lower 30’s.

Forecast

Saturday: Sunny, High: 57, Low:34

Sunday: Fair, High: 56, Low: 33

Monday: Sunny, High: 55, Low: 32

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Sunny and Seasonable Weather on the Horizon!

If you’re still here (you didn’t get blown away from the incredible winds we had over the past 2 days) then I have some good news for you all. The forecast looks full of sunshine and seasonable temperatures.

Synopsis:

High pressure will be the dominant weather maker over the next few days as it remains anchored over the region. This will suppress any development of rain or cloud activity for at least the weekend. A weak clipper system will swing through the Ohio Valley on Sunday but most of the showers should stay well north of South Central KY. After that, the next best chance of rain looks to arrive around the Wednesday night-Thursday timeline. We don’t expect to pick up much in the way of rainfall, however, and the sunshine will certainly return by the afternoon hours on Thursday.

Saturday morning 7 AM CDT
Sunday morning 7 AM CDT

South Central KY Forecast:

Tonight- Mostly clear with lows hovering right around around 30

Saturday- Plenty of sunshine with highs in the upper 50s

Saturday Evening- Skies stay clear with lows dipping back into the 30s

Looks like for now at least we avoided the terrible Ides of March. Enjoy the sunshine, soak up some Vitamin D over the next couple of days, and have a safe and fun-filled weekend!

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Gusty Winds this Evening, With a Cool But Pleasant Forecast for the Upcoming Weekend.

***The Tornado Watch that was issued for our area has expired as of 4:00 CDT***

The rest of this evening will be quite gusty with a Wind Advisory in effect until 10:00 PM CDT. Winds will be sustained at around 25 mph with gusts as high as 40-50 mph.

Figure 1: HRRR 10m Wind Gust (kts): 23Z Thu March 14, 2019

Quiet weather will settle into the area as the area of low pressure moves out of the Great Lakes and into Southern Ontario, simultaneously, high pressure will begin to settle in from the west. For the rest of this evening, temperatures will begin to drop with winds coming in from the NW ushering much cooler and drier air.

Figure 2: NAM 2m Dewpoint (F): 03Z Fri March 15, 2019

The start of the day on Friday will be a tad chilly with clear skies, temperatures rebound back to around 50 degrees in the afternoon with an increase in cloud coverage. Temperatures on Friday night will drop down to around the freezing mark, would not be surprised if most locations around the area will wake up to some morning frost on Saturday.

Figure 3: NAM 2m Temp (F): 12Z Sat March 16, 2019

Medium to long range model guidance are indicating a mild weather pattern setting up across the region heading into next week and next weekend (Next weekend is along ways out, so things could change).

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 42. Southwest wind 9 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.

Friday: Clear to start off the day with increasing clouds throughout the afternoon hours, with a high near 50. West wind 10 to 14 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 31. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 50. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 54.

***FOR FURTHER UPDATES, VISIT WHITE SQUIRREL WEATHER & THE WKU METEOROLOGY BLOG***

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Interesting Weather Day Ahead: Damaging Winds, Severe Thunderstorms?

Let’s start with incredible satellite imagery of the 3/13/19 Great Plains blizzard (or “Bomb Cyclone”, as you may have heard about in the news) currently over the United States:

With blizzard conditions stretching from Colorado to North Dakota, this storm is a beast! But what does this mean for Kentucky?

HRRR Wind Gusts

Hold on to your hats! Expect it to get pretty gusty at times. The HRRR (high resolution, short range weather model) is showing wind gusts in the 40-50 mph neighborhood for most of the day tomorrow. Combined with rain, this could lead to some downed trees across the area- be wary of this.

HRRR Simulated Reflectivity

There is also a shot at some severe weather for our area. As the HRRR model illustrates above, the potential for a line of storms (or even isolated storms!) capable of producing severe weather is there. This could occur anytime in the early to late afternoon. This set up, however, is interesting because it comes with a potential flaw:

NAM Cloud Cover

There are two distinct possibilities for tomorrow’s weather. The first would be something like the model depicted above, where clouds and rain hold on through most of the morning and early afternoon. In this scenario, it is not likely we would experience much in the way of severe weather. The second possibility is for less rain and clouds- meaning more clearing for the sun to heat the Earth’s surface. In this scenario, the chance for severe weather in our area rises.

Besides staying up to date with our blog, keep your eye on the sky tomorrow- and follow the NWS as well as your local TV meteorologists for the latest!

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Warm Midweek Turns Rainy Thursday

Good morning everyone! Hopefully Spring Break went well for all students, and the time change is not hitting everyone too hard.

We have a high pressure system over the region that is helping to give us a nice start to the week. To the south there is some rain but that won’t reach us. Some more clouds will move into the area later on. Our next system is currently is Southern California dropping rain on them as well as some snow in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. This low pressure system will make its way into the area Wednesday night where we’ll start to see some rain. Thursday will be rainy as well with the potential for Thunderstorms. There could be some flash flooding associated with all the rain so be careful on the roadways. Make sure if the road is flooded to turn around.

Today’s Surface Map with the high pressure in our area and the low out west.

The other big concern, along with the rain, is the wind for Wednesday and Thursday. Models are showing winds 25-30 mph for Wednesday and especially Thursday. This will make for driving lighter cars more difficult so again be careful the next couple of days. While an umbrella may be needed for the rain Thursday, the winds could make it very difficult to use.

Anything severe looks to remain to the south of Kentucky. Just keep an eye out for the rain and heavy winds. Thankfully temperatures will remain nice for the next couple of days. The highest temperature for March so far of 72° will be seen for Thursday.

  • SUMMARY:
    • Tuesday:
      • High: 61
      • Low: 46
    • Wednesday:
      • High: 69
      • Low: 59
      • Strong winds will come into the area. Rain will make its way into the area towards night.
    • Thursday:
      • High: 72
      • Low: 43
      • Rain and possible thunderstorms will come down all day before clearing for Friday. Strong winds will continue to be a problem Thursday.

Have a fun, safe week everyone!

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