Stormy Saturday Ahead

Current:

Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from midnight CST Saturday through late Saturday night. The next system looks to bring widespread rain this evening through Saturday as well as a potent cold front that could bring the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday evening.

Severe Weather Potential:

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has placed our region under a Slight Risk for severe weather tomorrow. This means that scattered severe storms are possible. Storms are expected to be short-lived, not widespread, but some isolated intense storms are possible. The main threats associated with this storm system is: heavy rain, locally damaging winds, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out completely.

SPC Day 2 Categorical Severe Weather Outlook

Set-Up:

A low pressure system with associated warm and cold fronts is expected to move into the Great Lakes by Saturday evening. The warm front will slowly lift northward through the early morning hours on Saturday bringing more rain, heavy at times, to the region.

HRRR Simulated Reflectivity for 6 AM Saturday morning.

A break in the rain looks to occur late morning to early afternoon before the first round of storms start to move in around early afternoon. Some models have been more bullish with the instability and some have limited the instability till later on in the evening ahead of the cold front. What exactly will play out remains to be seen, and will be monitored closely through the afternoon hours.


HRRR Simulated Reflectivity for 1 PM Saturday afternoon.

The greatest chance for severe weather looks to be ahead of the approaching cold front Saturday evening. The storms then organize into a broken line ahead of the front and start to press into the region around 6-9 PM time frame. The timing could change depending on a variety of factors but again, this will be closely monitored throughout the day tomorrow. The main threats from this system will again be heavy rain, strong winds, and isolated tornadoes due to the strong vertical wind shear (change of wind direction or speed with height) present over the area. The activity should be out of the region by the early morning hours on Sunday.


HRRR Simulated Reflectivity for 6 PM Saturday evening.

Forecast:

Tonight – Shower activity increasing through the overnight hours with periods of heavy rain possible. Lows should fall into the mid 40s.

Saturday – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs should reach into the mid 60s with wind gusts in the upper 20s possible at times.

Saturday night – Showers and thunderstorms likely, some storms could be strong to severe. Heavy rain at times with winds gusts in the upper 20s possible. Lows fall into the mid 40s.

Stay weather aware tomorrow and have a way to receive watches and warnings should they be issued. You can also follow these social media accounts for the latest weather information: @wkustormteam @WKUWeather on Twitter and WKU Storm Team on Facebook. Stay Safe!

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Potent Storm System to Impact the Area Heading into this Weekend

Short Term Outlook (Thursday – Friday)

A weak area of high pressure at the surface accompanied by upper-level shortwave ridging will keep the Bowling Green area dry for the rest of Thursday. High temperatures today will top out around the 50 degree mark accompanied with mostly cloudy skies. Cloud coverage will be on the increase heading into tonight as a weak disturbance moves in from the west. Shower chances will increase also as this weak storm system races across the region.

Southwest anticyclonic flow at the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere will increase as a persistent area of high pressure continues to build over the Bahamas/Caribbean. This will enhance the transport of moisture at the lower levels of the atmosphere, increasing the shower chances throughout the day on Friday. Rainfall totals on Friday will be on the lighter side with rainfall amounts in between .50-.75 inches.

Figure 1: 12Z NAM 500mb Heights & Winds, Valid for 18Z 02/22/19

Figure 2: 12Z NAM 24 hr Precip. Accumulation, Valid for 03Z 02/23/19

Long Term Outlook (Friday Night-Sunday)

As we head into Friday night waves of moderate to heavy rain will move through the area associated with an approaching warm front moving in from the south. Temperatures on Friday night will hover right around 50 degrees. The approaching warm front is associated with a developing area of low pressure over the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. By sunrise on Saturday, the warm front will be over the area, accompanied with moderate to heavy rain showers. By the midday hours on Saturday, The area of low pressure over the Southern Plains will begin to rapidly develop and move northeastward into the Mississippi River Valley.

Figure 3: 18Z NAM 2m Temperature, Winds, Valid for 18Z 02/23/19

The low-level flow behind the warm front will provide ample moisture for some of the energy from the approaching low pressure to tap into. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will be expected throughout the early morning and mid-morning hours on Saturday. The rain is expected to lift north of the area during the afternoon hours allowing temperatures to rise into the middle 60s. Even though there is small break from the rain during the afternoon hours on Saturday, cloud cover will be dominant still, inhibiting the rise in temperatures a little bit.

As the area of low pressure moves through the Great Lakes region late on Saturday, it will drag a cold front through the area. A squall line (long line of thunderstorms, with embedded severe thunderstorms) will likely accompany the cold front as it moves through. Strong-to-damaging winds and very heavy rain will be the dominant impact from this line of thunderstorms, but you can’t rule out a quick spin-up as these storms will have ample wind shear to work with. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has the Bowling Green area highlighted under and ENHANCED risk for severe weather, a 3 out-of 5 on the Categorical Outlook Legend.

Figure 4: SPC Day 3 Categorical Outlook, Valid for 1200Z 02/23 – 1200Z 02/24

Strong winds out of the west will dominate the area heading into Sunday as the cold front departs the region late on Saturday or early Sunday morning. Highs on Sunday will reach the middle 50s with mostly sunny skies. High pressure will move in from the west heading into the beginning part of the work week on Monday, giving the area a chance to dry out after an active week of rain. This upcoming storm system is still over the southwestern part of the US, so details about the rainfall amounts and severe weather impacts could change.

For further updates on the potential for severe weather and heavy rain this weekend, keep up to date with White Squirrel Weather and the WKU Meteorology Blog.

Tonight: Showers. Low around 40. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph. Precipitation amounts between 0.25-0.50 inches.

Friday: Showers. High in the low 50s. East wind 7 to 10 mph. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Friday Night: Showers, with thunderstorms also possible in the evening. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 48. East wind 6 to 8 mph. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Saturday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain and be strong/severe. High near 68. South wind 8 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies with a high in the middle 50s.

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Rain, Rain Go Away

It’s been a soggy February- and this wet pattern continues into the weekend.

Many areas across the region are dealing with flooding and overflowing rivers, and it looks like an additional 1-4 inches is yet to come. Remember, do not try to cross flooded roadways as the power of water can sweep a vehicle off the road!

0Z NAM total precip accumulation
0Z GFS

After looking at models such as the 0Z NAM and GFS, it is easy to see that rain across the Midwest and South is still to come. This will likely lead to worsened flooding conditions and overflowing creeks/rivers/waterfalls.

0Z GFS

It seems that there is truly no good news with our weather pattern lately, but thankfully there is something on Saturday. Overall, it will be pretty warm as we will reach the upper 60s. However, this comes with a price tag- the chance for storms. This will need to be watched closely over the next few days, as the threat for severe storms is increasing near our region. Stay up to date with the latest!

Summary:

  • More rain still to come!
  • Be wary on roads prone to flooding
  • Severe weather threat this Saturday
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♫Hello Rain My Old Friend♫

I hope everyone is enjoying this sunny, cool day because we have some more rain coming up. We are officially in an El Niño phase but are dealing with more La Niña type precipitation levels. This is likely from another oscillation at play. This system is one that has been on replay throughout the season and is unfortunately going to roll around once again. A nice high pressure system lying to the north of us has helped to give us a sunny sky for today. A low pressure system to the west along with moisture from the south will bring rain later this evening.

Surface Observations with radar and satellite.

That rain will stay in the area until Thursday but it will come around again Thursday night. There is a flood watch in effect from 6 pm tonight until Thursday at 6 am. Please keep an eye out for flooded roadways!

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/temperature/us-current

Notice the green line going across lower Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia. Above it temperatures are in the 30s and 40s while below temperatures range from the 60s to 80s. That warm front in the south will rise up to warm us a little.

  • SUMMARY:
    • Tuesday:
      • High: 45
      • Low: 38
      • Precipitation: 50% this afternoon rising to 100% tonight
    • Wednesday:
      • High: 57
      • Low: 38
      • Precipitation: 100% all day
    • Thursday:
      • High: 54
      • Low: 37
      • Precipitation: Sunny skies during the day but a 40% of rain towards night

Please stay safe and have a great week!

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Yet Another Wet Week Ahead

Happy President’s Day! Lots of rain is expected to sweep across south-central KY this week, so enjoy this dry day as much as you can. To start, a cold front has moved through making temperatures feel a bit cooler than they have been. Todays highs are expected to peak out in the upper 30’s. Moving into the outlook this week, there is a high pressure system sitting in the southeast which will force moisture to feed into our area. The moisture is set to arrive late tomorrow (Tuesday) evening. Based on the set up of the ridge to the southeast, lots of moisture will be funneled in bringing upwards of 2.5 inches Tuesday and Wednesday. Due to the the abundance of rain expected to come, the NWS will likely put out a flood watch and/or similar alerts within the day. As always, we will keep you updated when these alerts are put out.

NAM 24-Hour Precipitation Amount (COD Weather)

As you can see, rain is expected to be heavy and consistent overnight Tuesday and throughout Wednesday. Do not rule out the possibility of some thunder embedded in the heavier times of rain, as well. A warm front will arrive tomorrow (reason for the warmer temperatures) bringing in the rain behind it. Another wave of precipitation is expected to hit later in the week bringing more rain, but we will keep you updated on amounts and timing. Even though it is a bit cooler today, enjoy it being dry because that will all change tomorrow night.

FORECAST:

Today (1/18): Partly cloudy and cool.
High: 39
Low: 28
Tonight: Partly cloudy and chilly.

Tuesday (1/19): Clouds will increase throughout the day brining rain into the evening. Chance of rain 60%.
High: 59
Low: 40
Tuesday Night: Rain (heavy at times) throughout the night and into most of the day Wednesday. Chance of rain 100%.


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Sunday’s Showers

It looks as if the chances for rain have returned for our Sunday as a trough is making a pass in the afternoon. The setup below will allow for us to see this rain in action.

13Z Sfc Observations (Source: College of DuPage)

Highs for our Sunday will be in the mid-lower 40’s and lows will be in the low 30’s. For our Monday, these showers will pass as the trough has passed.

6Z GFS 300mb Heights and Winds (Source: College of DuPage)

The map above suggests that the jet stream will form a ridge pattern, which can suppress cloud formation. This also suggests that our Monday will have a chance for sunshine. Monday’s highs will be in the upper 30’s, so it’ll be a bit chilly, and the lows are even colder in the lower 30’s. Tuesday will see a similar story to Monday, but the rains will return at the very end of our forecast period.

Forecast:

Sunday: Showers, High: 44, Low: 32

Monday: Mostly Cloudy, High: 39, Low: 31

Tuesday: Cloudy with rain in the evening, High: 41, Low: 32

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See-saw Saturday and Sunday

Surface Map (Source: College of DuPage)

A high pressure system centralized in northern Minnesota will allow for us down in Bowling Green to enjoy a temporary reprieve from the wintry mix. Unfortunately, it will be cold for our Saturday, with highs in the upper 30’s and lows in the upper 20’s.

With the continued position of the subtropical jet in the central Pacific Ocean, moisture flow will be constant. For our Sunday, the see-saw will lean more towards the precipitation side.

6Z GFS Precipitation Type (Source: College of DuPage)

The map above suggests that our main type of precipitation will be rain for our Sunday, but there is always the chance for a wintry mix. It will warm up a bit, with highs in the upper 40’s, and lows in the mid 30’s. For our Monday, we are looking at the see-saw to move back to a drier side. Highs will be in the low 40’s and lows will be in the lower 30’s. Nevertheless, our weekend will be a cloudy one.

Forecast:

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, High: 39, Low: 29

Sunday: 100% chance of rain, possibly wintry mix, High: 48, Low: 37

Monday: Cloudy, High: 40, Low: 32

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Wintry Weather Heading into the Weekend?

The gusty winds that we experienced today will weaken as we head into the overnight hours. A slight forcing mechanism from the approaching storm system could spark off a few showers across the region tonight. Temperatures throughout the area will be well above freezing heading into tomorrow morning with lows bottoming out around 40 degrees. Cold air advection will filter into the area following a weak cold front, keeping tomorrow’s high temperature into the middle 40s. Clouds will stick around throughout the day ahead of our next storm system.

Quick-hitting upper-level shortwave trough will swing through the Ohio River Valley Friday. The National Weather Service out of Louisville, KY issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Warren County as this system could bring the area a quick-hitting round of wintry weather.

High temperatures tomorrow drop off quick as cold air advection noses into the area dropping temperatures around the area to right around the freezing mark. If temperatures drop below freezing, that could lead to a quick changeover from rain to some sort of frozen precipitation. Model guidance hasn’t been consistent on the magnitude of cold air filtering into the region and when that changeover could happen. As we get closer to the event, model guidance should have a good grasp on the amounts of freezing precipitation. As of now, model guidance is spitting out a light glaze to possibly a .10 of an inch of ice.

The wintry precipitation will exit the region before the daylight hours on Saturday morning as high pressure builds to the north. Model guidance is indicating at high temperatures on Saturday staying in the middle 30s with partly sunny skies. Another shortwave will impact the region late Saturday night into Sunday bringing back the chance for light precipitation.

The entire area we continue to be in this active weather pattern heading into next week. For further updates visit the WKU Meteorology Blog and White Squirrel Weather.

Friday: Rain likely after 4pm with otherwise mostly cloudy skies, high temperature in the middle 40s.

Friday night: Rain before 3am, changing over to light freezing rain/mix. Low temperatures right around 30 degrees. Little to no ice accumulation expected.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high right around 40 degrees.

Sunday: Chance of rain throughout the day, high temperature in the low 50s.

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Valentine’s Day Forecast

What is that bright yellow ball in the sky?

It sure seems like it has been a while since the sun has been visible! Rain has been the story for much of February so far; and some long range models are hinting that the active pattern continues for at least the next week or so.

12Z GFS Model run

Models, such as the 12Z GFS shown above, are signaling the potential for another system to impact us this weekend. This far out it’s hard to tell where that rain to ice/snow line will fall- but it is certainly something to keep an eye on over the next few days. With an ongoing active pattern into the latter half of February, there’s a good chance that we could see some more winter weather before the month is over.

18Z NAM Model Run

Check out that surge of yellows from the south at the beginning of the model run above. That’s a decent warm-up (50’s) for Valentine’s Day, before another cold front passes and it gets cold yet again.

01Z HRRR

Above, the short range HRRR model illustrates gusty winds of about 30-40mph moving into the area by the early afternoon tomorrow. For those in high profile vehicles, take it slow and safe out there on the highways as these winds could make travel difficult. For those delivering Valentine’s Day flowers, do it in the morning and avoid losing them to the wind!

Summary:

  • An active weather pattern continues; chances for wintry precipitation over the next few weeks
  • Southerly winds ahead of a cold front bring milder temperatures and strong winds for Valentine’s Day
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Good News and Bad News

Well the good news is that the rain is on its way out. The bad, it’s gotten chilly again. We’ve seen it rain all day with quit a few heavy gusts of wind. White Squirrel Weather recorded a gust of 45 mph earlier.

Looking at the surface map, the stationary front that was keeping all that nasty rain around has finally been pushed out of the way. Behind it is the cold front that has today so windy and temperatures dropping.

Satellite also shows most of those clouds being pushed out of the way for a brighter tomorrow.

Thursday is looking to be a nice day for Valentine’s. Towards the night time we do have a 40% of rain.

  • SUMMARY:
    • Tuesday:
      • High: 59
      • Low: 30
      • The rain is on its way out but with it comes the cold. Please continue to watch for flooded roadways!
    • Wednesday:
      • High: 48
      • Low: 37
      • Sunny skies!
    • Thursday:
      • High: 56
      • Low:45
      • Happy Valentine’s!! There will be increasing rain chances into the night but overall it should be a pleasant day.
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