Interesting Weather Day Ahead: Damaging Winds, Severe Thunderstorms?

Let’s start with incredible satellite imagery of the 3/13/19 Great Plains blizzard (or “Bomb Cyclone”, as you may have heard about in the news) currently over the United States:

With blizzard conditions stretching from Colorado to North Dakota, this storm is a beast! But what does this mean for Kentucky?

HRRR Wind Gusts

Hold on to your hats! Expect it to get pretty gusty at times. The HRRR (high resolution, short range weather model) is showing wind gusts in the 40-50 mph neighborhood for most of the day tomorrow. Combined with rain, this could lead to some downed trees across the area- be wary of this.

HRRR Simulated Reflectivity

There is also a shot at some severe weather for our area. As the HRRR model illustrates above, the potential for a line of storms (or even isolated storms!) capable of producing severe weather is there. This could occur anytime in the early to late afternoon. This set up, however, is interesting because it comes with a potential flaw:

NAM Cloud Cover

There are two distinct possibilities for tomorrow’s weather. The first would be something like the model depicted above, where clouds and rain hold on through most of the morning and early afternoon. In this scenario, it is not likely we would experience much in the way of severe weather. The second possibility is for less rain and clouds- meaning more clearing for the sun to heat the Earth’s surface. In this scenario, the chance for severe weather in our area rises.

Besides staying up to date with our blog, keep your eye on the sky tomorrow- and follow the NWS as well as your local TV meteorologists for the latest!

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Warm Midweek Turns Rainy Thursday

Good morning everyone! Hopefully Spring Break went well for all students, and the time change is not hitting everyone too hard.

We have a high pressure system over the region that is helping to give us a nice start to the week. To the south there is some rain but that won’t reach us. Some more clouds will move into the area later on. Our next system is currently is Southern California dropping rain on them as well as some snow in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. This low pressure system will make its way into the area Wednesday night where we’ll start to see some rain. Thursday will be rainy as well with the potential for Thunderstorms. There could be some flash flooding associated with all the rain so be careful on the roadways. Make sure if the road is flooded to turn around.

Today’s Surface Map with the high pressure in our area and the low out west.

The other big concern, along with the rain, is the wind for Wednesday and Thursday. Models are showing winds 25-30 mph for Wednesday and especially Thursday. This will make for driving lighter cars more difficult so again be careful the next couple of days. While an umbrella may be needed for the rain Thursday, the winds could make it very difficult to use.

Anything severe looks to remain to the south of Kentucky. Just keep an eye out for the rain and heavy winds. Thankfully temperatures will remain nice for the next couple of days. The highest temperature for March so far of 72° will be seen for Thursday.

  • SUMMARY:
    • Tuesday:
      • High: 61
      • Low: 46
    • Wednesday:
      • High: 69
      • Low: 59
      • Strong winds will come into the area. Rain will make its way into the area towards night.
    • Thursday:
      • High: 72
      • Low: 43
      • Rain and possible thunderstorms will come down all day before clearing for Friday. Strong winds will continue to be a problem Thursday.

Have a fun, safe week everyone!

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Staying Dry for the Start of the Week

As seen from GOES-16 (below), mostly cloudy skies are dominating right now as there is some light rain to our south (in the Nashville area). Expect this rain to remain to our south and move out by early this afternoon. This will allow for some sun to break through the clouds and bring some needed sunshine.

GOES-16 Visible/ Shortwave IR

As for the next few days, expect Bowling Green to stay dry until mid week (Wednesday night), when our next rain event moves in. A high pressure system is making its way down from northern Iowa and will end up in the Ohio valley by tomorrow morning. Expect clouds to decrease as we move through the day today, leaving mostly clear skies tonight. With a high pressure system set to be in place tomorrow, we can enjoy mostly sunny skies and high’s in the upper 50’s. Enjoy the mild temperatures and sunny skies the first half of the week before rain and colder temperatures find their way back into south central Kentucky.

FORECAST

Today (3/11): Mostly cloudy now with clouds decreasing as the day carries on. By the afternoon we will have partly cloudy skies
High: 56
Low: 34
Tonight: Mostly clear

Tuesday (3/12): Mostly sunny and mild
High: 58
Low: 45
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy

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Stratus Sunday

Our weekend is going to reach a cloudy conclusion for our Sunday. With the cold front’s passing, highs for us will be a bit cooler in the mid-upper 50’s, and the lows in the lower 40’s.

13Z SFC Observations (Source: College of DuPage)

With a strong high pressure system over Kansas, today and tomorrow will be quite uneventful for the mid-South; however, that doesn’t mean we will see any considerable sunshine. Monday will also see some considerable cloudiness, with highs in low 50’s, and lows in the lower 40’s. Tuesday might see some cloudiness as well, with highs in the upper 50’s, and lows in the upper 30’s.

Forecast:

Sunday: Cloudy; High: 57, Low: 42

Monday: Cloudy; High: 53, Low: 41

Tuesday: Cloudy; High: 59, Low: 37

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Severe Storm Saturday with Daylight Savings Return

Now it may be a bit chilly for severe weather right now, but a warm front will pass through as seen below, giving us a more ideal set up for severe weather.

13Z Surface Observations (Source: College of DuPage)

With considerable warming for the mid-South, those down in Bowling Green are looking at a slight risk for severe weather, along with central Tennessee. Western Tennessee is looking at an enhanced risk for severe weather, along with Northern Mississippi and places in Arkansas and Missouri. For more information regarding these risks, see this website.

Day 1 Convective Outlook (Source: SPC)

Even as I type this out, severe weather is making its way through Arkansas. Below is a simulation of the reflectivity one might encounter in the areas that have been marked as an enhanced severe weather area.

12Z HRRR Simulated Reflectivity (Source: College of DuPage)

The map above indicates that any severe weather will be structured as a squall line, which is stimulated by a front, usually a cold front. It will be a bit cooler when the storms pass through the area. As with any severe weather day, there is always a lookout for tornadoes.

12Z HRRR Significant Tornado Parameter (fixed layer) (Source: College of DuPage)

The above map outlines environments that are conducive to tornadoes. As such, they can be seen in Western Tennessee and Mississippi. May I ask that you please heed the warnings that the National Weather Service in your area issues. With all of that said, highs for the Bowling Green area will be in the mid-upper 60’s, and lows in the mid 30’s for Saturday. Despite some clearing for the early morning, Sunday will be mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 50’s, and lows in the lower 40’s. Monday is also cloudy, with highs in the mid 50’s, and lows in the lower 40’s. Before you go to bed on Saturday, you must know that you will lose an hour of sleep. Daylight Savings Time will return tomorrow.

Forecast:

Saturday: 100% chance for thunderstorms, maybe severe; High: 67, Low: 36

Sunday: Mostly Cloudy; High: 58, Low: 41

Monday: Cloudy; High: 55, Low: 40

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Unsettled Weather Returns

It sure was a chilly start to the day today- we woke up to a balmy 18 degrees and clear skies. It should warm up some by the weekend (relatively speaking, however) at the expense of additional rain. For an area that has already received an abundance of rain in the past month, this isn’t great news. Flooding could be a concern again, mainly in the areas we have already seen have issues.

The run of the GFS above shows two shots of rain by the weekend, one Friday and the other on Saturday. This system moving in on Saturday is one to keep an eye on, however, for severe storm potential. As we transition to Spring and practice tornado safety with the tornado drills we had across the state earlier today, this system seemingly comes right on time! In a few days, we can narrow down the specifics- but the chance for severe weather in the Ohio valley and south seems legit for this weekend.

SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Here is the NWS SPC’s Day 4-8 outlook for severe weather. Day 4 being Saturday, they highlight a large region across the Midwest and South to show the potential for bad weather. This is something to monitor as Saturday draws closer, especially if you have any Spring Break travel plans across the area. Stay up to date with our blog for more on the severe threat this weekend!

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Not Exactly Spring Break Weather!

Honestly as cold as Bowling Green was today, I am jealous! Bowling Green got to see a high of 34° while Louisville’s high was 28°. Currently it’s 34° (feels like 24°) in Bowling Green while Louisville it is 26° (feels like 14°). Thank goodness temperatures will get warmer as we push through the week.

Today’s Surface

A high pressure system is laying in the center of the continental US that will makes its way into our area tomorrow and leave out Thursday night. There’s not much going on weatherwise for today through Thursday other than the gradual increase in temperature. There is a chance for rain Thursday night as a front sweeps through the area.

Forecast valid Wednesday 12Z
Wednesday’s Surface Outlook
Forecast valid Thursday 12Z
Thursday’s Surface Outlook
  • SUMMARY:
  • Tuesday:
    • High: 34°
    • Low: 15°
    • Try not to freeze!
  • Wednesday:
    • High: 36°
    • Low: 24°
  • Thursday:
    • High: 48°
    • Low: 35°
    • Rain chances are possible Thursday night.

I hope everyone has a fun, safe spring break!

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Winter Temps Return Backed With Lots of Vitamin D

Chilly start this morning and expect little change as highs will only top out near 28 degrees today. Luckily, a high pressure system can be seen moving into our region from the west (below). This will allow for some much needed sun over the next several days. Unfortunately for us today, cold air advection will continue moving in from the northwest following the cold front that brought brief snow showers to our area yesterday. To add to the temperatures, winds could make it feel in the teens this afternoon and tomorrow. Be cautious if you plan to be outdoors for longer periods of time today or tomorrow, as frostbite and hypothermia are real dangers.

As for the next couple of days, expect a similar pattern as today. As described yesterday, zonal flow is dominating our region leaving us “high and dry” for the next few days. Moving to Tuesday, it will remain mostly sunny for the day with high’s slightly warmer near 35 degrees. Winds will pick up more tomorrow, so the dangers of hypothermia and frostbite will stick around for your Tuesday, too.

FORECAST

Today (3/04): Mostly sunny and cold. Winds from the north/northwest can make temperatures feel much colder than they are.
High: 28
Low: 14
Tonight: Mostly clear and cold


Tuesday (3/05): Mostly sunny and cold. Winds could make wind chill values feel in the single digits.
High: 35
Low: 17
Tuesday Night: Clear and cold

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Spring Break Starters

For those who left the Bowling Green area for Spring Break, enjoy! For those in Bowling Green, I have some news for you regarding the rains for your Sunday.

15Z SFC Observations (Source: College of DuPage)

The rains will be out of our way in the afternoon, bringing in needed sunshine, but it will be cold. With the jet stream (as seen below) positioned as such, the next few days will be quite uneventful.

300mb Jet Stream (Source: SPC)

Highs for Sunday will be in the mid 30’s and lows will be chilly in the upper 20’s. With the jet stream having a zonal flow, Monday will get to see some sunshine. Highs for Monday will be chilly in the lower 30’s and lows in the lower 20’s. Tuesday could possibly see some clouds with our sunshine, with highs in the lower 30’s and lows in the upper teens. If you’re going to be out for the next few days, be sure to dress appropriately.

Forecast:

Sunday: 50% chance of Snow showers for the day, clearing overnight; High: 38, Low: 26

Monday: Sunshine, Cold; High: 33, Low: 21

Tuesday: Sun and clouds, High: 31, Low: 18

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A Cold Beginning for March

For our early Saturday morning, we currently have some foggy conditions for the Bowling Green area. Please use caution when driving this morning. As with any fog event, it will all clear up later in the morning.

11Z SFC Observations (Source: College of DuPage)

Saturday will be cloudy and uninteresting, with highs in the upper 40’s and lows in the mid-lower 30’s. However, it looks as if we’ll get to see some chances for snow for our Sunday.

6Z GFS Precipitation Type (Source: College of DuPage)

Now Sunday will start off cloudy, and then around 9am, we will possibly see a rain/snow mix, and will possibly transition to only snow later in the day. Highs for Sunday will be in the low 40’s and lows will be in the lower 30’s as a cold front passes. With that in mind, it will be a very cold Monday, with highs in the upper 20’s, with lows in the upper teens. It will be a mostly sunny day.

Forecast:

Saturday: Cloudy, with morning fog; High: 49, Low: 36

Sunday: 80% chance for Rain/Snow mix in the morning, Snow in the afternoon, High: 41, Low: 30

Monday: Sunny; very cold, High: 29, Low: 17

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