Will the Warmth Last?

It was yet another sunny day in Bowling Green as we warmed to a high of 79° in the afternoon. Tomorrow could be even warmer!

Model: 0Z HRRR, Temperatures

We could beat Wednesday’s high of 79°. Winds will come from the south, bringing us a shot of warmer air- and potentially getting us to the lower 80’s. However, the price for this warmer weather is the chance for thunderstorms and gusty winds!

Model: NAMNEST, Simulated Reflectivity
Model: NAMNEST, Wind Gusts

As shown by the models above, a line of thunderstorms with gusty winds should arrive in the early morning hours on Friday. This isn’t looking like a strong event, but something for those allergen sufferers to look forward to. The pollen count has been high, coming in at 11.7 today (extreme!). Besides Friday morning, it appears there will be two more chances at rain before the weekend comes to a close.

Model: GFS, Precip

Unfortunately (or fortunately, again for those with pollen allergies), it looks like there will be a few rounds of rain this weekend. The GFS model above paints a wet picture for the next few days, especially this Sunday. With these systems moving through, we should also cool down this weekend quite a bit from what we’ve been experiencing as of late.

After 80’s Thursday, temperatures will crash back down to 50’s and 60’s as colder air works its way into the Mid-South. Sunday should warm up again before more rain arrives, but overall the pattern looks a bit cooler than average. This is why NOAA is forecasting a 30-50% probability of below normal temperatures for the region. With the active pattern ahead, we could be in for a back-and-forth swing in temperatures over the next two weeks!

Summary:

-Thursday warms back up to the lower 80’s

-Thunderstorms and gusty winds Thursday night into Friday morning

-Wet and cooler in the days to come

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A Beautiful Day!

Good afternoon everyone! This morning started off a little rough for some drivers as we had all that fog sitting over the area. Luckily by about 8:30 the majority of that fog had cleared out leaving a gorgeous, sunny day! Satellite imagery isn’t showing a lot over our are other than some clouds that are straggling behind the rain that is still hanging onto the east coast. A cold front is coming our way which will help keep temperatures comfortable for us.

There are some showers and storms in the west that will head our way, but they will not arrive until Thursday night into Friday. For now sit back and enjoy the sunny weather! There is the possibility that some areas in Kentucky could see 80° Thursday. Bowling Green looks to stay just below that as the rain tries to push its way into the area.

  • SUMMARY:
    • Tuesday:
      • High: 78
      • Low: 46
    • Wednesday:
      • High: 78
      • Low: 59
    • Thursday:
      • High: 79
      • Low: 54
      • Storms and showers will push into the area later at night towards Friday morning.

Have a fun, safe week everyone!

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Wet Start To The Week

Many of you woke up this morning to moderate rain. Luckily, most of that has moved through and to our east. As of now, we are mostly cloudy with temperatures currently in the low to mid 60’s. Moving forward into the rest of your Monday, we will stay mostly cloudy with a chance of some scattered showers this afternoon.

HRRR 14z Precipitation Type

Most of the models are in sync that we will stay mostly dry the rest of the day and into Tuesday. There is a slight chance of some scattered light showers this afternoon, but nothing long lasting or impactful. Moving into Tuesday and mid-week we can expect the sun to return.

NAM 12z Cloud Cover

Clouds will begin moving out this evening/overnight and into Tuesday before much clearer skies take over. Tuesday and Wednesday will feel very seasonal with sunny skies and high’s in the mid 70’s. A week cold front will move through Tuesday leaving us with a low in the mid 40’s Tuesday night. Enjoy the mid-week Spring feel before rain showers return toward the end of the work week.

FORECAST

Today (4/08): Mostly cloudy with a chance of lingering (light) showers this afternoon (30% chance)
High: 69
Low: 54
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with clouds decreasing overnight

Tuesday (4/09): Clouds continue decreasing into Tuesday, leaving mostly sunny skies for the day
High: 75
Low: 46
Tuesday Night: Mostly clear

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Stormy Sunday

Surface Observations (Source: College of DuPage)

A weak mid-latitude system will make a pass today, bringing rain and thunderstorms, with a chance for storms to be severe. The below map shows a widespread slight risk for severe thunderstorms, which means these storms might have low coverage and varying intensity.

Day 1 Convective Outlook (Source: SPC)

The main threats for this day are wind and hail damage; nevertheless, a tornado is always possible. These storms may have the largest impact for the afternoon and making a pass through the eastern parts of Kentucky and Tennessee for the evening. Highs for Sunday in Bowling Green can reach the mid-upper 70’s, and lows in the mid 50’s.

11Z HRRR Simulated Reflectivity (Source: College of DuPage)

For Monday, there will still be morning showers, but it will remain cloudy for the rest of the day. Highs can reach the mid 70’s, and lows will be in the upper 50’s. Tuesday could be cloudy as well, with some clearing for the afternoon. Highs will be in the mid 70’s and lows in the lower 50’s.

Forecast:

Sunday: Rain and thunderstorms, a few storms may be severe; High: 76, Low: 55

Monday: Morning showers, otherwise cloudy; High: 74, Low: 57

Tuesday: Cloudy in the morning, clearing for the afternoon; High: 75, Low: 52

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A Change in Pattern for the Weekend

If you are out driving this morning, please take care and precaution, for there will be fog for the Saturday morning commute. Otherwise, enjoy a sunny day, for a high pressure field centers itself just over Kentucky.

Surface Observations (Source: College of DuPage)

Highs for Saturday will be very enjoyable in the mid-lower 70’s, and lows will be in the upper 40’s. Sunday will see some storm action, and severe weather may return to the mid-South. These storms might be the most intense for the afternoon hours of Sunday. Highs for Sunday could be in the mid 70’s, and lows could reach the mid 50’s. Monday could see similar patterns in the morning, but then it might clear up for the afternoon. Highs for Monday will reach the upper 70’s and lows will be in the mid 50’s.

6Z GFS SLP and Precipitation (Source: College of DuPage)

Forecast:

Saturday: Foggy morning, otherwise Sunny; High: 74, Low: 48

Sunday: Thunderstorms, a few maybe severe; High: 75, Low: 56

Monday: Morning rain/t-storms; High: 77, Low: 55

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Bringing Back the 80s and We’re Not Talking About the Decade!

We were definitely socked in the clouds today and we won’t be breaking out of them for at the least the overnight hours as some higher clouds, represented by the brighter colors in the imagery, start to move in from the west.

GOES- East Satellite Infrared Imagery valid for 9pm CDT

Set-Up:

A stalled out frontal boundary to our south with start to lift northward as a warm front throughout the day tomorrow helping to usher in some much warmer temperatures as well as moisture content. Most of the day on Saturday remains dry. We’ll have to watch out for scattered shower chances out ahead of the approaching warm front. By Sunday we will be well established in the warm sector. Depending of how much sun we will see, storms could be a possibility Sunday evening out ahead of a approaching cold front from the west. Temperatures on Sunday will be flirting with the 80 degree mark for the first time this season! Some of the storms on Sunday could be strong to severe if the instability is able to establish itself over the region. Confidence for strong storms is low at this time. Here is the 0Z(7 pm) run of the NAM model’s depiction of how Sunday COULD unfold.

0Z NAM Simulated Composite Reflectivity valid for Sunday morning around 4am CDT.

Showers possible early Sunday morning ahead of that warm front. The showers should clear out shortly after sunrise keeping a small part of the day dry. Showers and storms return, however, by early afternoon.


0Z NAM Simulated Composite Reflectivity valid for Sunday afternoon around 1pm CDT.

Shower and storm chances hang on for the start to the workweek as another system approaches from the southwest dragging across the TN Valley through the day on Monday.

36 Hour Forecast:

Tonight: We hold onto the clouds overnight with lows falling into the low 50s. Calm winds.

Saturday: Partly cloudy skies with temps in the upper 70s across the region. Winds light out of the SW.

Saturday Night: Scattered showers late with lows staying in the upper 50s. Winds light out of the SW.

Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds out of the S at 7-13 mph, gusting at times to 23.

Stay weather aware this weekend by following these Social Media Accounts:

@wkustormteam @WKUweather

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Rain Chances are on the Increase

Good afternoon folks!

A shortwave trough noticeable at 500mb is currently over the eastern Great Plains and will continue to move east into our area heading into tonight. As the small disturbance moves our way, it will bring along with it the chance of some showers. It’ll be soggy for most of overnight hours and gradually clear as the disturbance moves east.

Heading into tomorrow, the rain will be well east of the area and it will dry out. The area will remain under cloud cover. Temperatures during the day will stay in the mid-to-upper 60s.

High pressure will begin to settle into the western parts of the Ohio Valley heading into Friday night and Saturday. Saturday will be absolutely gorgeous with partly sunny skies and highs around the area reaching the low-to-mid 70s.

A more active pattern will setup heading into Sunday as an upper-level trough builds in from the west, allowing the winds to shift to a more southwesterly flow. This will allow more moisture and instability to move into the region. Confidence is still low on the severe weather threat on Sunday, because we are four days away. But as time progresses and we move closer to Sunday, things can definitely change so tune into the WKU Meteorology Blog or WSWX for further updates.

Tonight: Showers likely, mainly between 9pm and 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 54. South wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light southeast after midnight. 

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 75.

Sunday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78.

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Rain Chances on the Way!

It has been a beautiful start to the week! Warm temperatures and sunny skies made for quite a nice past few days. But here comes the rain again!

0Z NAMNEST Simulated Reflectivity: Now Until Early Saturday Morning

0Z NAM Precipitation Type: Now Until Early Saturday Morning

With the pleasant weather as of late, tree pollen has been pretty high. For all those with pollen allergies, Thursday night will be a relief! Models (such as the ones posted above) are all in agreement with a pretty decent rain for this area Thursday evening into Friday early morning. A good night to sleep with the windows open!

0Z NAMNEST Surface Temps

Before the rain, Thursday will be warm again! We could see temperatures climb to the lower 70s before the rain arrives in the evening. However, as the model above is hinting at, cooler temperatures are expected for Friday following the rain.

There could be a chance for a few thunderstorms this weekend, so be sure to stay up to date with the latest from our blog!

Thursday: High of 71, Low of 50 and Rain in the Evening

Friday: High of 65, Low of 52 and Early AM Rain

Saturday: Clear and Warmer, Middle to Upper 70s Possible

Sunday: Chance for Thunderstorms?

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Spring Weather Will Turn Rainy Again

Good afternoon everyone! I hope you all are enjoying this gorgeous day as temperatures hit 60° and flowers are in bloom. Satellite imagery shows little to no clouds around the area.

Thankfully we still have tomorrow to enjoy the weather before a cold front moves in with rain and possible storms.

Rain will arrive for Thursday with the majority falling in the afternoon hours to Friday morning. Most of the models have a quarter to half an inch which looking at the data I would agree.

  • SUMMARY:
    • Tuesday:
      • High: 61
      • Low: 42
    • Wednesday:
      • High: 70
      • Low: 45
    • Thursday:
      • High: 68
      • Low: 54
      • Precipitation: 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain with most of it falling in the afternoon and at night.

Stay safe and have a great week!

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Cool Start to the Work Week

A cold front has moved through this past weekend bringing back much cooler temperatures. Fortunately, we will see temperatures back in the 70’s by mid week. We will also see lots of sunshine for the start of the work week, thanks to a high pressure system currently sitting on the northern KY/ Ohio state line. Plan for this high pressure system to move out relatively quick before another moves in from the south (currently located in Texas).

As for today, expect another chilly day filled with sunny skies. Tuesday we will warm a bit getting back into the lower 60’s. We will stay clear until mid week when the next low pressure system, bringing rain, makes its way back into our region. The only issues there could be moving into tomorrow is the formation of frost. As dew point readings are expected to be in the mid 30’s tonight and the low likely to be in the lower to mid 30’s, frost is possible. Remember to protect any plants/flowers that may be important to you.

FORECAST

Today (4/01): Mostly sunny and chilly
High: 54
Low: 34
Tonight: Mostly clear with frost formation possible overnight

Tuesday (4/02): Mostly sunny and warmer
High: 62
Low: 39
Tuesday Night: Mostly clear

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