Happy New year to all!
1. I want to touch up mainly on the impacts of Sunday’s front plus a look a quick shot of winter for the region early next week.
2. Back to the last forecast feel good overall that a comparison of forecast highs Friday here was dead on while the NWS and many other forecasts were to cool back when the forecast for a high of 60 Friday was made. Hopefully we at WKU can keep up the good work!
3. A frontal boundary will move the region Sunday with an increase in clouds overnight to end 2011 as well as a nice surge of warm air advection to keep temperatures in the 40’s overnight.
4. Cold air advection behind the front will make it hard for temperatures to reach 50 Sunday before falling in the afternoon back into the 40’s. A passing shower can’t be ruled out as well. Winds will increase as well from 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
5. Monday the flow will be out of the northwest with winds of 20-25 mph and higher gusts. We would need a northerly flow Monday night for some snow shower activity with enhanced fetch off Lake Michigan. As it stands on the bluegrass, northern and Eastern KY have a shot at a few snow showers while BG remains dry perhaps a mostly cloudy sky for a while Monday night due to the passage of a vort max. I’m going with highs in the mid 30’s Monday which agrees with guidance after starting out near 30. Not sure what up with forecasts having highs near 40 Monday.
6. Tuesday should have a chilly start with lows near 20 and highs near 30 winds will be lighter only in the 5-10 mph range.
WOW! temperature spike from 41 to 56 at night to start 2012. That is some strong WAA. Credit is due to the ECMWF which did have this rapid WAA surge.