Winter weather advisory in effect for Thursday afternoon till Friday morning*
Highlights
– Falling temperatures, along with snowy and windy conditions Thursday
– Slick travel expected Thursday night and Friday morning
– Weak clipper system Saturday night with a chance for flurries,
better chance of snow stays north
Forecast: A strong cold front will move through in the morning
allowing temperatures to drop sharply from the 40’s Thursday morning
to the upper 20’s by evening and around 20 by Friday morning. Rain
showers should develop by late morning changing to snow between 1 and
3 pm. Snow showers then will be likely Thursday afternoon and evening
diminishing to flurries for Friday. Most areas will see some light
snow accumulations with a few isolated high totals around or slightly
over 1 inch where heavy snow showers fall with most spots from a
dusting to 3/4 inch. Snow will fall with temperatures below freezing
late Thursday afternoon and night leading to development of slick
spots on roads. In addition enough instability may be present for
locally heavy snow showers perhaps even with a rumble of thunder from
mid to late Thursday afternoon. These heavier snow showers may allow
roads to become quickly snowcovered at times. In addition winds are
expected to increase from 15-25 mph with higher gusts out of the west
causing a potential for blowing snow. Overall travel due to wintry
weather may become a little tricky from late Thursday afternoon into
Friday morning even though snow amounts are not foretasted to be all
that high due to blowing snow, increased snowfall rates and falling
temperatures. Highs Friday should reach 30 with mostly cloudy skies
and patchy flurries winds will diminish some to around 10 mph, still a
cold day. On Saturday with a mix of clouds and sun highs should reach
the upper 30’s to low 40’s after lows around 20. Attention turns to a
clipper system Saturday night, current forecast thoughts take this
clipper overhead which would increase clouds and bring a period of
light snow to southern Indiana along with central and southeast
Kentucky only giving our region some flurries Saturday night. If the
clipper were to track further to the south then light accumulations of
perhaps 1 inch could occur, right now this should stay north of our
region, but confidence is not that high at this time. Lows will be in
the mid to upper 20’s Saturday night which again could lead to slick
spots if snow does fall. Winds overall should range from 5-10 mph out
of the west for Friday and Saturday. By Sunday a warmer southwest flow
should move into the region with mostly sunny skies after morning
clouds depart from the weak clipper system and highs in the low to mid
40’s. This forecast period features some wintry weather and likely end
all talk of a snowless winter but it should noted long range
indications show a return to the mild and sometimes wet pattern after
this forecast period perhaps lasting through months end. Another
statement will be issued around noon for benefit of school officials
needing up to date information for early release decisions. Another
statement will be issued Thursday night for schools on Friday. In the
unlikely event Saturdays clipper comes further south another statement
will be issued for that.
Lead forecaster: MWG
Why will it snow Thursday?
– I showed the nice 500 mb vort max moving through yesterday.
– the Omega lift looks very impressive on the SREF from noon to 4 pm.
– A deep dendritic growth zone is present on the modeled soundings for the afternoon and evening
– instability will be due to steep low level lapse rates and some CAPE thus the outside chance for thunder
– The snow will be tracked throughout the day here!
Saturday’s clipper
– almost all of these go to the north
– It’s the kiss of death to have one in the region 7 days out that means it’s to strong and tracks further north.
– This one is week and the upper air pattern shows it has a shot to track into KY. Though I think it tracks over us which still brings any light snow to the bluegrass and southeast KY.