The mild winter influenced by La Niña and very positive NAO and AO continues as a ridge of high pressure is in place over the East Coast providing solid warm air advection into the Mid South this morning.
The day will start off cold, but the southerly flow will bring in more warm and moist air and allow temperatures to reach into the upper 50s, and set the stage for a rain event come mid week as a trough will pass through the area by Thursday. Temperatures will rebound quickly and a second system will send a wave of energy through the mid south bringing bigger chances of rain for Sunday.
For the midweek event, the GFS is not as aggressive as the NAM is with the cold air. Based on the abnormally warm nature of the pattern in place, a solution closer to the GFS is a good bet. As for the Sunday precipitation, the GFS is suggesting a very warm set-up—much too warm for any wintry precipitation. There could even be the chance for severe weather on Sunday, but that is a very remote possibility as of now. The SPC does not have anything plotted for Sunday in regards to convective activity.