It is an absolutely beautiful Saturday in south-central Kentucky. A ridge of high pressure over Bowling Green (Figure 1) kept skies clear overnight, and fair weather will hang around until Sunday night. The Saturday morning low temperature was 42 degrees, and the afternoon high will be in the lower 70s. Sunday will be very similar to Saturday, with sunny skies and highs in the lower 70s. Get in your outdoor activities before the end of the weekend, folks, because Monday morning will be a return to dreary November weather.
Figure 1. 6 AM Saturday 500 mb Analysis.
A deep 500 mb trough (Figure 1) is located over the western United States and this feature will swing across the Plains today and into our area later on Sunday. At the surface, the pressure gradient will tighten as the mid-latitude cyclone approaches, which will provide gusty winds on Sunday. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 can be expected. The surface low pressure center is expected to track northeast towards Lake Superior and then into Canada. The system will feature a long cold front extending the full width of the U.S. (Figure 2) Current models have the front arriving Monday morning, so expect widespread showers and isolated storms overnight Sunday night into Monday morning.
Figure 2. Surface cold front at 6 AM CST Monday.
At this time, severe weather is not expected with the passage of the cold front. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) is forecasting system rainfall totals in the 0.50″ – 0.75″ range through 6 AM Tuesday morning (Figure 3).
Figure 3. System total precipitation through Tuesday morning.
Polar air will flow into southcentral Kentucky on Monday behind the cold front, so expect the temperature to drop during the day on Monday from the mid 50s down to the upper 40s. The clouds are expected to clear out to the east by Monday evening, so Monday night will be cold. The overnight low will be in the upper 20s, and Tuesday will be sunny with highs in the upper 40s.
Bowling Green, KY Forecast:
Saturday: Sunny. High 72.
Saturday Night: Clear. Low 46
Sunday: Sunny and windy. High 72.
Sunday Night: Showers and isolated storms. Overnight low in the mid 50s, dropping throughout the day Monday.
Monday: Cloudy. High 52, dropping into the upper 40s.
Monday Night: Clear. Low 29.