After a busy weather weekend, conditions have begin to calm down just a bit with clear and milder temperatures across the state. High pressure will continue to shift over our region towards the east near Pennsylvania/New York by this evening. Highs for your Wednesday are expected to reach the upper 40’s, low 50’s with mostly sunny skies. Winds will be light and variable through much of the day before shifting to a more southerly wind by Thursday. These southerly winds will be ahead of an advancing trough from the Central Plains as our region looks to be between two systems associated with this trough. The models continue to show our best chance at some light precipitation with the northern system as we head into Thursday evening and early Friday morning. Models continue to indicate weak isentropic lift in between the two systems by Thursday evening, leaving the area a chance to see some isolated – scattered showers move through.
GFS 500mb Heights & Vorticity valid for Friday 12Z.
GFS MSLP, PCPN (In.) and 1000-500mb Thickness valid for Friday 12Z.
The latest GFS run for 500mb Heights and Vorticity map shows the northern disturbance over the Great Lakes with a progression towards the northeast. As far as concerns for precipitation, a light rain event will primarily dominate this event as the GFS precipitation and thickness map hints towards this possibility with 0.01 – 0.10 inches of rain accumulation. Conditions for your Thursday look to stay dry through the morning hours under partly sunny skies. Temperatures look to warm up nicely by the afternoon hours with a high around 58º. Heading into the evening and overnight hours, we’ll see the best chance for showers with a low around 42º under mostly cloudy skies. Expect the heaviest rains to occur through the evening and overnight hours as we’ll see another high pressure build back into the region by Friday. Clearing skies accompanied by cooler conditions will be the main talk of the day. Low to mid 40’s will be expected state wide with light winds from the northwest.