A weak surface low supported by a positively tilted trough may bring an accumulating mix of wintry precipitation to the northern half of Kentucky Monday night into early Tuesday. The surface low is expected to track along the Ohio River, which will allow enough warm air to surge northward to bring rain into northern KY and southern IN during the day Tuesday, which will create a sloppy, wet mess.
Southern KY, including Bowling Green, will be all rain for this particular storm, although there is a chance for some non-accumulating snow showers after the passage of the cold front Tuesday night. The SE ridge has been suppressed by the recent arctic blast, which should limit the NW trend that has affected so many other storms this winter. Since this storm has a positively tilted trough, warm advection will be much more limited than previous storms, which is why northern KY may receive a couple of inches of wet snow, sleet, and freezing rain Monday night. If the models do trend NW with the surface low over the next couple of runs, the amount of accumulating wintry precipitation across northern KY could be lower than currently predicted by the NWS, which is predicting 2-4″ of snow for areas north of Elizabethtown.