I have no major changes to the long-range forecast since my last post on Friday. After a light rain/snow event Wednesday night into Thursday, an arctic blast will commence late Friday and last through the beginning of the workweek with temperatures similar to the early January cold blast (highs lower 20s/lows lower teens). There may be a few flurries around on the weekend but nothing more.
A Rex block will develop over the West coast early next week which will create a split flow pattern that will keep the core of the cold air north of the Mid-South after the inital arctic blast this weekend. The resulting split flow pattern will also keep any major storms from forming along the baroclinic zone until the western cut-off ejects out of the Southwest. This probably won’t happen until late next week (click here for the recent GFS solution). Once this low ejects I think the rest of the month will be mild and wet across the Mid-South, as I previously mentioned in Friday’s post.