Trough moves westward: mid-month warmup!

The GFS ensembles and ECMWF continue to show the westward trend in the mean longwave trough over the United States. This suggests at least a break in the recent cold NW flow pattern that Kentucky has been in since mid-November. Some model solutions hint at a SW flow that would mean a return to the 50s and 60s while others show more of a cool zonal flow that would keep temperatures near seasonal averages. I’ll have more on this idea this weekend.