Don’t worry it’s still coming. For those of you wanting to leave school or even WKU early for the snow will be disappointed as all of the model data now does not start the snow till mid or late afternoon, however the new RUC as of 1 am starts the precip around 1 pm. The good news out of that is the snow will be falling and with colder temperatures allows for the possibility of higher ratios say 12:1 with temperatures in the 20’s.
Snow should overspread the region late Friday afternoon and become hvy at times Friday night before tapering off Saturday. The main question continues to be exactly how the precipitation is distributed throughout the storm for the region the NAM and UKMET models are very similar keeping some the deeper moisture to our south while the GFS the 00z GFS Ensemble mean, NOGAPS and Canadian allow for more of the deeper moisture to move into the region at the height of the storm. looking at the Nam it was a little odd with a precip min spot in Western Kentucky still hitting Missouri and eastern Kentucky hard.
Overall i can’t go much different than the 5-9 inches the nws put out Thursday pm with the moister models now bringing 8 or so and the dryer models bringing 5. However the 00z gfs has over a foot of snow about 30 miles south of BWG and only a couple of inches in E-town so any shifts in the track will affect this forecast.
MG
the 12z nam took a big upward jump with precip totals however once again the 540 line is overhead during parts of the event that may allow sleet to mix in.
12z gfs puts a lot of mositure transporting north into the thunderstorm convection over the deep south which is known as convective feedback. totals are quite a bit less. right now the range from both of these models is from 5-12 inches still 12 hrs out which is a large range given how close we are to this storm.