We’ve seen the NWS go from a dusting after the issuance of this forecast to a winter storm watch for 4-6 inches back to the 2-4 forecasted here yesterday. That shows the uncertainty level with this storm. Tonight is a mesoscale analysis on what will happen.
radar
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php
make sure to go the mesonet page for temps!
Rain is currently falling across the region with temperatures near 40. the freezing line is charging east into christian county at this time. This line will slowly move east overnight reaching our region after midnight. However conditions aloft with heavy precipitation support a changeover to snow perhaps mixing with sleet around midnight. Some of the modeling this afternoon is suggesting that snow lasts till noon on Wednesday now with several hours of steady snow in the subfreezing air overnight through Wednesday morning which will result in slicker roads than previously thought. Snow may be heavy at times with the potential for banding with the snowfall that are slow moving all of these factors may require us to raise snow amounts overnight and the NWS to issue a winter storm warning for our region. Currently we will wait till the changeover occurs before deciding on any changes to totals. Right now thinking of 2-4 inches after midnight till noon on Wednesday with difficult travel conditions for the morning commute to work or school with snow ongoing. This system has been the most difficult to forecast this winter season in terms of any change to a small detail can result in little or excessive snowfall. Another update will be released once the changeover is starting to occur in our region. A winter weather advisory remains in effect.
lead forecaster:MWG
very heavy period of snow moving into the region as nashville has moderate rain this snow will move into Bowling green around midnight. the changeover should be complete by 12 am.
reports of 6 inches in western ky. STN WRF also picking up on up to .5 qpf overnight.