- Thursday: Sunny with a high near 64° and a low near 35°.
- Friday: Sunny with a high near 68° and a low near 42°.
- Saturday: Clouds increasing throughout the day. Highs near 65° and lows near 40°.
- Sunday: Rain showers likely, with possible snow overnight. Highs near 45° and lows near 32°.
We couldn’t ask for a better situation to have and be thankful for the weather. The weather for Thursday and Friday is going to have include temperatures well above average for this time of the year. Our climatological average for late November shows high temperatures around the mid 50s and lows ranging between 32° F and 35° F. All of the pleasant weather will move away, however, late Saturday night heading into Sunday morning with the arrival of an approaching cold front.
High pressure at the surface will quickly move out of the area early Saturday, but will dominate the weather over the course of the next two days. This feature, combined with a ridge aloft will provide for relatively cloudless skies and temperatures that are well above average for this time of the year. However, a strong jet streak that is currently intensifying a storm in the Gulf of Alaska will propagate to the east just in time to strengthen a developing trough in the northern Plains and cause it to dig southward toward the southeast. An associated surface low will be centered over Wisconsin and under the front-left quadrant of the jet streak in the eastern portion of this trough, causing the necessary forcing for divergent air in the upper levels and strengthening of the low. The deepening low and increasing pressure gradient will help to pull in a much colder air mass that will be pinched off by the trough, cause showers and possibly early Monday morning snow and keep rain chances around through the early part of next week.
This trough over the Midwest will pinch off an upper level low and keep persistent rain chances in the forecast through early next week.
Storms that do occur on Saturday and Sunday are not currently expected to reach severe limits as available moisture will be a limiting factor. Moreover, weak lapse rates and warmer air aloft will inhibit any significant vertical velocities in existing thunderstorms.
Under what could finally be officially labeled as a La Niña, stormy conditions and above average rainfall are likely to continue. Shown below are graphics from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center detailing typical weather patterns of a La Niña event.
Shown in the bottom picture are the jet stream and rainfall patterns typical of a La Nina.
Model forecasted Niño 3.4 region temperature anomalies indicate a weak to moderate La Niña persisting into the beginning of next year. This, in combination with the build up of cold air along the Canadian border could mean an active winter for the Midwest and Northeast.
The blue line shows a moderate La Nina sticking around through next spring.
This is certainly something to keep an eye on for the long term. Areas that were hammered during last year’s winter may see another active winter season given the right storm moving in.