sneak attack wintry mix chances to miss the region, rainy Wednesday

1.  Once again by day 3 in the last forecast temperatures were to cool. Since this has happened a few times now I will go a few degrees above the warmest guidence and see if that works. I also suspect something may be a little off with the Bowling Green ASOS as well being 2-4*F warmer than most anything else around it.

2. Clouds will increase by Monday morning however it looks the advection of low level cold air which prompted a concern for a slight chance of a wintry mix will not move in with temperatures to start the day around 40 highs will be from 50-55. However weak systems will still pass just to our south along a old frontal boundary prompting a small chance for rain showers early. winds should be from 5-10 mph out of the north.

3. Tuesday winds will be more out of the west at 5-10 mph. Skies will be mostly sunny as we’ll be between a system off shore and a closed low in the south. lows should range from 32-37 with highs in the 54-59 range. Once again another Jan day where highs could get close to 60 BOOO! Even with the cold blast we’re 5*F above normal for the month, yuck.

4. Clouds will increase as rain develops by sunrise winds will turn more out of the southeast 5-10 mph. Wednesday will be rainy most of the day with 1/3-1/2 inch of rain, locally higher amounts. The rain should diminish to patchy light rain showers at night. Some slight advection of instabilty marked by decreasing LI values and very low CAPE values is possibile and result in a rumble of thunder. That of course assumes a low track overhead the ECMWF slightly further southeast track would not allow for this instabilty advection. Highs should be in the 50’s after lows in the 40’s.The QPF total fits the SREF fairly good and is a little lower than most guidance due to concerns over convective feedback and the track of the low not being favorable for the highest rain totals.

5. It will get colder for a few days again late this week. The 12z ECMWF from Sunday does provide a low chance for snow Saturday but I’m not hopeful. Maybe a few flurries Thursday night. Still looking more and more likely by the day we have a shot at tieing 2nd place for a winter record of a trace in the least snowiest winter department set back in 1949-50,1956-57 ( Still one of the two  analogs on my list!) and 1918-19. If we don’t get any snow through the spring then we have the least snowiest winter in Bowling Green History which ties the mark of 1918-19 and 1949-50.


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