1. It looks like the western option for the low track for Wednesday, Over the region will turn out correct. Also with timing a few hours faster now concerns over thunderstorms in the gulf taking away moisture known as convective feedback is less. The SREF and operational models have responded by increasing QPF into the 1-2 inch range. Some heavy rainfall rates may occur Wednesday morning. A key to the much lower QPF forecast in the last update was a further southeast low track that looks unlikely now. I think most of us will be around an inch of rain.
2. Winds become light for a while Tuesday this lead to a few things. Mainly radiational cooling leading to lows a few degrees colder than advertised and highs never recovered. Also the formation of Freezing fog occurred in spots.
3. Snow showers are likely Thursday and I will detail this more on Wednesday. This may end my talk of a historic snow-less winter even if it’s a few tenths of an inch. The ECMWF has really ramped up the threat picking up on an impulse and threat the lakes are running very warm now ready to transport moisture southeast.
The GFS model has it as well moving into the region. The trough moving in will lead to a more normal pattern for this time of the year a few days.
Notice another impulse off the southwest coast. Yesterday the GFS had a winter storm from this cutting across the country but today the GFS has turned around to the ECMWF point of view and cuts it into the lakes. Another rain maker early next week around here and this solution matches the tanking – PNA.
winter weather adv for Thursday afternoon into Friday by the NWS. Forecast update later today/tonight.