This has the looks of a major severe weather event in the region for Friday afternoon and evening. A strong surge of moisture and instability will once again move northward through the region Friday afternoon with dewpoints over 60*F and Convective alivable potential energy (CAPE) values from 1000-1500 J/KG by late afternoon. A warm front will push through in the morning with the LLJ interacting with the warm front will produce some showers and storms in the morning from north to south with clearing by midday. Similar to the last event shear parameters will be more than sufficient for a severe threat.
Our region has the best chance in the warm sector to reach the higher CAPE values of around 1500 J/KG. The higher CAPE values coupled with steeping lapse rates will promote an enviroment capable of having storms producing large hail.
Storm motions will be very quick as well coupled with a strong upper level jet moving through damaging winds will be a widespread threat.
By early afternoon scattered supercells will develop over Western Kentucky and move toward us around mid-afternoon. These scattered supercells will have hail cores and hook echos as well more than likely. Tornadoes may be found in the hook echos. These supercells will organize into a linear fashion by evening with the overall main threat evolving into damaging winds. Like with the squall line on Wednesday any storm along it may develop rotation with little notice though the strongest tornadoes should be with any supercells.
– scattered supercells for mid-afternoon/early evening
– line of storms in the evening
– upgrade to high risk by SPC possible.
My main concern is from the late afternoon supercells. However the squall line will have widespread severe weather. The best chance of having a bust with this event is from morning showers and storms limiting instability. I don’t think that will be to much of a limiting factor. I will comment with rapid fire posts similar to Wednesday.
As we head into next week it won’t feel like spirng break. The day 7 NWS forecast for Monday may bust by 15*F. As a clipper moves through with a mix of rain and snow showers. Temps should stay just above freezing for accums. Highs will only be in the 40’s with a raw nw flow. Quite a turnaround. As usual with a clippers a snow swath of 1-2 inches will track to our north across the bluegrass and eastern KY.