Saturday kicked off the weekend on a relatively nice note. A cool morning eventually led to partly sunny skies and slightly warmer conditions across the region. Highs across the area quickly warmed up after a chilly start as temperatures topped out in the mid to upper 70’s statewide. A warm front moving through the region brought somewhat of a change back to above normal conditions after much of the week offered cooler than average temperatures. This noticeable change will come behind gusty southerly winds as high pressure begins to shift towards the Atlantic and low pressure develops across the Central Plains.
HPC/NOAA Current Surface Analysis
Current surface analysis shows the development of the low over the Central Plains with the cold front extending into parts of the Oklahoma/Texas panhandle. The warm front stretches from parts of South Dakota over to Ohio and in return has continued to advect the warmer air over the region. Heading into the evening and overnight hours, the current set up will allow for a milder low than we’ve seen lately. Low’s are expected to bottom out around the 60 degree mark for Bowling Green, as other areas across the state will see temperatures drop into the upper 50’s under mostly cloudy skies. Pressure gradients will tighten up overnight bringing very windy conditions across the area. Expect sustained winds around 15-25 mph with the possibility of winds gusting up to 40+ mph.
Looking ahead for your Sunday, a cold front will move across the Ohio Valley region Sunday afternoon/evening. Ahead of this front, expect a line of showers and storms to develop in the warm sector. Surface-500mb bulk shear winds showing strong values ranging 40-50 knots leading to the possibility of decent development of storms.
Surface-500mb Bulk Shear Map valid for 18Z Sunday. Areas over the Ohio Valley region showing strong wind values ranging from 40-50 knots.
Instability over the area will remain the key factor in the development of any strong to severe storms. CAPE values continue to lack but still look to provide enough energy with values ranging from 750-1300 J/Kg. Southerly flow will allow temperatures to warm in the mid to upper 70’s as dew points climb into the mid 60’s. Precipitable water amounts range from about 1.4-1.8 inches statewide with relative humidity values reaching greater than 70%. The latest SPC forecast shows some agreement as the forecast shows s SLIGHT risk for much of the state for Sunday.
SPC Categorical Outlook for Sunday. Showing a SLIGHT risk for severe storms across the Commonwealth.
The low will continue to track towards the northeast into northern Illinois and eventually over the Great Lakes region by Sunday night. The cold front will slide through the area bringing a slight risk of storms with the main threat of heavy rain, gusty winds, and the possibility of hail. As far as the amount of precipitation expected with these storms, the HPC seems to think a decent rainfall will occur. Areas just to our west could receive a decent amount of rainfall ranging from 1-2 inches, with higher amounts to the north.
HPC’s QPF map showing a decent rainfall for the Central Plains area extending northward into the Great Lakes region.
The front should arrive by the late afternoon/evening hours and will continue to track eastward across the state. Rain should move out of the area overnight Sunday night with cooler temperatures filtering in from the northwest. Expect lows in the mid-50’s with clearing skies and light northwest winds around 5-10 mph.
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Outlook:
Monday: Mostly sunny…High: 67. Northwest winds 5-10 mph.
Monday Night: Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, mostly clear…Low: 44. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny…High: 68. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday Night: Partly Cloudy….Low:49. Southwest winds around 5 mph.