As mentioned yesterday we would have to keep a close eye on the temperatures here in south-central Kentucky to see what type of precipitation would fall tonight. Temperatures have risen to 35 at the airport as of 1’oclock Meanwhile the Kentucky mesonet shows temperatures hovering around the freezing mark. The key is that dewpoints are still near 30 degrees and as precipitation begins to fall the temperature will cool down toward the dewpoint temperature by a process called evaporative cooling. That’s not so say that temperatures will cool to 30 but they may fall just below freezing. If this indeed occurs sleet and freezing rain will fall across south-central Kentucky. Some areas could receive up to 0.25 inches of ice, especially from I-65 and to the northwest. Some sleet accumulation is also possible but I think that will be further to the north and west where less melting will occur in the atmosphere. Rain will probably fall more so in places such as Simpson and Barren counties but will likely be mixed with sleet and temperatures could cool enough to turn rain into freezing rain. The temperatures will need to continue to be monitored as the precipitation moves in.
Summary:
-Precipitation will move in between 2 and 4.
-Precipitation may start as plan ole rain mixed with some sleet in locations such as Warren, Simpson, Allen and Barren Co. However precipitation will likely start and continue as sleet and freezing rain in locations further north and west such as Logan, Butler, Edmonson, and Grayson Counties.
-Temperatures should cool a degree or two after precipitation begins which could allow for locations such as Bowling Green to dip below freezing and thus allowing precip to change to freezing rain. The amount of sleet mixed in may also bring down temperatures.
-Temperatures will need to be monitored closely as a degree or two will mean the difference in an Ice Storm and just a cold rain.
-An Ice Storm is possible with up too 0.25+ inches of ice which could bring down some tree limbs. Over an inch of sleet is also possible especially northwest of a line from Russellville to Morgantown to Edmonson Co. These same areas stand the best chance at an Ice Storm, including NW Warren Co but all areas in south-central KY will likely be impacted by freezing rain and sleet.