Daily Forecasts:
Sunday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a low near 54. South to southwest winds 3-8 mph.
Monday: Partly to at times mostly cloudy and warm with a high near 77. Breezy with south to southwest winds at 10-20 mph.
Monday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy skies with a low around 59. South to southwest winds at 3-8 mph.
Tuesday: Mostly to partly sunny skies with a high around 80. South to southwest winds 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a low near 60. South winds from 5-10 mph.
Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy a warm with a high near 80.
Thursday: Increasing clouds Wednesday night with a 70% chance of thunderstorms after midnight and into the morning hours. Some storms could be severe. Temperatures will drop from the 60s early into the 50s.
Discussion:
After a chilly and much below average March and even a cool start to April, spring has finally made it’s two and half week late arrival this weekend… better late than never! Temperatures soared into the 70s both Saturday and Sunday, in fact, the high of 76 at the Bowling Green Airport makes today the warmest day so far in 2013 and the warmest since October of 2012! It’s unlikely that will be the last time we can make that statement this week as temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 70s through the first half of the week. It’s even possible that some locations in south-central Kentucky crack the 80 degree mark on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperatures have finally warmed thanks to a zonal flow in the upper levels (as opposed to a trough which would bring in cold air) combined with a high pressure system located over the southeast. This surface high in the southeast along with a low pressure to our west have brought warm and moist southerly winds into Bowling Green. This pattern will hold through Thursday and thus until then warm temperatures will continue. A few disturbances will pass just to our north through the first half of the week and thus the occasional stray shower or storm is possible. This will also create a mix of clouds and sun through the first half of the week.
The southerly flow (red arrows) created by the low pressure to our west and the high pressure to our east will keep the warm weather in place through Wednesday.
Wednesday night into Thursday morning is when the storm system to our west will finally move east and into our area. Anytime you have very warm air ahead of a strong system there is the risk of severe weather and this is in fact the case Thursday morning. At this time confidence is increasing that a squall line will push through Kentucky late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Of course the exact timing is too difficult to pinpoint at this time. Severe weather in the form of high winds and spin up tornadoes appear possible but this is very contingent on all the right conditions coming together. This system is still days away and thus the specifics and details are yet to be determined but at least be aware that severe storms are possible in the aforementioned time frame. Further updates will be given here on the WKU meteorology blog addressing the severe weather potential. Until then, stay tuned and enjoy the warm spring temperatures.
Day 4 severe weather outlook as of Sunday places the severe weather threat just to our west on Wednesday.